Welcome to the 2019 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse. You can also visit our Kentucky Derby page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, our Derby Trail Tracker, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more! Here is our fifth set of Kentucky Derby Rankings for the 2019 season:
1. Improbable
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 14th
Race Record: (3) 3-0-0
Earnings: $269,520
Breeding: City Zip – Rare Event
Owner: China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, and WinStar Farm
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) at Los Alamitos, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White/Ryan Stillman
Analysis: It can’t be this easy, right? The owners of Justify are back once again, this time with Improbable, who looks an awful lot like the 2018 Triple Crown winner. He is a perfect 3-for-3 so far while never being challenged. Currently, he is working well at Santa Anita in preparation for his 2019 debut, but where will that be now with Santa Anita up in the air?
2. Game Winner
Derby Points/Rank: 30 – 3rd
Race Record: (4) 4-0-0
Earnings: $1,496,000
Breeding: Candy Ride – Indyan Giving
Owner: Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Paul “Free Beers” Withrow
Analysis: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner is getting set for his 2019 debut with several solid works at Santa Anita. He can become the third Juvenile winner to win the Kentucky Derby and is especially dangerous with Baffert on his side. There is no doubt that if the Derby was today, he would win; however, can he continue to develop and peak at the right time?
3. Mucho Gusto
Derby Points/Rank: 14 – 10th
Race Record: (4) 3-1-0
Earnings: $234,000
Breeding: Mucho Macho Man – Itsagiantcauseway
Owner: Michael Lund Peterson
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman
Analysis: This is both the third-best Baffert horse and the third-ranked horse on our Top 20 list, and that shows Baffert’s strength and depth. Mucho Gusto has an advantage over the top two horses in his own barn, though, as he made his 2019 debut a winning one in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). It looks like the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park could be his next start.
4. War of Will
Derby Points/Rank: 60 – 1st
Race Record: (7) 3-1-1
Earnings: $491,569
Breeding: War Front – Visions of Clarity
Owner: Gary Barber
Trainer: Mark Casse
Last Race: Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White/Ryan Stillman
Analysis: So far, he is 3-for-3 on the dirt while never even being challenged. His LeComte Stakes (G3) win was very impressive. Now, with another victory in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), he has put himself in a great position moving forward. He is the first horse to basically lock in a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
5. Instagrand
Derby Points/Rank: 0 – NR
Race Record: (2) 2-0-0
Earnings: $144,000
Breeding: Into Mischief – Assets of War
Owner: OXO Equine LLC
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Last Race: Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Mike “Saratoga Slim” Spector
Analysis: Instagrand is all the rage; however, I’m suggesting we tap on the breaks just a bit. I’m in love with his talent, but we are talking about a horse that has never been around two runs or raced since August of last year. His first race as a 3-year-old is going to be ultra-important, which comes this Saturday in the Gotham Stakes (G3).
6. Code of Honor
Derby Points/Rank: 54 – 2nd
Race Record: (4) 2-1-0
Earnings: $384,820
Breeding: Noble Mission – Reunited
Owner: W.S. Farish
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Last Race: Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Patrick “Mad Dog” Meagher
Analysis: A big bounce back win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) has this horse locked into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. There is no doubt he took advantage of a hot pace in that race; however, at least he showed the talent needed to win at the higher levels. He will play a factor in the Florida Derby (G1) and perhaps on the first Saturday in May as well.
7. Bourbon War
Derby Points/Rank: 21 – 4th
Race Record: (4) 2-1-0
Earnings: $155,100
Breeding: Tapit – My Conquestadory
Owner: Bourbon Lane and Stable and Lake Star Stable
Trainer: Mark Hennig
Last Race: Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park, Finished 2nd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “Wish Dan” Waite
Analysis: He closed like a freight train to finish a fast closing second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). That’s the type of performance that will catch a lot of eyes, while also seemingly meaning he will enjoy the distances getting longer. He proved he belongs from a class standpoint.
8. Gunmetal Gray
Derby Points/Rank: 18 – 8th
Race Record: (6) 2-2-0
Earnings: $247,200
Breeding: Exchange Rate – Classofsixtythree
Owner: Hollendorfer LLC, Pearl Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Last Race: Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita, Finished 2nd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman
Analysis: We see this type of horse every single season on the Kentucky Derby Trail. He will always show up with an honest effort and make a nice run at the end, but he is not talented enough to win a major Kentucky Derby Prep event.
9. Country House
Derby Points/Rank: 20 – 5th
Race Record: (4) 1-2-0
Earnings: $120,175
Breeding: Lookin At Lucky – Quake Lake
Owner: Shields, Jr., Mrs. J. V. and McFadden, Jr., E. J. M.
Trainer: Bill Mott
Last Race: Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds, Finished 2nd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jared Welch
Analysis: This horse proved that he is going to be solid moving forward after his strong closing second in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds. That is a race that he should be able to build on moving forward. Mott holds a very strong hand going into the big races along the trail.
10. Galilean
Derby Points/Rank: 0 – NR
Race Record: (4) 3-1-0
Earnings: $261,000
Breeding: Uncle Mo – Freisa
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Barker, Denise and Sandbrook, William
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Last Race: California Cup Derby at Santa Anita, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Brandon “B$” Bauer
Analysis: There is no doubt that his latest win in the California Cup Derby was impressive enough to run him against opening company in his next start. No matter the level of competition, this horse should fit in pretty well, as he has proven to be a runner. It will be interesting to see where they try this colt next, as Hollendorfer stated that he could go out of town for his next race.
