Who to Lock:
Race 6 at Aqueduct – #1 Nicole H (KY) is super tough at Aqueduct and faces a field that looks pretty weak on paper. Tough to imagine her going down in this spot.
Race 8 at Aqueduct – The entry of #2 Caixa Eletronica (KY) and #2B Calibrachoa (KY) are two horses that could win this race without being coupled. Since you get them both, there is no question this is one of the better bets of the day. Pletcher and Repole at any New York track usually equals the winners circle. It’s just simple math!
Race 9 at Aqueduct – #7 Alpha (KY) is a horse I’m not totally sold on, but he should take this field to the woodshed. I think he’s thought of as a “wise guy” Kentucky Derby pick at this point, and the hype will probably continue after Saturday. Personally, I’d like to see him step outside New York for a race before I get to crazy about him. That being said, I see no problems for him on Saturday.
Race 5 at Oaklawn – #1 Ring It Up (KY) looks very tough in this one. Last time out he ran a very solid race, losing to Atigun in the final strides of an Allowance race. Atigun is now being pointed towards the 3-year-old stakes series at Oaklawn, and Ring It Up will be headed that way with a win in this one. The goal is the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on March 17th.
Race 3 at Santa Anita – #8 Mr. Commons (KY) couldn’t have looked much better last time out, and I think he’s on his way to a big year. It’s just really hard to see much stopping him from taking his second race in a row.
Who Might Flop:
Race 6 at Gulfstream – #8 Casino Host (KY) has been running in much tougher races than this spot, but I still think he may lack the talent to win here. He’ll be hit hard at the windows, but I think the up and coming #5 Hothersal (ON) has a great shot to take him down. His maiden win last time out was pretty impressive, and he’s bred to go long on the lawn.
Race 8 at Oaklawn – Even though #4 Color Me Blue (IL) won the Fifth Season stakes at Oaklawn last time out, don’t expect him to repeat that performances. Actually, I don’t even think the horse will finish in the top three. Alternation, Twice the Appeal, and It Happened Again provide a very tough field, and Color Me Blue seems a cut below these three.
Race 6 at Santa Anita – #2 Liaison (KY) might make me look very foolish, but I’m going to take that chance. Even though he just keeps on winning I’m still not high on him. I think the field he’s up against is better than what it looks on paper. Still, it’s very hard for me to bet against Baffert at Santa Anita…but he can’t win them all, right?
Race 9 at Santa Anita – #7 Tapizar (KY) is another one that might make me look ridiculous, but I’m going to take a stand against him for two reasons. 1) He is going to be extremely over bet off his performance in the San Fernando Stakes and 2) he might be “iffy” at this distance. I just don’t like taking short priced horses when going a distance they have yet to prove they can go.
Race 11 at Tampa – #10 Reveron (KY) is a horse I have nothing against, but I don’t think he deserves to be favored in an ultra tough Sam F. Davis Stakes. This field is loaded, and out of all the favorites running on Saturday he’s definitely the one most likely to lose.