Free Pick: Michigan (8-1) at Penn State (6-3) 11/13/21

The Wolverines head into Happy Valley to take on the Nittany Lions in a key Big-10 matchup for Michigan. They still have a legitimate chance at winning the Big10 title and earning a bid into the playoffs, but a loss here will end their hopes. Penn State is a tough out especially when there is the pressure of a championship on the line. Let’s look at the betting angles.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Michigan: 23.5 Total Team Points Logic tells us that this should be a low scoring game. Penn State’s defense is always good, especially at home and the most points they have allowed in Happy Valley is 20. However, Michigan’s offense is scoring 36 points per game and averaging 451 total yards per game. They have scored over this point 24 points in every game except one. They have a balanced offense and they can beat you running or throwing the ball. Michigan OVER 23.5 total team points.

Penn State: 23.5 Total Team Points: Penn State has struggled at times offensively. They are scoring 27 points per game and quarterback, Sean Clifford, is having a good year. Their problem has been a poor running game and that might be a factor in this game. Michigan is good on defense and is limiting opponents to 16 points per game. I like UNDER 23.5 total team points.

OVER/UNDER: 48.5 Combined Team Points Both defenses are stout and are allowing a combined 33 total points per game. In seven games against quality opponents, Michigan’s combined point totals have only exceeded that total three times. It has only happened once in the seven games against good teams for Penn State. I love the UNDER in this one.

POINT SPREAD: Michigan is a 1-point favorite As, we have discussed many times, this is an easy line to bet. Just take the team that you think is going to win and bet them. I personally think that Michigan is a better team, but playing in Happy Valley is always a stern task for any team.

DUDES WHO BEST SPORTS PICK: Michigan -1