Preakness Day Pick 4 Analysis

Pimlico will offer a guaranteed $1,000,000 dollar pick 4 on Saturday, starting with race 9 and ending with the race 12 which is the Preakness.  I’ll give you my ticket for small players and for large players.  Here is my analysis:

Large Ticket

Race 9: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12

Race 10: 1, 2, 5, 9

Race 11: 3, 9, 11

Race 12: 5, 7, 9

Total cost: $162

Analysis: I think race 9 is one you can’t cut any corners in.  I have no handle on this race so I went nine deep.  If you think you’ve got a hot tip in that one, you can cut down your cost a lot.  Race 10 is fairly straight forward, don’t think any of the others that I don’t have listed can win that one.  Race 11 is a tough one, but it should come down to those three.  If you don’t mind playing a little bigger ticket that would be the race I would add a few more horses.  In the Preakness, I didn’t get too fancy.  I played the top two from the Derby, and Went the Day Well because his excuse of having a poor trip in the Derby is legit.

Small Ticket

Race 9: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12

Race 10: 1, 2, 9

Race 11: 9, 11

Race 12: 7

Total cost: $27

Analysis: Like I said before, race 9 is not one you want to take short cuts in so I stayed nine deep.  Race 10 sets up well for the three I left on the ticket.  Race 11 is where I’d be a little nervous.  The race looks wide open so only having two is a risk, but one you have to take if you are going to play a small ticket.  I singled Bodemeister in the last because I really believe he will win.  I think he’ll get loose on the lead, set moderate fractions, and be extremely hard to catch.  Good luck if you are playing this weekend!