Churchill Downs: By the Numbers

Chris Richard

Claiming trainers are near and dear to my heart because I grew up around that game. Richard has grown from someone I knew very little about to someone who I watch for to run. He hasn’t been coming to Churchill but a few years now but in all claiming events he runs in, he is winning at remarkable 48% clip with a ROI $3.43. He has some Maggi Moss fire power behind which is never a bad thing. Expect more of the same out of the barn coming up.

Tom Amoss

I figure I should follow up with the other part of the entry, Tom Amoss, who is Moss’ main trainer in Kentucky. Amoss plays the claiming game quite well, however has only won 15 of the 100 claiming races he has been in the past two years at Churchill. If you break that down to just the routes, he is 4 for 52 with a ROI of only $0.45. While it’s not all bad with Famous Amoss, he does win 30% of the sprint races he runs in but still sports a ROI of $1.79.

Brad Cox

If I am going to talk claiming trainers, I have to talk Brad Cox. Cox has won with 10 of the 25 horses he has claimed with the first start out of his barn at Churchill.  That’s a 40% win percentage and I have seen Brad do it. He has a method and it starts in the morning and it goes all the way up until he drops the claim slip. If he is dropping slips you should be dropping stacks on his entries.

Kenny McPeek

Kenny wins races, there is no arguing that. However, if his horse won its last start, I would be looking elsewhere. Kenny wins 5% of the time with horses who won last out at Churchill. I would give you the ROI but I don’t like handling change. Kenny is good, he just doesn’t seem to be good twice in a row.

Todd Pletcher

Last but not least, the Toddster. Todd is having another great meet at Keeneland, winning around 35% of his starts but I am not sure that is going to transfer over to Churchill. It’s hard to get a line on Todd at Churchill so I went back 5 whole years. He only wins 15% of his starts in Louisville and he hasn’t kept a full stable there for a few years now. We know Todd will win but he wins where he is supposed to in Kentucky. There are no great angles with Todd. It is unfortunate but true.

That concludes this By the Numbers edition. Look for our Kentucky Derby: By the Numbers coming soon where maybe I can find the angle that allows Pletcher to win another Kentucky Derby.