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Top NCAA College Basketball Mid-Majors and Their Chances of Making the Big Dance If They Fail to Win Their Conference Tournament
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Top NCAA College Basketball Mid-Majors and Their Chances of Making the Big Dance If They Fail to Win Their Conference Tournament

#1 Gonzaga: Yes, they are a mid-major and there is no reason to add anything further. Chances of Getting In: 100%

#2 Murray State 26-2: They have two games left and should at least split the two. They play Belmont (24-5) on Thursday in Murray. If they don’t lose in the first round of the conference tournament they are in. Good News: They are in the Top-25 for the third week in a row. Reason to Worry: Not much of a resume’ to rely on. Chances of Getting In: 85%

#3 St.Mary’s 22-6: They get recognition for playing in the same conference as Gonzaga. The Gaels have played a good schedule and have some good wins. If they get to the conference finals they should be a lock. Good News: Wins over Notre Dame, Oregon, and Utah State plus they have been in the Top-25 a couple of weeks. Reason to Worry: Getting blown out by Gonzaga in the regular season finale and losing in the 1st round of the conference tournament. Chances of Getting In: 75%

#4 Davidson 22-4: The Wildcats should win their next three games which would get them to 25 wins. They close the regular season at Dayton which is iffy. They should get in as an at-large if they get to the conference finals. Good News: They have had success in the tournament before and have a reputation. Reason to worry: Not much on the resume’ in the way of big non-conference wins. Chances of Getting In: 65%

#5 Dayton 19-8: Dayton has four games left and two of them (at Richmond and Davidson at home) are iffy. If they can win all four games, I like their chances. Good News: They have great wins over Kansas, Miami, and Virginia Tech plus a history of being in the tournament. Reason to Worry: Will they win those last two regular season games? Chances of getting in 55%

#6 Virginia Commonwealth 18-7: They have to take care of business down the stretch and winning their final four games would greatly up their chances. They need to make it to the conference tournament finals as well. Good News: Decent wins over Vanderbilt and Syracuse, plus peaking at the right time. Reason to Worry: Will the committee take 3 teams from the Atlantic-10? Chances of Getting In: 45%

#7 South Dakota State 25-4: The Jackrabbits should get in on their mascot alone It is a Top-10 nickname for sure. They are in a decent league and they are undefeated going into the final weekend. Both games they have left are on the road, and the game at Oral Roberts will be tough. Good News: Wins over Arizona State, Georgetown, and St.Mary’s and they might have 27-28 wins. Reason to Worry: The league they play in doesn’t get much respect. Chances of Getting In: 35%

#8: Wyoming 22-4, Boise State 21-6, Colorado State 21-4, and San Diego State 17-6: One of these teams will get the automatic berth into the tournament and probably another one will get in also. At this time, it is impossible to predict who that might be. The question will be if this league gets three bids and which team will that be. Chances of Getting In: 30%

#9 Loyola Chicago 20-6: The Ramblers have to win their last two regular season games and the finale at Northern Iowa will likely be for the regular season championship. If they make it to the conference tournament finals they might have a chance if all things break right. Good News: Great P.R. from previous tournament appearances. Reason to Worry: The Missouri Valley is just average and there aren’t any defining wins. Chances of Getting In: 25%

#10 North Texas 20-4: The Mean Green has to win all four of their remaining regular season games, and make it to the conference tournament finals. They are capable of doing just that. Good News: They would be the regular season champions of a mid-major league that is better than most. Reason to Worry: Best non-conference wins are against Drake and Wichita State. Chances of Getting In 20%

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