Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks 2026 Betting Bible
Aaron Halterman
Happy Oaks Day!
Jared Welch
I'm all about the ladies on Oaks Day!
Races & Bet Summaries
1 Maiden Special Weight $20 Win - #1 Phantom Blue $20 Win - #1 Phantom Blue
Aaron Halterman | Win |
1Phantom Blue
|
|---|---|
| Place |
7Episist
|
| Show |
6Soaring High
|
| Next Best |
5Mass
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #1 Phantom Blue
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 1,7/1,6,7
Trifecta - 1,7/1,5,6,7/1,5,6,7
Superfecta - 1,5,6,7 BOX
Daily Double - 1,7 / 3,7
Jared Welch | Win |
1Phantom Blue
|
|---|---|
| Place |
7Episist
|
| Show |
5Mass
|
| Next Best |
6Soaring High
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #1 Phantom Blue
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 1/5,7
Trifecta - 1/5,7/5,6,7
Superfecta - 1/5,7/5,6,7/ALL
Daily Double - 1,7 / 5,6
2 Allowance Optional Claiming SKIP $10 Double - 5 / 9,10
Aaron Halterman | Win |
3Chopsticks
|
|---|---|
| Place |
7Sudden Switch
|
| Show |
9Five a Side
|
| Next Best |
2Decadent
|
- Best Bet
- SKIP
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 3,7,9 BOX
Trifecta - 2,3,7,9 BOX
Superfecta - 2,3,7,9 BOX
Daily Double - 3,7 / 9,10
Jared Welch | Win |
5Quantum Burst
|
|---|---|
| Place |
7Sudden Switch
|
| Show |
6Anna's Promise
|
| Next Best |
2Decadent
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Double - 5 / 9,10
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #5 Quantum Burst
Exacta - 5,7,6 BOX
Trifecta - 2,5,6,7 BOX
Superfecta - 2,5,6,7 BOX
3 Allowance Optional Claiming SKIP $10 Double - 10 / 6
Aaron Halterman | Win |
9Leinani
|
|---|---|
| Place |
10Star Actress
|
| Show |
5Joyful Justice
|
| Next Best |
3Krissys Star
|
- Best Bet
- SKIP
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 5,9,10 BOX
Trifecta - 3,5,9,10 BOX
Superfecta - 3,5,9,10 BOX
Daily Double - 9,10 / 1,6
Jared Welch | Win |
10Star Actress
|
|---|---|
| Place |
9Leinani
|
| Show |
5Joyful Justice
|
| Next Best |
2Measure
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Double - 10 / 6
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #10 Star Actress
Exacta - 10/5,9
Trifecta - 10/5,9/2,5,9
Superfecta - 10/5,9/2,5,9/ALL
4 Maiden Special Weight SKIP $20 Win - #6 Passerine
Aaron Halterman | Win |
6Passerine
|
|---|---|
| Place |
1Hedge Book
|
| Show |
4Couplet
|
| Next Best |
3Battis Grove
|
- Best Bet
- SKIP
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 1,4,6 BOX
Trifecta - 1,3,4,6 BOX
Superfecta - 1,3,4,6 BOX
Daily Double - 1,6 / 10,11
Jared Welch | Win |
6Passerine
|
|---|---|
| Place |
1Hedge Book
|
| Show |
9Lexi V.
