Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) Preview

Likely Winners:

#6 American Pharoah (KY) – There is not much more that needs to be said about this horse.  He’s been my number one Kentucky Derby prospect from day one, and he will be my bet the day of that race unless there is an injury.  I believe he’s just on a level that nobody can match, so obviously he’s my pick in this race.  I do believe he’ll have a tougher challenge on Saturday than he did in the Rebel, but in the end he will prevail.

#7 Far Right (KY) – What a story this would be if Far Right can pull the upset on Saturday!  Ron Moquett has waited his whole life for a Kentucky Derby prospect, and if he could pull off the upset with Far Right he would become a local legend.  The Hot Springs native has been a favorite of the locals (and always will be) but this would put him on a whole new level.  Far Right will need some major pace help to run down Pharoah, and I don’t think there is enough pace in here for him to do it.  He’ll be coming with one big run like always, but this is one tough task today!

Exotic Plays:

#2 Mr. Z (KY) – I’ll be honest I’m getting sick of this horse!  I still (stupidly) believe he’s got a big win in him somewhere down the road, but as of now he looks to be going the wrong way.  However, I’ve seen Lukas pull off crazier miracles and it’s never wise to doubt this guy.  We know his best race will make him competitive here, but how can you be confident he’ll put up that kind of effort?  Will be rooting for him, but not betting him.

#5 Bold Conquest (KY) – There are a few people out there that think he has one big race in him, but I just don’t see it.  I do believe he’ll run his normal race, and this being his third race off the layoff perhaps he’ll make a little improvement.  However, I don’t think it will be enough to take down the whole prize today.  Asmussen may be able to get this one into the Kentucky Derby, but I don’t think he’s a factor.

Party Crashers:

#4 Madefromlucky (KY) – He ran a respectable second last time out in the Rebel to American Pharoah, and really is the only horse I can see improving enough to give the top two a battle in here.  The added distance will probably be ok for him, and he’s lightly raced so the experience he gained last time is valuable.  I still believe this is a two horse race, but if anyone can surprise it’s him.

Throw Outs:

#1 The Truth Or Else (KY) – Haven’t been sold on this one from day, and I’m not going to buy in anytime soon.  Ran a decent race on a track that favored closers in the Southwest, but was zero factor in the Rebel.  Could improve somewhat today with the addition of blinkers, but he’ll have to do a lot of proving to me before I am a believer.

#3 Bridget’s Big Luvy (MD) – Pretty nice win last time out at Laurel which makes this at least worth a shot.  I don’t think he’s close to competing talent wise though.  Possibly a minor award if things fall apart late.

#8 Win the Space (KY) – No idea what he’s doing here.  A maiden going up against American Pharoah and Far Right…NEXT