Free Pick: Green Bay (7-1) at Kansas City (4-4) 11/7/21

Aaron Rodgers has COVID and is out for this one in Arrowhead, and that has diminished a lot of excitement for this game. It was going to be (stupidly) referred to as a battle between Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, as if no one but those two are even out there. This significantly reduces the intrigue involved between these two teams. But, Green Bay is Green Bay, and they will probably play well. Let’s look at the lines.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Green Bay: 20.5 Total Team Points The Packers have only scored above 28 points in two games and that was with Rodgers. They don’t have him Sunday. When you look at their offensive production, they are only averaging five more yards than they are giving up, which is weird for a team that is 7-1. They have scored 24 points in each of the last three games. Obviously, the line is inflated because of the leaky Kansas City defense. They have held teams under 28 points in the past three games and they seem to be improving. Turnovers by the offense has hurt the Chiefs’ defense. However, I’m taking Green Bay OVER 20.5 Total Team Points

Kansas City 28.5 Total Team Points The Kansas City offense has really been struggling the past four weeks. They are averaging 18 points per game during that span. So, clearly, they are having trouble putting up points. Turnovers have been a huge issue and defenses are taking the big play out of the Chiefs’ offense. The Packers gave up 38 in the first game of the season, but since then, have held opponents to 18 points per game. I like Kansas City UNDER 28.5 points.

OVER/UNDER 48 Total Combined Team Points Since I took the under for both teams total points, I’ll stay consistent and go UNDER 48 points.

POINT SPREAD KANSAS CITY -7.5 Without Rodgers, the Packers are going to ramp up the rushing game and grind it out, running the clock. They will be starting, 2nd year quarterback Jordan Love, who was their No.1 draft pick in 2020. They obviously like him, but he is inexperienced and they have to stay out of a shootout in this one. As always, the key for the Chiefs is Mahomes. He has been pressing and trying to carry the entire load on his shoulders, which is resulting in mistakes. Will this be the week he turns into his old self? The line is tilted towards the Chiefs because of the Rodgers injury.

PAPA DUDES PICK: Green Bay +7.5

AARON’S PICK: Green Bay OVER 20.5 Total Team Points