|
| Next Best |
3Battis Grove
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #6 Passerine
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 1,6/1,6,9
Trifecta - 1,6/1,6/3,9
Superfecta - 1,6/1,6/3,9/ALL
Daily Double - 1,6 / 6,11
5 Maiden Special Weight $10 Win - #11 Royal Guard $10 Double - 6 / 5
Aaron Halterman | Win |
11Royal Guard
|
|---|---|
| Place |
10Prepped
|
| Show |
8War and Majesty
|
| Next Best |
6Executive
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #11 Royal Guard
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 8,10,11 BOX
Trifecta - 6,8,10,11 BOX
Superfecta - 6,8,10,11 BOX
Daily Double - 10,11 / 5,12
Jared Welch | Win |
6Executive
|
|---|---|
| Place |
10Prepped
|
| Show |
11Royal Guard
|
| Next Best |
5Flick
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Double - 6 / 5
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #6 Executive
Exacta - 6,10/5,11
Trifecta - 6/10,11/5,10,11
Superfecta - 6/10,11/5,10,11/ALL
6 Allowance Optional Claiming SKIP $10 Win - #5 Paige Turner
Aaron Halterman | Win |
12French Blue
|
|---|---|
| Place |
5Paige Turner
|
| Show |
6Carmel Coast
|
| Next Best |
13Blue Flame Six
|
- Best Bet
- SKIP
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 5,6,12 BOX
Trifecta - 5,6,12,13 BOX
Superfecta - 5,6,12,13 BOX
Daily Double - 5,12 / 5,6
Jared Welch | Win |
5Paige Turner
|
|---|---|
| Place |
6Carmel Coast
|
| Show |
12French Blue
|
| Next Best |
4Color Comin' In
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #5 Paige Turner
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 5/6,12
Trifecta - 5/4,6,12/4,6,12
Superfecta - 4,5,6,12 BOX
Daily Double - 5,6 / 5,6
7 Unbridled Sidney Stakes (G2) $20 Win - #6 Shisospicy $10 Double - 5,6 / 8
Aaron Halterman | Win |
6Shisospicy
|
|---|---|
| Place |
5Queen Maxima
|
| Show |
8Moon Spun
|
| Next Best |
7Haulin Ice
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #6 Shisospicy
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 5,6/5,6,8
Trifecta - 5,6/5,6,7,8/5,6,7,8
Superfecta - 5,6,7,8 BOX
Daily Double - 5,6 / 8,9
Jared Welch | Win |
5Queen Maxima
|
|---|---|
| Place |
6Shisospicy
|
| Show |
7Haulin Ice
|
| Next Best |
4Creed's Gold
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Double - 5,6 / 8
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #5 Queen Maxima
Exacta - 5/6,7
Trifecta - 5/6,7/4,6,7
Superfecta - 5/6,7/4,6,7/ALL
8 Eight Belles Stakes (G2) $10 Win - #8 Goodall $20 Win - #8 Goodall
Aaron Halterman | Win |
8Goodall
|
|---|---|
| Place |
9On Time Girl
|
| Show |
6Sipping Pretty
|
| Next Best |
4Paradise
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #8 Goodall
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 6,8,9 BOX
Trifecta - 4,6,8,9 BOX
Superfecta - 4,6,8,9 BOX
Daily Double - 8,9 / 2,7
Jared Welch | Win |
8Goodall
|
|---|---|
| Place |
2French Friction
|
| Show |
9On Time Girl
|
| Next Best |
7Luv Your Neighbor
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #8 Goodall
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 8/2,9
Trifecta - 8/2,9/2,7,9
Superfecta - 8/2,9/2,7,9/ALL
Daily Double - 2,8 / 2,7
9 Alysheba Stakes (G2) $10 Win - #7 Skippylongstocking $5 Pick 3 - 2,7 / 6 / 5,9
Aaron Halterman | Win |
7Skippylongstocking
|
|---|---|
| Place |
2Baeza
|
| Show |
3Grande
|
| Next Best |
4Tappan Street
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #7 Skippylongstocking
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 2,7/2,3,7
Trifecta - 2,7/2,3,4,7/2,3,4,7
Superfecta - 2,3,4,7 BOX
Daily Double - 2,7 / 6,8
Jared Welch | Win |
2Baeza
|
|---|---|
| Place |
7Skippylongstocking
|
| Show |
6Nu What's New
|
| Next Best |
3Grande
|
- Best Bet
- $5 Pick 3 - 2,7 / 6 / 5,9
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #2 Baeza
Exacta - 2,7/2,6,7
Trifecta - 2,7/2,7/3,6
Superfecta - 2,7/2,7/3,6/ALL
10 Modesty Stakes (G3) $50 Win - #6 Gezora $40 Win - #6 Gezora
