Likely Winners:

#2 Contested (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 7.80

There is no doubt that the last two races we’ve seen from Contested have given us the “wow factor.”  She cruised to victory in the Grade 3 Eight Belles at seven furlongs, and cruised again in the Grade 1 Acorn at one mile.  In this one she’ll have to stretch out to a mile and one-sixteenth, but considering the pace scenario I don’t think she’ll have much problem.  With Broadway’s Alibi injured Contested becomes the controlling speed in this race, as well as the fastest three-year old filly in training.  Look for her to take the lead early, and never look back.  She won’t be the favorite, however I wouldn’t be expecting a great price on her.

#1 Believe You Can (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 6.11 

It’s probably a huge mistake to bet against a horse that has run this good in her last two starts, but I just believe that Contested might be something special.  If the race were a little longer I would think Believe You Can would win, but with it only being a mile and one-sixteenth I’m inclined to pick the mild upset here.  You also must factor in that Contested has a decent shot to be loose on the lead in this race.  If that were to happen it will be hard for anyone to take her down.  I love Believe You Can, but I think the odds are stacked against her in this one.

Exotic Plays:

#3 Disposablepleasure (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 5.57

I really don’t view her as a threat to the top two, but an on the board finish is not out of the question by any means.  She looks to be a horse on the improve as she was just over a length away from taking home the Black Eyed Susan.  The bad news is she was beaten by fellow Mother Goose runner Believe You Can by nine lengths in the Fair Grounds Oaks.  It’s hard to imagine she can make up that kind of ground on her, but she’s likely better than the others have I have rated below her.

Party Crashers:

#5 Zo Impressive (KY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 6.50

She has won two of four races in her young career, and her other two races were second place efforts against top class horses in Grace Hall and Contested.  Contested is in the field today, but maybe the extra distance even things up a little bit today.  She’s classy enough to hang with this bunch, and if the price is good enough she might be worth taking a shot with.

Throw Outs:

#4 Wildcat’s Smile (NY) – Racing Dudes Class Rating: 5.13

Wildcat’s Smile is a solid filly, but might be a touch out-classed in this compact group.  She was only beaten three lengths in the Black Eyed Susan, but I think this race is tougher than that one.  Nice horse, just not today.