Free Pick: Michigan State (8-0) at Purdue (5-3) 11/6/21

The undefeated Spartans are coming off their biggest win in years over archrival Michigan. This is a dangerous game and feels like a trap. Purdue has already derailed one unbeaten team in Iowa ,and would like nothing more than to take down another one. Let’s see what angle to bet.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Michigan State: 27.5 Total Team Points The Spartans are averaging 35 points per game and are putting up 444 total yards per game. They boast one of the best running backs in the nation, in Kenneth Walker, a transfer from Wake Forest. He has rushed for 1190 yards and 14 touchdowns. Last week, he torched Michigan for 197 yards and five touchdowns. He will be a big key for this game. Michigan State has gone over 28 points in 6 of their eight games, but other than Michigan, the competition has been sketchy and has a combined record of 18-23. The Purdue defense has held opponent to 17 points per game and 314 total yards an outing. Only Wisconsin, has scored over 28 points against them. I would bet Michigan State to score under 27.5 points.

Purdue: 24.5 Total Team Points. The Boilermakers have loads of trouble running the ball and the offensive production falls on the shoulders of quarterback, Aidan O’Connell. They are averaging 307 passing yards per game and Michigan State is giving up 301 yards per game through the air. This looks like a good matchup for Purdue. The problem lies in the fact, that they have only scored more than 24.5 points in three of their eight games and one of those was against a 1-8 UCONN team. However, last week they put up 28 at Nebraska ,in their best offensive showing of the year. If I had to bet this angle, I would take Purdue under 24.5 points.

OVER/UNDER: 54 Total Combined Team Points This is a tricky total. Michigan State and their opponent have surpassed 53.5 ponts in five of the eight games they have played, including 70 last week against Michigan. On the other hand, Purdue and their opponent haven’t combined for the total in any of the eight games played. I would take under 54 total points.

POINT SPREAD: Michigan State is a 3-point favorite. Vegas is expecting this to be a close game and the Spartans could definitely be flat coming into East Lafayette. Coming off a huge game against their big rivals, they are going to have to be extremely focused for a decent bunch of Boilermakers. The question is this: Can Purdue knock off two undefeated teams in one season?

AARON’S PICK: MIchigan State -3

PAPA DUDES PICK: UNDER 54 combined team points