Aaron Halterman | Win |
6Gezora
|
|---|---|
| Place |
3Whiskey Decision
|
| Show |
2Proctor Street
|
| Next Best |
5Kathynmarissa
|
- Best Bet
- $50 Win - #6 Gezora
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 3,6/2,3,6
Trifecta - 3,6/2,3,5,6/2,3,5,6
Superfecta - 6/2,3,5/2,3,5/2,3,5
Daily Double - 6 / 5,9
Jared Welch | Win |
6Gezora
|
|---|---|
| Place |
3Whiskey Decision
|
| Show |
5Kathynmarissa
|
| Next Best |
2Proctor Street
|
- Best Bet
- $40 Win - #6 Gezora
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 6/3,5
Trifecta - 6/3,5/2,3,5
Superfecta - 6/3,5/2,3,5/ALL
Daily Double - 3,6 / 5,9
11 La Troienne Stakes (G1) $10 Win - #9 Fully Subscribed $5 Double - 5,9 / 3
Aaron Halterman | Win |
9Fully Subscribed
|
|---|---|
| Place |
5Shred the Gnar
|
| Show |
7Chasten
|
| Next Best |
4Miss Justify
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #9 Fully Subscribed
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 5,7,9 BOX
Trifecta - 4,5,7,9 BOX
Superfecta - 4,5,7,9 BOX
Daily Double - 5,9 / 3,5
Jared Welch | Win |
5Shred the Gnar
|
|---|---|
| Place |
9Fully Subscribed
|
| Show |
7Chasten
|
| Next Best |
2Scalable
|
- Best Bet
- $5 Double - 5,9 / 3
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #5 Shred The Gnar
Exacta - 5/7,9
Trifecta - 5/7,9/2,7,9
Superfecta - 5/7,9/2,7,9/ALL
12 Edgewood Stakes (G2) $10 Win - #5 Just Aloof $10 Win - #3 Imaginationthelady
Aaron Halterman | Win |
5Just Aloof
|
|---|---|
| Place |
3Imaginationthelady
|
| Show |
8Lion Lake
|
| Next Best |
1Storm's Wake
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #5 Just Aloof
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 3,5,8 BOX
Trifecta - 1,3,5,8 BOX
Superfecta - 1,3,5,8 BOX
Daily Double - 3,5 / 4,11
Jared Welch | Win |
3Imaginationthelady
|
|---|---|
| Place |
6Tam Tam
|
| Show |
5Just Aloof
|
| Next Best |
13Indigo Woods
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #3 Imaginationthelady
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 3/5,6
Trifecta - 3/5,6/5,6,13
Superfecta - 3/5,6/5,6,13/ALL
Daily Double - 3,6 / 4,9
13 Kentucky Oaks (G1) $3 Oaks/Derby Double - 4,9,10,11 / 6,18 $3 Oaks/Derby Double - 2,9 / 6,9,14,18
Aaron Halterman | Win |
4Counting Stars
|
|---|---|
| Place |
11Percy's Bar
|
| Show |
9Always a Runner
|
| Next Best |
10Prom Queen
|
- Best Bet
- $3 Oaks/Derby Double - 4,9,10,11 / 6,18
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #4 Counting Stars
Exacta - 4,9,11 BOX
Trifecta - 4,9,10,11 BOX
Superfecta - 4,9,10,11 BOX
Jared Welch | Win |
9Always a Runner
|
|---|---|
| Place |
2Zany
|
| Show |
11Percy's Bar
|
| Next Best |
4Counting Stars
|
- Best Bet
- $3 Oaks/Derby Double - 2,9 / 6,9,14,18
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #9 Always a Runner
Exacta - 2,9/2,4,9,11
Trifecta - 2,9/2,4,9,11/2,4,9,10,11
Superfecta - 9/2,4,11/2,4,9,11/ALL
Multi-Race Bets
| Race | Bet Type | Bet Details | Bet Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $.50 Pick 5 | 1,7 / 2,3,7,9 / 3,5,9,10 / 1,4,6 / 10,11 | $96 |
| 2 | $.50 Pick 4 | 2,3,7,9 / 3,5,9,10 / 1,4,6 / 10,11 | $48 |
| 3 | $.50 Pick 5 | 3,5,9,10 / 1,3,4,6 / 8,10,11 / 5,6,12,13 / 6 | $96 |
| 4 | $.50 Pick 4 | 1,3,4,6 / 8,10,11 / 5,6,12,13 / 5,6 | $48 |
| 5 | $.50 Pick 5 | 6,8,10,11 / 5,6,12,13 / 5,6 / 6,8,9 / 2,7 | $96 |
| 6 | $.50 Pick 4 | 5,6,12,13 / 5,6 / 6,8,9 / 2,7 | $24 |
| 7 | $.50 Pick 5 | 5,6,8 / 4,6,8,9 / 2,3,4,7 / 6 / 4,5,7,9 | $96 |
| 9 | $.50 Pick 5 | 2,3,7 / 6 / 4,5,7,9 / 1,3,5,8 / 4,9,10,11 | $96 |
| 10 | $.50 Pick 4 | 6 / 4,5,7,9 / 1,3,5,8 / 4,9,10,11 | $32 |
Consensus Picks
| Race | Aaron Halterman | Jared Welch | Mike "Papa Dude" Halterman | Vinny Blond | Jon White | AI | Best Speed | Best Long Shot | Consensus |
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10 Trends to Know
Kentucky Derby 152
The blueprint to Derby winners—10 trends you can’t afford to ignore.
