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Keeneland presents a wonderful opportunity to return some huge prices! Between the massive fields and the unique track style, bettors need to dig deep in order to find longshots to use, both on top and underneath.
Here are some of the longshots that I’ll be using in multi-race sequences or underneath in single-race bets.
Here’s a great example of a heavy favorite allowing other horses to likely go off at higher odds than they should. #11 Honest Mischief should be your favorite for trainer Chad Brown and may be good enough to key on top. That being said, check out the addition of blinkers on Twelfth Labour for trainer Dallas Stewart, who recently is 2-for-8 first time with the hood and 3-for-10 adding them in general. This is a well-bred colt – by Quality Road out a Lemon Drop Kid daughter – and brought the hammer down at $360k as a yearling. He’s closed well against good competition including Plus Que Parfait, By My Standards, Gun It, and Tapit Wise. Twelfth Labour will be just revving up when the others begin reversing, so I really like him to hit the board. As a bonus, don’t sleep on #4 Kneedeepinsnow adding blinkers.
Here’s a great example of a horse who’s just been waaaay over his head for a long time. He just isn’t a high-end graded stakes-type horse, and I also believe that he’s been going too long. Here, he’s cutting back to 6 furlongs and dropping into N2X company to kick off his 5-year-old season. For the first time in a while, I believe that he’s correctly placed. The return of Tyler Gaffallone in the saddle is also a big plus because his best running, all between 6 1/2 furlongs and 1 mile, came with Tyler aboard. He also broke his maiden going 6 1/2 furlongs over the Keeneland surface, and to top it off, his last three works have been stellar. He’ll be live today and the price should be right.
You’ve got to feel for So Charming, who seems to have consistently run into fields with stakes runners. Here, the 5-year-old daughter of English Channel finally caught a break against a field that just isn’t that tough. Look three starts back, where she was only 3 lengths behind both Si Que Es Buena and Holy Helena. They would be 1/9 in this field. She also seems to be building up to a top effort in this spot, and the distance should not be an issue at all. Additionally, there is enough speed signed up in here for So Charming to storm right by down the lane. I’ll be using her both on top and in the exotics.
This race is WIDE open with a lot of pace signed up for a distance, so I like stalkers, and that leads me to America’s Tale. She ran her best race off the bench to win the Inside Information Stakes (G2) at this distance at 11-1 odds in her 4-year-old debut. I love the confidence that her trainer Bernard Flint shows. He’s 10-for-37 in 2019 and over 20% when his horses have won their last starts, on the dirt, when sprinting, or in graded stakes (where he’s 29%). Additionally, she LOVES this 7-furlong distance (4-2-1-1) and has kept improving race after race on the dirt. I don’t see why a 95+ Beyer isn’t out the realm of possibility here, and she’s going to sit the prefect trip. If she improves, then she can win at a nice number. I’ll use her on top and underneath.
Throw out his Tampa Bay Derby (G2) effort. He was rocked at the start and the race was over. This colt wants to be near the lead, so once he was 13 lengths back, he just didn’t try. This son of Tapit showed some nice improvement off of the layoff to open his 3-year-old campaign at Fair Grounds. He’s got the right to improve off of the Tampa Bay Derby, which makes him very dangerous in this spot. There is not a ton of speed signed on, so he should sit a beautiful trip, closely tracking the pace, and be able to make first run on the far turn. He will need to take a step forward to win here, so I’ll use him sparingly on top, but I really like his chances to hit the board.
Good luck on Blue Grass Day! Follow me on Twitter @Somobomb18 for more information on all of my picks, plays, and opinions, and don’t forget to check out the latest episode of The Magic Mike Show podcast on Monday morning when we recap the crazy weekend of action.
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