11. Harvey Wallbanger
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 15th
Race Record: (5) 2-3-0
Earnings: $299,520
Breeding: Congrats – Adorabell
Owner: Harold Lerner LLC, AWC Stables, Nehoc Stables, Akman, Scott K. and Braverman, Paul
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Last Race: Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: The upset Holy Bull Stakes (G2) winner debuted at #10 in the rankings, but was that win a fluke, or is he a for-real prospect? That is up for debate, especially since his speed figure came back fairly slow. However, he is one to keep an eye on because he could improve with his second start of 2019.
12. Vekoma
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 17th
Race Record: (3) 2-0-1
Earnings: $188,850
Breeding: Candy Ride – Mona De Momma
Owner: R. A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables
Trainer: George Weaver
Last Race: Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park, Finished 3rd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: The Fans
Analysis: The Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) showed us enough to think this horse deserves a shot at another prep race for his next start. He may not be a special colt; however, he has every right to improve off of this effort. This is not one to close the book on just yet.
13. Mind Control
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 13th
Race Record: (5) 3-1-0
Earnings: $323,400
Breeding: Stay Thirsty – Feel That Fire
Owner: Red Oak Stable (Brunetti) and Madaket Stables, LLC
Trainer: Gregory D. Sacco
Last Race: Jerome Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Mike “Saratoga Slim” Spector
Analysis: This horse seems to be a lot like Gunmetal Gray. He is likely to show up with a solid effort during all of these prep races; however, he might not be talented enough to win a major event. He runs this weekend in the Gotham Stakes (G3).
14. Tax
Derby Points/Rank: 12 – 11th
Race Record: (4) 2-1-1
Earnings: $186,300
Breeding: Arch – Toll
Owner: R. A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Lynch, Hugh and Corms Racing Stable
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Last Race: Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: The Fans
Analysis: Tax earned a 96 Beyer speed figure for his Withers Stakes (G3) win, which was the highest in a busy weekend of races for 3-year-olds. This continues to be an incredible story because the horse competed in two maiden claiming events before jumping up to the graded stakes level.
15. Anothertwistafate
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 19th
Race Record: (4) 3-0-0
Earnings: $94,545
Breeding: Scat Daddy – Imperfection
Owner: Peter Redekop B. C., Ltd.
Trainer: Blaine D. Wright
Last Race: El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Paul “Free Beers” Withrow
Analysis: This horse is a synthetic monster after three straight amazing wins at Golden Gate, but he has shown enough talent to debut on the rankings this week. He simply ran the other horses off their feet in the El Camino Real Derby. He will try dirt next in the Sunland Derby (G3).
16. Well Defined
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 16th
Race Record: (7) 3-1-1
Earnings: $490,570
Breeding: With Distinction – Fru Fru
Owner: Stonehedge LLC
Trainer: Kathleen O’Connell
Last Race: Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: The Magic Mike Show
Analysis: A big win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) puts this horse on the radar. However, he did get a perfect trip in that race, which won’t be as likely to happen as the races get tougher. For now, he does deserve some respect after that wire to wire win, though. He runs this weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).
17. Hidden Scroll
Derby Points/Rank: 5 – 24th
Race Record: (2) 1-0-0
Earnings: $50,600
Breeding: Hard Spun – Sheba Queen
Owner: Juddmonte Farms, INC.
Trainer: Bill Mott
Last Race: Fountain of Youth Stakes. (G2) at Gulfstream Park, Finished 4th
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White/Ryan Stillman
Analysis: There is no question in my mind that Hidden Scroll was the best horse in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). However, if he does not learn to rate his early speed, he will have a tough time winning major stakes races. On the other hand, if he can learn to sit off horses, he is a prime Kentucky Derby candidate. His next start will be his make or break moment.
18. Win Win Win
Derby Points/Rank: 0 – NR
Race Record: (4) 3-1-0
Earnings:$127,300
Breeding: Hat Trick – Miss Smarty Pants
Owner: Live Oak Plantation
Trainer: Michael J. Trombetta
Last Race: Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “Wise Dan” Waite
Analysis: We are about to see what he’s made of when he starts this weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He showed enough talent in his Pasco Stakes win to give him s0me serious consideration in this race.
19. Sueno
Derby Points/Rank: 8 – 22nd
Race Record: (5) 2-2-1
Earnings:$190,440
Breeding: Atreides – Class Above
Owner: Silverton Hill LLC
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Last Race: Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, Finished 2nd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: The Fans
Analysis: This colt could sneak in and make the Kentucky Derby starting gate by hitting the board along the trail. He will be spotted well in his next two starts and is always going to come with a run at the end.
20. Long Range Toddy
Derby Points/Rank: 16 – 9th
Race Record: (6) 3-1-1
Earnings:$401,125
Breeding: Take Charge Indy – Pleasant Song
Owner: Willis Horton
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Last Race: Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, Finished 3rd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman
Analysis: This colt has proven to be useful so far; however, he has lost both the Smarty Jones and Southwest Stakes (G3). The waters only get deeper from here, which could be dangerous for him.
