Tropical Turf Preview: Analyze It Hoping to Make Amends

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL – Back after a disappointing defeat in the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (G1), William Lawrence’s Analyze It is hoping to make amends in Saturday’s $100,000 Tropical Turf Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park.

The Tropical Turf is a 1-mile turf route restricted open to all horses ages 4 and up. This year’s edition is the penultimate event on an 11-race card and has a local post time of 4:49 PM.

Here’s a look at the full field for the Tropical Turf:

1. Admission Office 7/2 – After knocking on the door for over a year, he finally broke through with his first graded stakes score in the Louisville (G3), a 1 1/2-mile test at Churchill Downs. Unraced since that June event, he’s only run this short twice in his career, so trainer Brian Lynch may be using this as a warmup for a longer turf race later in the meet.

2. Casa Creed 8/1 – He set a pressured lead at the start of the Shadwell Turf Mile and held on until the 1/16 pole before fading to fourth; the early pressurer crossed last. That earned him a shot in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), where he finished 12th, so this is much-needed class relief for a horse still seeking his first win since the August 2019 Hall of Fame Stakes (G2).

3. Ride a Comet 5/1 – He ended his 3-year-old campaign winning the Del Mar Derby (G2), then disappeared for 25 months before returning to defeat optional claiming rivals going 7 furlongs at Woodbine. His next start was even more impressive; he dominated the 6-furlong Kennedy Road Stakes (G2). He’s fired back-to-back 5-furlong works in preparation for this start.

4. Doctor Mounty 10/1 – He won this race in 2019, coming from last to win by 1 length for his second and most recent graded stakes score following the 2018 Baltimore Washington International Turf Cup (G3). He cuts back after finishing fifth, beaten 1 1/2 lengths, in the 1 3/8-mile Red Smith Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct; the winner is heading to the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1).

5. Frostmourne 9/2 – The fleet-footed son of Speightstown returned from an 11-month break to wire optional claiming rivals going 1 mile at Churchill Downs in early November. He’s won 4 of 6 tries at this distance and trainer Eddie Kenneally does well in turf routes (15%). Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez shows confidence hopping aboard for the first time.

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6. Analyze It 2/1 – After finishing third in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), he disappeared for 22 months but returned strongly to win September’s Red Bank Stakes (G3) at Monmouth Park. He was made the 2/1 favorite in the Shadwell Turf Mile but failed to reward bettors’ expectations, finishing eighth, but perhaps he can rebound against this weaker field.

7. Tusk 15/1 – The defending race champion flashed early speed before quitting hard in his first start since then, the Claiming Crown Emerald going 1 1/16 miles over this course 11 months later. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. connects at 20% in second starts after similar layoffs and has unearthed newfound abilities within the 8-year-old after claiming him from Jorge Navarro.

8. Hay Dakota 15/1 – He steps back up to the graded stakes ranks still seeking his first victory at this level since the 2016 Commonwealth (G3) at Churchill Downs.Trainer Mike Maker has saddled him to a disappointing 6-1-1-0 record since claiming him for $62.5k out of his first start since being rescued from the Jason Servis pharmacy center.

9. Flying Scotsman 30/1 – The Calumet Farm homebred makes his first start since finishing a well-beaten seventh in a 1 1/16-mile optional claiming event at Churchill Downs in June. The 5-year-old son of English Channel won the 2018 Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (G3) at Del Mar and missed the 2019 Woodchopper Stakes by a 1/2-length (he was later awarded first-place purse).

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