Welcome to the 2021 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse.
You can also visit our Kentucky Derby (G1) page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more!
1. Essential Quality
Pros: Trainer Brad Cox; distance pedigree; class of the crop; undefeated
Cons: Paddling running motion seems to be getting worse
Outlook: He’ll go into the Kentucky Derby (G1) as an undefeated champion and the post time favorite. This horse has done nothing wrong in any of his starts.
2. Rock Your World
Pros: Highest speed figure among active contenders; defeated a strong field; running style suited for the Derby
Cons: Only 1 start on dirt
Outlook: There is no doubt his Santa Anita Derby (G1) victory was very impressive, and if he can repeat that type of performance, he’ll have a big shot. Can this horse continue to improve/prove his form on the dirt?
3. Hot Rod Charlie
Pros: Proven class; Doug O’Neill; win going 1 3/16 miles; high Beyer Speed Figure
Cons: Multiple losses on the resume
Outlook: The son of Oxbow (standing at Calumet Farm) kicked it up a notch with an impressive win in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure that’s now the second-highest among active Derby contenders.
4. Highly Motivated
Pros: Strong effort first time going two-turns; progressing at the right time
Cons: Distance limitations are possible
Outlook: This guy showed a lot in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), nearly pulling off the upset. He should be ready to run his biggest race yet; however, will the distance of the Derby be to his liking? That’s the major question mark.
5. Known Agenda
Pros: Developing at the right time; distance pedigree
Cons: Just a step slower than his main rivals; multiple losses on his resume
Outlook: Todd Pletcher deserves credit for getting the horse to pop at the perfect time. His Florida Derby (G1) win was solid and his pedigree will give him a chance in Kentucky.
6. Medina Spirit
Pros: Multiple great 2021 efforts; early speed; Bob Baffert
Cons: Multiple second place efforts by several lengths
Outlook: He’s shown heart and toughness in his last four starts; however, he seems to be a bit below the top horses in the crop.
7. Midnight Bourbon
Pros: Consistent; proven class; Derby-friendly running style; “Big Money Mike” Smith will ride
Cons: Multiple losses on resume
Outlook: He leaves Louisiana as the most consistent horse from that circuit. His toughness and running style should help him in Kentucky.
8. Concert Tour
Pros: Trainer Bob Baffert
Cons: Horrific performance in the Arkansas Derby (G1)
Outlook: This horse was on the cusp of becoming the Kentucky Derby favorite before running a bad third in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He’ll have to rebound in a big way.
9. Mandaloun
Pros: Brad Cox; enough points (52) to make the Derby gate; running style suited for Derby
Cons: Absolute no-show in the Louisiana Derby (G2)
Outlook: You can’t be confident in him now after his non-effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He was in the perfect position to win; however, he was empty in the stretch.
10. Super Stock
Pros: Improving with each race; solid running style
Cons: Low speed figures; several losses on his resume
Outlook: His Arkansas Derby (G1) victory is a feel good story, while he does seem to be improving with each start. Even he can take another step forward he can be a player.
11. Soup and Sandwich
Pros: Solid running style; rapidly improving with each start
Cons: Horrific name; still lacks experience; speed figures a tad low
Outlook: This guy could be interesting at a big number. He’s trending in the right direction, getting better with each race, and his front-end speed should help him on the first Saturday in May.
12. Caddo River
Pros: Improved in last effort; solid running style
Cons: Low speed figures; inconsistent
Outlook: It was nice to see him rebound with a nice effort in the Arkansas Derby (G1). At worst, he’ll be a pace play if he runs in the Kentucky Derby.
13. Helium
Pros: Undefeated horse; should improve next out
Cons: Very low Beyer Speed Figures; defeated a weak field; training up to the Derby
Outlook: It was impressive that this horse could win the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) off a layoff, plus it was his first start on dirt. This will be his only race before the Kentucky Derby, though, which is not ideal.
14. Like the King
Pros: He has the points to make the gate
Cons: Everything else
Outlook: He fought hard to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), which is admirable. The test at Churchill Downs will be much tougher for him, though.
15. Bourbonic
Pros: Recent win shows he’s improving
Cons: Still very slow compared to the rest of the field.
Outlook: The 72/1 upset Wood Memorial (G2) winner earned his way into the field, but he must take another giant step forward in the Derby to have a shot.
16. Dynamic One
Pros: Solid distance pedigree
Cons: Slow numbers; only one victory on his resume.
Outlook: This Todd Pletcher trainee nearly pulled off an upset in the Wood Memorial (G2), only to be beaten late by his stablemate. Like his stablemate, he’ll need to show improvement to have a shot on the first Saturday in May.
17. Sainthood
Pros: Solid distance pedigree
Cons: Slow numbers; pedigree leans towards turf
Outlook: He’s slow, but he seems to be getting better with each start, so that’s a positive. He might be a good horse down the line; however, the Derby seems like a stretch.
18. Crowded Trade
Pros: Consistent races
Cons: No stakes victories; lack of experience
Outlook: This horse has progressed nicely this year; however, he’s still a little below the better horse in this crop.
19. Rombauer
Pros: Consistent runner; nice distance pedigree
Cons: Lacks quality dirt win; slow figures
Outlook: If he runs in the race, which is still questionable, he might be able to pick off tired horses down the lane. That is probably his ceiling.
20. Panadol
Pros: None
Cons: Many
Outlook: UAE Derby (G2) shippers never do well in the Kentucky Derby. It should be more of the same with this entry.
