Penn Mile Preview: Catch a Glimpse Takes on the Boys

The Appalachian Presented by Japan Racing Association Gr III - 28th Running
Keeneland Race Course     Lexington, Kentucky
April 14, 2016    Race #08
Purse $125,000
One Mile-Turf  1:37.27
Gary Barber, Michael James Ambler & Windways Farm, Owners
Mark E. Casse, Trainer
Florent Geroux, Jockey
Ava's Kitten (2nd)
Outsider Art (3rd)
$3.20 $2.40 $2.20
Order of Finish - 8, 5, 2, 1
Please Give Photo Credit To:  Coady Photography
Coady Photography

Likely Winners

#3 Beach Patrol – Trust me it took everything in my power to not pick Catch a Glimpse…which shows you how much I like Beach Patrol in this race.  His race last time out at Churchill Downs was a nasty beat as he ran his eye balls out to finish second by a nose in the Grade 2 American Turf, and the third place horse from that race came back to win at Arlington in a stakes last weekend.  His two races at Santa Anita prior to his stakes run at Churchill certainly signaled he was ready to run big, and right after the stakes effort he was privately sold and transferred to trainer Chad Brown.  That’s an extremely big bonus in my eyes, and Brown has Rosario on to ride which could be a deadly combination.  He’s improving with each race, and this looks to be the right place at the right time for him to pick up a big win.

#4 Catch a Glimpse – It was extremely hard to go against this filly because I absolute LOVE her and have picked her three straight times.  She comes into the race riding a six race winning streak with five of those wins coming in graded stakes races.  I think this is a curious spot to try her against the boys, but I do like that this race is at a mile which should help her get to the wire.  Look for her to run her normal race like always…she’ll make the lead and I think she’ll be in a good spot turning for home…but can she hold off the “improving with every race” Beach Patrol?  I’m just not sure she can, but I will be rooting for her to get the job done.

Exotic Plays

#6 Giant Run – He was not a great as a two year old, but has come on big time this year with two wins and two second place efforts.  All of his races have come at Gulfstream Park this year against horses that have had decent resumes and went on to have some success once he faced them so he’s built up quite a bit of class.  How he runs outside of Gulfstream might be a question mark as his three starts away from their haven’t been all that great.  If he can run his recent type of races there is no doubt he can hit the board here, and with a small improvement he can jump up and win the whole thing.

#7 Unbridled Daddy – Interesting prospect here as he has had moments of looking pretty strong, but also moments of disappointments.  After running well at Saratoga over the summer he looked to be poised for a run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, but didn’t run well in his prep race and was done for the year.  Returned at Gulfstream Park in March with a dominating win going a mile on the turf, but did disappoint last time out in the Woodhaven Stakes at Aqueduct.  Should fit in pretty well with this group and will definitely be in the mix.

Party Crashers

#2 Airoforce – Who knows with him anymore…the “good” Airoforce would be the clear choice in this race, but we’ve seen more of the “bad” Airoforce this year.  Perhaps his second turf race of the year can get him on track, and I do believe the mile distance is his best trip.  However, how can you have any confidence in him after his dismal 2016 efforts?  Just can’t invest anymore in him, especially at what will probably be a short price once again.

Throw Outs

#5 Oscar Nominated – Many said leading up to the Kentucky Derby that if the race were run on synthetics this horse would have had a chance, but I totally disagree.  The bottom line with him is he isn’t all that fast no matter what surface he’s running on.  He’ll surely get some play in this race, but I’m taking a stand against.

#1 Silent Waters – Only horse of the seven who doesn’t look to match up with these at all.  Could show some early speed from the rail, but I think he’ll falter late.

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