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Black-Eyed Susan (Grade 2) Preview

Black-Eyed Susan (Grade 2) Preview

Free Past Performances

Before I begin the preview I’d like to explain a new feature we have for you.  The “Racing Dudes Class Rating” is simply a number rating that shows you how classy each horse is compared to others in the race.  It’s determined by a formula I created.  Each race the horse runs is given a “class rating” on a scale of 1 through 10, with 10 being the best.  Once those rating are determined, I simply add all of their races up and divide that number by the total number of races they have run.  WARNING:  This should not be the only thing you use in your handicapping.  It’s just one number that you might consider looking at while you handicap.  We don’t claim this to be the end all be all of handicapping.  There are several other factors that will come into play.  This is just a quick way you can judge the class of the horses.  If you have any questions about the formula, feel free to ask…ok now on with the preview:

Mamma Kimbo looks to make it 3 for 3 in the Black-Eyed Susan

Likely Winners:

#4 Mamma Kimbo (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 8

To be honest I think this race has drawn a thin field.  Mamma Kimbo looks like the class of this bunch, even though she’s only raced twice.  She has never been challenged, and I think she has enough early speed to take this field wire to wire.  The only question mark is how far does she want to run?  This will be her first time going a mile and one eighth, and her breeding certainly doesn’t suggest she’ll get this distance.  She did run fairly well at a mile and one sixteenth in the Fantasy so even though warning signs are there with the breeding, I’m still betting she gets the distance in a fast enough time to beat this group.

Exotic Plays:

#8 Wildcat’s Smile (NY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 5.43

As you can see her class rating is a bit lower than some others, but I think this horse is really rounding into something nice.  You have to respect how consistent she has been; racing seven times and never finishing outside the top three.  There is no doubt this is a little bit of a class jump, but with the field coming up a little thin I think she has enough talent to once again hit the board in this race.  Expect her to run big, and I think you’ll get her at pretty decent odds.

#7 In Lingerie (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 6

It’s difficult to read just exactly how good this horse is going to be.  She has two six length victories over the synthetic track at Turfway Park, but was a well beaten second in her only start on dirt at Gulfstream.  She’s lightly raced, and this will be her first start since March.  So there is all kinds of mystery going on with her.  She could finish nearly anywhere in this field and I wouldn’t be surprised.  I think you have to put her on your exotic tickets as a “just in case” play.  Hard to tell what she’ll do in this spot.

#2 Disposablepleasure (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 6

This is another horse that has shown solid consistency as she’s hit the board in two out of three Grade 2 races.  She’s probably not good enough to actually win this race, but you have to think she’s a likely candidate for the 3rd or 4th spot, so use her on trifecta or superfecta tickets.

Party Crashers:

#3 Welcome Guest (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 6

This one seems to really be flying under the radar, and I think with a little luck she could jump up and win this thing.  Has only raced three times, but was a decent closing second to Kentucky Oaks runner-up Broadway’s Alibi in her last race.  Now she’ll go around two turns for the first time in this one, which is something her pedigree suggests she can do.  As stated before I’m not too high on this field, so an up and coming horse could be a smart play.  The price will be right on her, so why not take a shot?

#1 Glinda the Good (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 5

One could argue she is lacking in class, but I don’t think you can totally throw this one out.  She looks to be improving with every race this year.  Her last time out was impressive, as she won an ungraded stakes at Oaklawn easily.  The second place finisher in that race has already come back to win an allowance at Churchill Downs, so that makes Glinda the Good look even better.  No doubt she has ran poorly against graded company, but she may be ready for it this time out.  Dangerous to totally ignore.

Throw Outs:

#5 Oaks Lily (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 2.5

Broke her maiden last time out in her eighth try, but the time and speed figure was not real impressive.  Will most likely be one of the longest shots on the board.

#6 Plum (MD) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 4.33

Has won four of six lifetime starts, but this is her first time facing Graded Stakes company.  Nice filly, but this class jump will most likely be too much to handle.

#9 Zucchini Flower (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 3.5 

Will be her first start against Graded Stakes company.  Has won an ungraded stakes, but finished fourth in one last time out.  Looks to be in over her head.

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