Ricky’s Rockets ?: Belmont Park Picks for July 4, 2020

I have waited for this day ever since Tiz the Law won the Belmont Stakes (G1). There are five stakes races on the card, highlighted by the Runhappy Met Mile (G1).

The early Pick 5 is wide open, aside from a major single in the middle of the sequence.

Best of luck!

Race 1: $25k Maiden Claiming for New York-bred fillies and mares 3-year-olds and upward going 6 furlongs on the dirt

#1 Remoane returns to the dirt after a porous turf effort. She gets Lasix for the first time and should fare much better in her second start off the bench. #4 Shayna Bay did not do much running in her debut on June 4, but that was also on turf. She should enjoy the dirt like her sire, Girolamo, who won the 2010 Vosburgh Stakes (G1) over this same course and distance. #8 Charlotte Webley drastically improved last time out when she dropped to the maiden claiming ranks, finishing second over this course and distance. If she can repeat her last performance, then she should beat this field with ease.

Race 2: $62.5k Optional Claiming for 3-year-olds and upward going 1 1/16 miles (8 1/2 furlongs) on the outer turf

It’s rare to see a Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz, Jr., runner on the turf at 5/1 on the morning-line, so I’ll put #6 Serve the King on top. He makes his first start since late February, and Brown excels with runners off of long layoffs, winning at 26% in the last 365 days. The other runners to use in this group are #1 Ballagh Rocks, #1A Tribhuvan, #3 Memories of Peter, #7 North Dakota and #9 Go Poke the Bear.

Race 3: Victory Ride Stakes (G3) for 3-year-old fillies going 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt

If #1 Frank’s Rockette runs anywhere close to her best, then this is a one-horse race. She’s finished first or second in every career start and has the talent to beat this group with ease.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight for 3-year-olds and upward going 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) on the inner turf

#1 Mr Jaggers is a deep closer who should enjoy the added distance. Joel Rosario has to stay out of trouble, this colt tends to put himself into compromising positions. #3 Red Storm Risen vastly improved while trying turf for the first time in his 2020 debut. Graham Motion’s runners win at 38% in second starts after layoffs of 180+ days. #4 Malibu Edge also took a big step forward in his turf debut, showing good late energy to finish third last time out. I hate runners like #5 Bail Out because his best effort is good enough to beat this group, but he continuously finds reasons to lose. I am using him, but only defensively.

Race 5: $62.5k Optional Claiming for 3-year-olds and upward going 7 furlongs on the dirt

#2 Ready to Escape has the early gate speed to get away from this group early, and though it will take a monster effort for him to win, there is not much other speed in the field. #3 Tiz He the One finished fifth in February’s General George Stakes (G3) at Laurel Park last time out, but losing to a multiple graded stakes winner like Firenze Fire is no shame. If he can repeat that effort off of the layoff, watch out. #6 Amundson appears for Horacio DePaz, who has started the meet well (5-2-1-1 through Friday). He also has class, having won February’s Hollie Hughes Stakes at Aqueduct. The lightly-run #7 Fortin Hill makes his fourth career start and first since suffering his first defeat, a 3-length runner-up effort in April at Gulfstream Park. He has shown that when healthy, he is dangerous.

THE TICKET

50¢ PICK 5 (Races 1-5) 1,4,8 / 1,1A,3,6,7,9 / 1 / 1,3,4,5 / 2,3,6,7 – $120