Free Pick: SMU (7-0) at Houston (6-1) 10/30/21

This is a key game in the American conference with the winner having the inside track to take down Cincinnati. It’s a bigger game for the Cougars because SMU still has a shot at the Bearcats in two weeks at Cincinnati. Houston has won six in a row since an opening game loss at Texas Tech and the Mustangs appear up to the challenge with their prolific offense. Let’s see what Vegas has on the betting angles.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

SMU Total Team Points: 30.5 The Mustangs are averaging 43 points per game and have scored over 31 points or more in every game they have played. Tanner Mordecai, the transfer from Oklahoma, has completed 71% of his passes for 2320 yards and an astounding 29 touchdowns after 7 games. The Ponies are averaging 333 passing yards per game and they run the ball for almost 200 yards per game. On the other hand, the Houston defense has been stingy and they are holding opponents to 279 yards per game. Their front has sacked the opposing quarterback 24 times and they have forced 13 turnovers. However, they haven’t played anyone close to what they are going to see against SMU. I would think the Mustangs will exceed 30.5.

Houston Total Team Points: 31.5 Houston is averaging 38 points per game, but that is somewhat misleading. They have played 5 FBS teams with a combined record of 15-28, so I don’t know how good they really are. The SMU defense is not great but they have only given up more than 32 points twice. I’m not wasting anymore time analyzing this. I’m not betting this one.

OVER/UNDER TEAM TOTALS: 62.5 This is a total that is reasonable to think these two teams can go over. Together, they are averaging 81 points per game and the two defenses are allowing 40 points per game combined. Again, keep in mind, Houston has played a very weak schedule so they are questionable on both sides of the ball. I’m 50/50 on the line for this one.

POINT SPREAD: Houston is a 1-point favorite in the opening lines. If it stays at that, bet the Mustangs all day long.

DUDES WHO BET SPORTS PICK: SMU Over 30.5 Total Team Points

PAPA DUDE BONUS PICK: SMU +1