Cotillion Stakes (Grade 1) Preview

It’s hard to do our regular race preview, so instead I’ll just run a run down of the four horses that are entered.  It’s basically a match race between Questing and My Miss Aurelia.  I love them both, but Questing is the pick for me.  She’s shown brilliance in her last two races, and this is a lot to ask of My Miss Aurelia at this time.  Here my projected order of finish:

#2 Questing (GB) – The division’s new number one horse, and perhaps number one filly overall, looks to make it four in a row since switching to the dirt surface.  With only four horses in the race, you have to think that benefits Questing.  She’ll likely be able to set whatever kind of pace she likes in this spot, which is scary considering her last race had fast fractions and she still had plenty left in the tank.  If she shows up with her “A” game is there really any filly or mare out there that can beat her?  I don’t believe so.

#3 My Miss Aurelia (KY) – It’s really hard for me to pick against this horse, but I just don’t know if she’s fully ready to take on a horse like Questing.  My Miss Aurelia is a perfect five for five, including a victory in last years Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies race.  After that race she had a long break, and came back to win an ungraded sprint at Saratoga in August despite stumbling badly at the start and drifting towards the crowd at the end.  I thought the effort was nice, but it was clear she needed that race.  Look for a much sharper effort this time out, but will it be enough to overtake the dominate Questing?  The task is large…

#4 Dixie Strike (ON) – Well what can you say about the other two entires in this race.  They are likely to be totally ignored by the betting public, and for good reason.  I picked Dixie Strike third mostly because of her classy starts in Canada.  The Prince of Wales Stakes win was really solid, and I’m tossing out her last race as I don’t think she ever cared for the surface.  No reason to not take a shot at this spot, but unlikely to beat the top two.

#1 Moment in Dixie (KY) – Much like Dixie Strike, this horse looks over matched by the top two.  Again, why not take a shot though?  With only four horses entered, you are running for good money no matter where you finish.  Moment in Dixie can probably be somewhat competitive with Dixie Strike, so if one of the top two falter you never know what could happen.