Free Pick: New Orleans (3-2) at Seattle (2-4) 10/25/21

This isn’t a high quality Monday Night matchup, but it is a pretty poor week of NFL games overall. New Orleans comes in at 3-2 but no one can gauge how they will play. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, are desperate for a win and a loss will put a huge dent in their season. Let’s look at the betting angles.

TEAM TOTAL POINTS:

New Orleans total team point total is 23.5. The Saints have scored more than 24 points in three of their 5 games so far and they are going against a Seattle defense that has been leaking. However, when we dig into the offensive stats of the Saints, we find that they are only averaging 294 yards per game. They are one of the few teams in the league averaging less than 200 yards per game passing. So, can their offense play better than they have shown to this point and will the Seattle defense step it up a notch?

Seattle’s team total points are 20.5. This seems low to me, but we must take into account, that Russell Wilson is still out for Seattle. The Seahawks are averaging 23 points per game and they have played some decent defensive teams. If backup quarterback, Geno Smith, can make some plays, it is reasonable to assume they can score 21 points at home in this game. The downside in that assumption, is the fact that the Saints are only allowing 71 yards per game rushing which translates, to Smith making some things happen in the passing game.

OVER/UNDER TEAM TOTALS: 42.5

The over might be a good angle to bet considering the teams are averaging a combined 48 points per game. Not only that, but the defenses are giving up a combined 43 points per game. Barring turnovers and drive-stopping penalties, neither defense is a shut-down type of unit. The Seahawks have put up over 28 points in games against, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and San Francisco. Last week, in Pittsburgh they scored 20 in the second half after being shut out in the first 30 minutes. This might be an indication that Smith is gaining some confidence at quarterback. New Orleans scored 38 against Green Bay, 28 at New England, and 33 at Washington. I think over 42.5 might be something to consider.

POINT SPREAD: New Orleans is a 5-point favorite on the road. They are 2-1 this season away from New Orleans with wins against New England and Washington. They can definitely win this game. On the other hand, the Seahawks have got to come into this one as a desperate team. If they lose, they will be in a hole so deep, that they might not be able to get out of. It’s Monday Night, they are at home, and they have to win.

Dudes Who Bet Sports Pick: Seattle +5