Kentucky Derby Top 20 Rankings 4/14/21

Welcome to the 2021 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse.

You can also visit our Kentucky Derby (G1) page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more!

1. Essential Quality

Pros: Trainer Brad Cox; distance pedigree; class of the crop; undefeated

Cons: Paddling running motion seems to be getting worse

Outlook: He’ll go into the Kentucky Derby (G1) as an undefeated champion and the post time favorite. This horse has done nothing wrong in any of his starts.

Kentucky Derby Contenders Pedigree Analysis: Essential Quality

2. Rock Your World

Pros: Highest speed figure among active contenders; defeated a strong field; running style suited for the Derby

Cons: Only 1 start on dirt

Outlook: There is no doubt his Santa Anita Derby (G1) victory was very impressive, and if he can repeat that type of performance, he’ll have a big shot. Can this horse continue to improve/prove his form on the dirt?

Kentucky Derby Contenders Pedigree Analysis: Rock Your World

3. Hot Rod Charlie

Pros: Proven class; Doug O’Neill; win going 1 3/16 miles; high Beyer Speed Figure

Cons: Multiple losses on the resume

Outlook: The son of Oxbow (standing at Calumet Farm) kicked it up a notch with an impressive win in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure that’s now the second-highest among active Derby contenders.

Kentucky Derby Contenders Pedigree Analysis: Hot Rod Charlie

4. Highly Motivated

Pros: Strong effort first time going two-turns; progressing at the right time

Cons: Distance limitations are possible

Outlook: This guy showed a lot in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), nearly pulling off the upset. He should be ready to run his biggest race yet; however, will the distance of the Derby be to his liking? That’s the major question mark.

5. Known Agenda

Pros: Developing at the right time; distance pedigree

Cons: Just a step slower than his main rivals; multiple losses on his resume

Outlook: Todd Pletcher deserves credit for getting the horse to pop at the perfect time. His Florida Derby (G1) win was solid and his pedigree will give him a chance in Kentucky.

Kentucky Derby Contenders Pedigree Analysis: Known Agenda

6. Medina Spirit

Pros: Multiple great 2021 efforts; early speed; Bob Baffert

Cons: Multiple second place efforts by several lengths 

Outlook: He’s shown heart and toughness in his last four starts; however, he seems to be a bit below the top horses in the crop.

7. Midnight Bourbon 

Pros: Consistent; proven class; Derby-friendly running style; “Big Money Mike” Smith will ride

Cons: Multiple losses on resume

Outlook: He leaves Louisiana as the most consistent horse from that circuit. His toughness and running style should help him in Kentucky.

8. Concert Tour

Pros: Trainer Bob Baffert

Cons: Horrific performance in the Arkansas Derby (G1)

Outlook: This horse was on the cusp of becoming the Kentucky Derby favorite before running a bad third in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He’ll have to rebound in a big way.

Kentucky Derby Contenders Pedigree Analysis: Concert Tour

9. Mandaloun

Pros: Brad Cox; enough points (52) to make the Derby gate; running style suited for Derby

Cons: Absolute no-show in the Louisiana Derby (G2)

Outlook: You can’t be confident in him now after his non-effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He was in the perfect position to win; however, he was empty in the stretch.

Kentucky Derby Contenders Pedigree Analysis: Mandaloun

10. Super Stock

Pros: Improving with each race; solid running style

Cons: Low speed figures; several losses on his resume

Outlook: His Arkansas Derby (G1) victory is a feel good story, while he does seem to be improving with each start. Even he can take another step forward he can be a player.

Kentucky Derby Contenders Pedigree Analysis: Super Stock

11. Soup and Sandwich

Pros: Solid running style; rapidly improving with each start

Cons: Horrific name; still lacks experience; speed figures a tad low

Outlook: This guy could be interesting at a big number. He’s trending in the right direction, getting better with each race, and his front-end speed should help him on the first Saturday in May.

Midnight Bourbon, Soup and Sandwich Work at Churchill Downs for Kentucky Derby

12. Caddo River

Pros: Improved in last effort; solid running style

Cons: Low speed figures; inconsistent

Outlook: It was nice to see him rebound with a nice effort in the Arkansas Derby (G1). At worst, he’ll be a pace play if he runs in the Kentucky Derby.

13. Helium

Pros: Undefeated horse; should improve next out

Cons: Very low Beyer Speed Figures; defeated a weak field; training up to the Derby

Outlook: It was impressive that this horse could win the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) off a layoff, plus it was his first start on dirt. This will be his only race before the Kentucky Derby, though, which is not ideal.

Kentucky Derby Contenders Helium, Mandaloun Work at Churchill Downs

14. Like the King

Pros: He has the points to make the gate

Cons: Everything else

Outlook: He fought hard to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), which is admirable. The test at Churchill Downs will be much tougher for him, though.

15. Bourbonic

Pros: Recent win shows he’s improving

Cons: Still very slow compared to the rest of the field.

Outlook: The 72/1 upset Wood Memorial (G2) winner earned his way into the field, but he must take another giant step forward in the Derby to have a shot.

16. Dynamic One

Pros: Solid distance pedigree

Cons: Slow numbers; only one victory on his resume.

Outlook: This Todd Pletcher trainee nearly pulled off an upset in the Wood Memorial (G2), only to be beaten late by his stablemate. Like his stablemate, he’ll need to show improvement to have a shot on the first Saturday in May.

17. Sainthood

Pros: Solid distance pedigree

Cons: Slow numbers; pedigree leans towards turf

Outlook: He’s slow, but he seems to be getting better with each start, so that’s a positive. He might be a good horse down the line; however, the Derby seems like a stretch.

18. Crowded Trade

Pros: Consistent races

Cons: No stakes victories; lack of experience

Outlook:  This horse has progressed nicely this year; however, he’s still a little below the better horse in this crop.

19. Rombauer

Pros: Consistent runner; nice distance pedigree

Cons: Lacks quality dirt win; slow figures

Outlook: If he runs in the race, which is still questionable, he might be able to pick off tired horses down the lane. That is probably his ceiling.

20. Panadol

Pros: None

Cons: Many

Outlook: UAE Derby (G2) shippers never do well in the Kentucky Derby. It should be more of the same with this entry.

World Of Opportunities Await UAE Derby Winner Rebel’s Romance