Zia Park Derby and Oaks Analysis

Zia Park Derby

The Pick: #7 Broadway Empire

The Upsetter: #2 Carve

The Rundown:

#1 For Cash (AB) – Canadian invader from Northlands Park much like Broadway Empire, only this one has not run anywhere other than that track.  It’s definitely time to try him someplace new, and this actually is a great spot to do it.  Maybe a touch outclassed, but with his best effort he could hit the board.

#2 Carve (KY) – Usually shows up with a respectable race.  His third last time out in the Oklahoma Derby to Broadway Empire was solid, and its nice that he rested up while Broadway Empire ran in a tough Breeders Cup race.  If Broadway Empire bounces, this one will be the horse that picks up the pieces.

#3 Clone (KY) – Has made close to 100k while running on the New Mexico circuit, but will get a class test today.  Having a race over the track has its positives, but too much class to overcome in my opinion.

#4 I Stand Alone (MD) – He’s the longest shot on the morning line, and you can see why as he was just able to finish third in an allowance over this track last time out.  He does have a win a stakes win at Zia Park, but it was last year when he may have been in a little better form.  Other longshots have more appeal.

#5 Indycott (KY) – The son of A.P. Indy was a nice allowance winner last time out at Remington Park, but he finds himself in deeper waters today.  Trainer Chris Hartman is usually a bit more realistic when spotting horses, which tells me he does think this horse is going to improve and run well following the win last time out.  Maybe a longshot worth watching…

#6 Show Some Magic (KY) – He’s the “other” realistic option to beat Broadway Empire, but this horses has had plenty of stakes chances that haven’t ended all that well.  I like that he did get a win over this track two races back plus he does run fairly well in New Mexico, but I prefer others at a bigger price.

#7 Broadway Empire (KY) – His “A” game easily will defeat this bunch.  The only question mark is whether he’ll have the dreaded “Breeders Cup bounce.”  That question mark is probably the only thing keeping him from being a single.

#8 Real Heat (CA) – After banging heads with tougher competition in California, you could tell Real Heat enjoyed the class drop last time out as he won an allowance at Zia.  The competition gets tougher today, but maybe he can run third or fourth with a solid effort.

#9 Unbridled Giant (KY) – This one looks to be the most out-classed of all them in my opinion.  Don’t see any way he can compete against this group.

Zia Park Oaks

The Pick: #6 Gold Medal Dancer

The Upsetter: #1 I Am Miss Brown

The Rundown:

#1 I Am Miss Brown (KY) – We’ve seen what this horse is capable of, now it’s just a matter of getting her to be consistent with that effort.  Her race last time out at Remington was strong, and if she can progress from that performance she’ll have a big chance to pull off the upset here.

#2 Key to My Warrior (KY) – Her win last time out really came out of nowhere, but it does give her a much valued win over the track.  However, a repeat effort seems unlikely to me.

#3 Unusual Way (CA) – She’s the morning line favorite for the race, and probably one you should try to beat.  This is a class drop, but her last few races haven’t been much.  Also, dirt may not be her best surface.  You might even try to beat her altogether and leave her out of exotics as well.

#4 Midnight Flute (KY) – Midnight Flute has lost her last six races…and three of those have been against claiming company.  Hard to see her making much impact.

#5 Sister Ginger (KY) – This one would be my top pick if this race was at a mile or less, but I’m a little scared of the mile and one-sixteenth distance with her.  She definitely can win races like this as she’s been successful all year in them, and that race last time out in the Remington Oaks wasn’t too bad.  If she gets the distance, she’s the pick.

#6 Gold Medal Dancer (KY) – The two month freshening has really made a difference for her.  Since finishing 5th in the Iowa Oaks in June, Gold Medal Dancer got a two month break and has returned to win an allowance at Remington, and finished a close second in the Remington Park Oaks last time out.  Thinking it all comes together today and she picks up the victory.

#7 Lady of Luck (KY) – It would be surprising to see her make much noise in here.  Last time out she was second in an allowance over this track, and she’s really never showed enough to take her serious against this group.

#8 Oscar Party (KY) – This one could be a little dangerous!  At times she’s looked awfully well, it’s just a matter of what horse we are going to get this time out.  Her “A” game could win this thing.

#9 Comic Kitty (CA) – She’s put together three decent races in a row at smaller venue’s, but this spot looks too tough for her today.