Free NFL Picks: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP: 2:00 Sunday 1/30/22

The underrated Cincinnati Bengals come rolling in to Kansas City to try and take down the Champs at Arrowhead. Both teams are coming off of unbelievably, exciting last-minute wins in the divisional playoffs. The Chiefs are rightfully favored to head to their third straight Super Bowl. It is going to take a superlative effort from Cincinnati to get the job done. Let’s analyze the position groups and see if there is anything to bet.

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WHO HAS THE EDGE:

Quarterback:
Cincinnati: Joe Burrow 71% Completion Rate, 5,203 yards, 36 Touchdowns, 15 Interceptions
Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes 67% Completion Rate, 5,621 yards, 45 Touchdowns, 14 Interceptions
ADVANTAGE: KANSAS CITY Burrow is great but he ain’t Mahomes

Running Back:
Cincinnati: Joe Mixon 1,302 yards, 4yds. per carry, 14 Touchdowns
Kansas City: Jerick McKinnon 147 yards, 4.3yds. per carry, 0 Touchdowns
ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI Mixon is definitely the best running back, but remember Mahomes really helps the running game for KC.

Receivers:
Cincinnati: JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and C.J. Uzomah (239 catches for 3,455 yards and 25 touchdowns).
Kansas City: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Mecole Hardman (296 catches for 3,537 yards and 24 touchdowns).
ADVANTAGE: KANSAS CITY The Chiefs have the advantage because of the explosiveness of their receivers, but it is close.

Offensive Line:
Cincinnati: 99 yards rushing per game, allowed 66 sacks
Kansas City: 120 yards rushing per game, allowed 33 sacks
ADVANTAGE: KANSAS CITY The Bengals gave up 9 sacks last week at Tennessee

Defense:
Cincinnati: Allowed 21 points and 352 total yards per game. Had 46 sacks and 17 interceptions. Held opponents under 20 points eight times.
Kansas City: Allowed 23 points and 329 total yards per game. Had 35 sacks and 15 interceptions. Held opponents under 20 points eight times.
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE TO CINCINNATI Does a better defense mean anything when Mahomes is playing for the other team?

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Kansas City 31.5 Total Team Points The Chiefs are averaging clicking offensively and their weapons are playing at a very high level. No defense has the speed necessary to keep up with their explosiveness on any play at any time. The Bengals have only one chance and that is to somehow get to Mahomes. Good luck with that. However that is a lot of points to score in a Conference Championship game. I’m taking Kansas City UNDER 31.5 Total Team Points

Cincinnati 23.5 Total Team Points The Bengals are led by 2nd year quarterback, Joe Burrow who has thrown for 5,203 yards and 37 touchdowns. He has emerged as a superstar and is a big reason why this team is so dangerous. They have the underrated Joe Mixon at running back and Ja’Marr Chase is a developing star at wide receiver. The question we all have, is how will they react to playing in this kind of pressure environment? And can they protect Burrow better than they did last week in Tennessee? I like Cincinnati UNDER 23.5 points.

OVER/UNDER 54.5 Total Combined Team Points Too many points for me. I’m going UNDER.

POINT SPREAD: Kansas City is a 7-point favorite The Chiefs are and should be a solid favorite. But, the Bengals can’t be overlooked. They are a young and upcoming team and they have enough weapons to keep this game close. Can they score enough points to beat the Champs in this environment? Buffalo scored 36 and that wasn’t enough as the Chiefs found a way to win against a Bills’ defense that is a lot better than Cincinnati will trot out there.