Trend 1: Early Class Matters
Notes
Only four horses in the last 50 years have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes at 2 or before March 31 of their 3-year-old season: Genuine Risk, Sunny’s Halo, Mine That Bird, and Always Dreaming.
Takeaway
If they didn’t step up early, they’re already behind. This race doesn’t wait for late bloomers—you better have been battle-tested against real competition.
Trend 2: Proven Winners Only
Notes
Since 1973, only six Kentucky Derby winners failed to win a graded stakes race prior to the Derby.
Takeaway
No class, no chance. If they haven’t proven they can win at the graded level, history says they’re not winning this.
2026 Horses That Fit This Negative Trend:
Chief Wallabee, Pavlovian, Right to Party, Danon Bourbon, Chip Honcho, Great White
Trend 3: Be There Turning for Home
Notes
59 of the last 62 Derby winners were 1st or 2nd with a furlong to go in at least one of their final prep races.
Takeaway
You better be in the fight turning for home. Deep closers sound fun… until they’re spinning their wheels passing tired horses for 5th.
Trend 4: No Last-Minute Experiments
Notes
No Kentucky Derby winner in over 50 years has added or removed blinkers in their final prep.
Takeaway
This isn’t the time to experiment. You want a finished product—not a horse whose connections are still guessing. Yeah… we’re looking at you, Chief Wallabee.
Trend 5: No Layoff Legends
Notes
Excluding 2020, no horse has crossed the wire first in the Derby off a layoff of six weeks or longer in nearly 70 years.
Takeaway
Recency matters. Fitness matters. You don’t show up to the biggest race of your life off the couch.
2026 Red Flags: Fulleffort, Emerging Market, Pavlovian, Incredibolt, Golden Tempo, Stark Contrast, Chip Honcho.
Trend 6: Experience at 2 Is (Almost) Mandatory
Notes
Only three horses ever—Apollo, Justify, and Mage—have won the Derby without racing at age 2.
Takeaway
Can it happen? Sure. Is it likely? Not even close. You’re asking a horse to do something almost no one ever has.
2026 trying it anyway: The Puma, Emerging Market, Potente, Chief Wallabee.
Trend 7: You Need More Than Potential
Notes
Horses with just one or two lifetime starts almost never win the Derby. Leonatus (1883) is the lone exception.
Takeaway
You can’t fake experience in this race. If they haven’t been through the fire, they’re probably not suddenly becoming legends. (Cough) Emerging Market (cough).
Trend 8: Fade the Internationals
Notes
In the last 50 years, horses with experience outside the U.S. and Canada are 0-for-50 in the Derby. Exclusively international runners are 0-for-18 since 1992.
Takeaway
Different racing styles, different surfaces, different everything—and it hasn’t translated. Until it does, we’re fading.
2026 internationals: Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean, Six Speed.
Trend 9: Dead Rail
Notes
Post 1 hasn’t produced a winner since 1986. Post 2 hasn’t since 1978.
Takeaway
The inside is a nightmare in a 20-horse cavalry charge. Traffic, pressure, no escape route. Until proven otherwise… these are auto toss territory.
Trend 10: Pedigree Legends
Notes
13 of the last 16 Derby winners were sired by stallions who won a Grade 1 race at 1 1/16 miles or longer.
Takeaway
Distance pedigree isn’t optional—it’s everything. If they’re not bred to get the trip, good luck getting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.
2026 pedigree players: Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade, Fulleffort, The Puma, Emerging Market, Potente, Pavlovian, Right to Party, Incredibolt, Golden Tempo, Iron Honor, Danon Bourbon, Chief Wallabee, Litmus Test, Napoleon Solo.
