Kentucky Oaks

Kentucky Oaks: Three Horses to Outrun Odds

Rayya training at Churchill Downs (Credit: Coady Photography)

The Kentucky Oaks wasn’t going to get much attention from me originally. The field features two horses, Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou, that seem to be the class of the group.

Then the post position draw happened.

#HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERWINPLACESHOW
14Monomoy Girl Florent Geroux Brad Cox 7.204.603.60
5Wonder Gadot John Velazquez Mark Casse 14.007.20
10Midnight Bisou Mike Smith Bill Spawr 3.20

Monomoy Girl is going to have to use quite a bit of horse to get to the lead from the far outside post, which should make her vulnerable. Midnight Bisou’s post isn’t the best, either, so let’s find some value in the rest of the field!

2018 Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide

Rayya (12-1)

Kidding! I will NOT put Rayya in this category like everyone else. She was 18 lengths behind Mendelssohn in the Group 2 UAE Derby while running a 78 Beyer. She’ll have to improve big-time in order to stay with this group. I know that she’s a first-time runner from trainer Bob Baffert, and I know that the price is juicy, but I would be shocked if she isn’t bet down to 5-1. She’s just not for me.

Okay, now that THAT is out of the way….

Coach Rocks (12-1):

When handicapping, I often look for vast improvement when there’s a logical reason. It’s often easy to see the reason, like a horse going from turf to dirt or adding blinkers. In Coach Rocks’ case, the change is not as obvious – it’s two turns on the dirt. She stretched out her legs in her last two efforts and showed that she was able to win on the lead and from off the pace. She gets to go around two turns again on Friday and should take another step forward. Additionally, the extra distance should help out, and with the speed in this race, she should be sitting the perfect stalking trip.

Coach Rocks training at Churchill Downs (Credit: Coady Photography)

My Miss Lilly (10-1):

Like Coach Rocks, two turns seems to suit My Miss Lilly just fine. She’s the only horse in the field to have covered 1 1/8 miles this year and won last time out at the distance. This daughter of Tapit is also the most expensive buy filly in the field, selling for $670,000 during Keeneland’s 2016 September sale. While sale price isn’t everything in racing, when a horse sells for that kind of coin, is by Tapit, and puts everything together when stretching out, then you know that there’s a lot of talent that might not be fully tapped just yet. She also broke her maiden in the slop, so if it rains, it won’t hurt her chances.

My Miss Lilly before the G2 Gazelle (Credit: Michael Spector)

Eskimo Kisses (15-1):

She was beaten 5 lengths in the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland last time out, but that was a smaller field with no pace pressure on a speed-favoring track. In the Kentucky Oaks, there should be a contested pace up front that will play right into Eskimo Kisses’ hands. This Gainsway homebred is re-adding Lasix, which indicates that she had an issue during the Ashland. Three back over the Oaklawn Park slop was monstrous so if it does rain, she is another one to keep an eye on.

Eskimo Kisses (second) chases eventual winner Monomoy Girl in the G1 Ashland (Credit: Keeneland Photo)

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. James

    May 3, 2018 at 8:01 am

    Post draw does not bother a closer like it does the E-E/P type, rain here in Lexington tomorrow , after some pretty warm weather, track will pull moisture into it and hold like a sponge. Oaks /Derby double bet just got to looking way better for me , also the Oaks/Woodford Turf/Derby pick 3!
    Welcome to Kentucky Racing Dudes, have fun this weekend and enjoy the best time of year for horse racing.

  2. Mike Somich

    May 3, 2018 at 10:31 am

    I agree James, post hurts Momomoy Girl more then Bisou. Now that it sounds like Rayya is sending too it should set up well for horses from off the pace.

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