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Well, last weekend was a roller coaster of horse racing emotion. I just missed a $40k Pick 5 score by a nose and then connected the very next Pick 5 at Saratoga for $5k. One of the toughest parts of this game is not getting too high or too low at any point. Just keep trucking and make adjustments when you find flaws in your style.
My keys went 1 for 3 last weekend, including the close out of the Pick 5 that I scored on, so hopefully we can at least match that win percentage moving forward. The other two horses both made the lead, but folded like lawn chairs in a Cat5 hurricane at the top of the lane. I’ve got a couple that I really like this weekend so let get right into the picks!
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#5 Battle of Memphis
I talked about this horse on The Magic Mike Show with Aaron when we covered the late Pick 4 from Del Mar, but I’ve actually come to like him more in this wide open $40k/NX1. My general belief is that dirt speed out west is better then the east and turf form is better in the east then the west. While Battle of Memphis does not have any New York form, which I specifically look for, the three races he ran at Gulfstream Park early in the year where all during the champions meet when Pletcher, Mott, and Brown all had their best in Florida. The Allowance he ran in on May 2nd at Churchill Downs was ultra tough and included Pillar Mountain, who is the morning line favorite at Saratoga in Race 7 on Friday after running a 92 Beyer and winning in his next start. I’ve also been focused on horses that are shipping into Del Mar for their FIRST start. The “Ship and Win” Bonus the track is offering includes a 40% purse bonus in the horses first start at Del Mar coming from out of start. Two days in, there have been three winners. There is massive incentive to have these shippers ready to fire and that includes Battle of Memphis on Saturday.
Let’s keep leaning on that “Ship and Win” angle on Sunday with Blackout who Peter Miller, the top West Coast turf sprint trainer, shipped to Churchill just to be able to ship back and take advantage of the bonus. The pace in this race should be very hot up front which should set up the perfect trip for Blackout who has done his best running from a stalking position. I’m counting on him to improve here with the ship back to California where he has done his best running for this barn and love the addition of Prat who is 3-1-2-0 when riding this horse. The price should be square as well, the morning line is not out at this time, but I will be keying in multi-race bets and would add a win wager if we get anything north of 5-1.
Most people are not big fans of these salty 2 year old races at Saratoga, but I absolutely love them. I have consistently done well over the years and have been able to find both prices and singles. I am a huge believe in win-early sires, especially with their Freshman and Sophomore class, so knowing who to look for is half the battle in these races. I’ve talked quite a bit about Bayern (Bonus – he’s got a live one in the 7th on Sunday, #10 Sequin) and Tapit’s son Constitution who are currently my top two rookie sires. While, Liam’s Map is also one I have had my eye on and his son #6 Basin looks awfully live in this spot. He ran very well in debut only to fall to the aforementioned Constitution’s son By Your Side who came back to win a Grade 3 here at Saratoga opening weekend. He was favored that day, and I expect him to be favored again, but singling here allows you to spread out in the Late Pick 4’s and Pick 5’s in a race others will use 3 to 4 horses.
Good luck this weekend wherever you are playing and make sure you check out the newest episode of The Magic Mike Show for a deep dive into Saturday’s Late Pick 4 from Del Mar!
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