Handicapping the Arkansas Derby

Whitmore - OP - Gallop - 040816-Coady Photography
Coady Photography

With the 2016 Kentucky Derby fast approaching, the field is finally taking shape for the “greatest 2-minutes in sports.” In fact, there is only one major prep race left on the schedule. That race would be the Arkansas Derby to be run on April 16 at Oaklawn Park Race Track in Hot Springs, Arkansas. The race will be run at a 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3-year-olds, running for a purse of $1,000,000.

It’s worth noting that horses coming out of the Arkansas Derby have had a bit of success moving on to Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby. It was just last year that American Pharaoh swept through both The Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby on his way to becoming the first horse in 37 years to win horse racing’s Triple Crown (Kentucky Derby, Preakness, The Belmont). Other Arkansas Derby/Kentucky Derby winners include Sunny’s Halo (1983) and Smarty Jones (2004).


This year’s favorite for Arkansas’ premiere horse race figures to be Cupid. Cupid is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia. Baffert is the same trainer who worked his magic to make American Pharaoh the best horse in the world last year. Much like American Pharaoh, Cupid is coming off of a hard fought front-running victory in The Rebel Stakes ay Oaklawn.

Other contenders figure to be Creator for the connections of Winstar Farms/Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana, Suddenbreakingnews for the connections of Sam Henderson/Donnie Von Hemel/Luis Quinonez and Whitmore for the connections of La Penta and Rosenblum/Ron Moquett/Irad Ortiz Jr. These three horses represent the 3rd, 5th and 2nd place finishers, respectively, in The Rebel.

Handicapping the Race

Cupid – In the 1 1/16 mile Rebel, Cupid was sent right to the lead from the three hole. The early fractions were fast at 22 4/5 for the quarter and 46 4/5 for the half. On a day when front-runners were having a lot of success, Cupid was able to maintain a safe margin until they turned into the stretch. After losing a little momentum by breaking inwards, Garcia righted the ship and Cupid was able to hold the closers at bay. This was Cupid’s second victory in two chances around two turns.

Whitmore – After almost collaring Cupid at the top of the stretch in The Rebel, Whitmore hung a little in mid-stretch to end up finishing 2nd, 1 ¼ lengths back. In the race, Whitmore raced mid-pack and might have been victimized by jockey Ortiz Jr. moving just a tad too early. Whitmore also finished 2nd in the Southwest Stakes behind Suddenbreakingnews,

Suddenbreakingnews – Coming of an impressive victory in the Southwest, Suddenbreakingnews went off as the favorite in The Rebel. As Usual, he broke at the back of the field from post 14 with 13 horses in from of him. While the exact same setup earned him a win in the Southwest, he encountered a lot of traffic and had to steady at the 5/16 pole just as he started his big run. The post, traffic and trouble surely cost him more than the 4-¾ lengths he finished behind Cupid.

Creator – In The Rebel, Creator was coming off his maiden win in his sixth attempt. In that maiden victory, he used a big run from the back of the pack to runoff by over 7 lengths. In the Rebel, he broke slow and raced five wide on the far turn and into the stretch. After losing to Cupid by only 3 lengths, one would have to figure he lost that much ground going wide.

Prediction: Postposition will be key in this race. From the 10-hole, Garcia figures to come out running on Cupid to keep from getting parked wide. If he clears and gets to the rail before the turn, the rapidly improving gray could be long gone. With that said, there are a couple of others to his inside who figure to make it difficult for them to get to that lead without exerting energy. Under that scenario, Whitmore, who figures to show a little more speed this time, plots to get first run on the leader, this time going by for the win with Suddenbreakingnews nosing out Cupid for 2nd.

Matched Betting at the race track?

The concept of a matched bet has been around for a long time. It was developed by bookmakers who found themselves counting too much on a singular outcome. Essentially the matched betting methodology involves placing equally sized wagers on both sides of the outcome of a sporting event. The trick being you bet on one outcome with a bookmaker and one outcome with the free bet that is usually offered by a bookmaker as a sign up bonus. This method if used correctly can yield a return of approximately 20% as long as the free bet stake is returned along with the winnings.

Matched Betting Accumulator Generator Review

If you are a horse race punter it might be a great time to try out matched betting. And unless you are already a professional at matched betting you might want to look at some of the tools used to help people get the advantage without having to do all the work themselves.

Here we take a look at this new tool called an Accumulator generator. All accumulator generators rely on the same principle however they are not all equal. Remember to do your research before purchasing any online gambling tool.

An accumulator generator has five different strategies that can be used. In all cases, accumulators (parlays) of 4-6 events with staggered starting times, preferably over more than one day if possible, should be used.

1. Back, Lay and Hope (Low Risk) – The process begins by betting the accumulator. After placing the bet, the player would go to their betting exchange account and bet the opposite side of the first event. This process continues until until one of the accumulator selections loses or the accumulator bet wins. If more than one accumulator selection loses or if all selections win, you incur a small loss. If only one loses, you bet a free bet based on common accumulator rules.

2. Bonus Included (No Risk) – Using the same process, you continue laying bets until two of your accumulator selections lose of they all win. Either way, you will generate some type of profit.

3. Locked in Refund (No Risk) – Same process as #2, but the lay accumulator calculator will offer calculations to give you a similar return in either case.

4. Advantage Play (Low Risk) – Using either #1 or #2, you always have the option of skipping one of the lay bets. While it increases the likelihood of losing, the potential winning are larges and the potential losses are still small with the free bet a distinct possibility.

5. Lay All Selections at Once (Low/No Risk) – By letting the lay accumulator calculator work its magic, you can use this method to save time and make all your lay bets at the same time. The possible results would range from a very small loss to a big win or a free bet.

The accumulator generator strategy is another cutting edge wagering tool you could include in your arsenal as you try to consistently try to beat you bookmaker. For more information about what an accumulator generator is and how it can be used you might want to check out this review on Intelligent Odds as it should help explain the process.

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