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On November 5-6, 2021, the 38th annual Breeders’ Cup World Championships return to Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, California. With 14 Championship races and total purses and awards exceeding $31 million, the opportunity to make life-changing scores are there. But where do you start to make your picks?
Here are three trends that might help you for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup:
Essential Quality, Storm the Court, Game Winner, Good Magic, Classic Empire, and Nyquist each won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile AND made the starting gate for the following Kentucky Derby. But oddly enough, only ONE actually won the Kentucky Derby (Nyquist).
How to use: Don’t pick the horse you think will win this race, but rather pick the horse you think has the best chance of making it in the 2022 Kentucky Derby starting gate.
You read that correctly. SIX of the last 11 Breeders’ Cup Longines Classic winners LOST their final preps leading up to the Classic. Authentic continued this trend last year after losing the Preakness Stakes in his previous start. Even American Pharoah and Blame solidified this trend.
And perhaps even crazier is the fact that the race favorite won the Longines Classic just TWICE in the past 11 years. Yep, twice.
How to use: Use this trusty combo: Lost last out + not the favorite (odds of approximately 5/1) = Bingo.
I believe this is one of the crazier stats of the entire Breeders’ Cup. In a kind of race where you have the fastest of fast horses entering, speed actually almost NEVER works here. Just two horses (Reraise in 1998 and Big Drama in 2010) in the past 23 years won the Sprint gate to wire.
The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Del Mar (2017), Imperial Hint attempted but couldn’t get it done. The speedster Shancelot, who by all accounts was one of the faster horses we’ve ever seen, couldn’t hold off Mitole in 2019 at Santa Anita Park, either. It just doesn’t work.
How to use: Speed fades in the Sprint so bet off-the-pace runners. Hey, Jackie’s Warrior and Flightline, you’ve been put on notice.
Want more? Be on the lookout for our upcoming 14 Trends to Know for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup. You can take a look at last year’s here.
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