Racing Dudes Kentucky Derby Rankings 3/25/20: Wells Bayou Makes Top 10

Welcome to the 2020 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse. You can also visit our Kentucky Derby page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more!

Obviously, things have changed, and will continue to change, with the Kentucky Derby now moved to Saturday, September 5th. We’ll still come at you with updates along the way, as well as the latest news on the race. Here’s our latest Top 20 as we head into Florida Derby (G1) week: 

1. Charlatan 

Derby Points/Rank: 0 – NR

Race Record: (2) 2-0-0

Earnings: $67,200

Breeding: Speightstown – Authenticity (Quiet American)

Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich, John Fielding, and Golconda Stables  

Trainer: Bob Baffert  

Last Race: 1st, Allowance at Santa Anita 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Mike “Saratoga Slim” Spector  

Analysis: His hype train continues to roll, thanks to an ultra-impressive allowance victory in his second start where he earned a 106 Beyer speed figure. Simply put, this horse simply looks to be faster than anyone else in the crop. With the Derby pushed back to September, it also gives him plenty of time to build a foundation and mature before the race. It’s fun to think about his future. 

2. Tiz the Law 

Derby Points/Rank: 22 – 14th

Race Record: (4) 3-0-1

Earnings: $498,900

Breeding: Constitution – Tizfiz (Tiznow)

Owner: Sackatoga Stable 

Trainer: Barcaly Tagg

Last Race: 1st, Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike 

Analysis: His ultra-impressive Holy Bull Stakes (G3) win became even better after Ete Indien – a distant second that race – won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). He showed a quick burst of speed when needed in the Holy Bull, a must-have for a horse to win the Derby. He also has room for improvement off of that effort, making him dangerous moving forward this weekend in the Florida Derby (G1). 

3. Nadal

Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 5th

Race Record: (3) 3-0-0

Earnings: $753,000

Breeding: Blame – Ascending Angel (Pulpit)

Owner: George Bolton, Arthur Hoyeau, Barry Lipman, and Mark Mathiesen

Trainer: Bob Baffert 

Last Race: 1st, Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Paul “Free Beers” Withrow 

Analysis: His Rebel Stakes (G2) performance was one of the ages, as he was pressed through fast fractions early, and still held on for the win. Winning a race like the Kentucky Derby will be tough with his style; however, he suddenly has plenty of time to learn to rate his early speed.  This is another Baffert horse who has a big-time future. 

4. Authentic 

Derby Points/Rank: 60 – 3rd

Race Record: (3) 3-0-0

Earnings: $331,200

Breeding: Into Mischief – Flawless (Mr. Greeley)

Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich, John Fielding, and Golconda Stabels 

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Last Race: 1st, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman 

Analysis: He backed up a his solid Sham Stakes (G3) win with another wire to wire victory in the San Felipe Stakes (G2). There is no doubt he is one of the most talented horses in the crop after these victories. The only question mark left with him is the distances getting longer. Can he carry his speed at a mile and 1/4? His pedigree suggests it could be a challenge. 

5. Ete Indien 

Derby Points/Rank: 54 – 4th 

Race Record: (5) 3-1-0

Earnings: $333,156

Breeding: Summer Front – East India (Mizzen Mast)

Owner: Linda Shanahan, Sanford Bacon, Dream With Me Stable Inc., Horse France America, D P Racing LLC (Deron Pearson) & Patrick L. Biancone Racing LLC

Trainer: Patrick Biancone 

Last Race: 1st, Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jared Welch  

Analysis: After a strong runner-up performance in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), he backed up that form in a big way next out, dominating the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). His high cruising speed is going to be dangerous no matter where he runs and his pedigree should be beneficial as the distances get longer. He’s stamped himself as a contender and has an opportunity to get revenge on Tiz the Law this weekend in the Florida Derby (G1).

6. Honor A. P.

Derby Points/Rank: 20 – 17th

Race Record: (3) 1-2-0

Earnings: $122,200

Breeding: Honor Code – Hollywood Story (Wild Rush)

Owner: C R K Stable LLC

Trainer: John Shirreffs 

Last Race: 2nd, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White and Ryan Stillman

Analysis: We finally got to see him run in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), which was a solid second place effort. He has every right to improve off of that race as well, with it being his first in five months. This also looks like a horse that is going to love going the Kentucky Derby distance. Let’s hope he can stay healthy.  

7. Sole Volante  

Derby Points/Rank: 30 – 11th 

Race Record: (5) 3-1-1

Earnings: $266,310

Breeding: Karakontie – Light Blow (Kingmambo)

Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone, and Limelight Stable Corp.

Trainer: Patrick Biancone 

Last Race: 2nd, Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Real Dynasty 

Analysis: He backed up his performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) with solid runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). His running style is always going to leave him with a lot of work to do in the stretch, especially in a race like the Kentucky Derby. You can rely on him to come with a big run in the end, though, which makes him interesting in the underneath positions. 

8. Gouverneur Morris

Derby Points/Rank: 4 – 48th 

Race Record: (3) 2-1-0

Earnings: $161,500

Breeding: Constitution – Addison Run (Unbridled’s Song)

Owner: Team Valor International and WinStar Farm LLC

Trainer: Todd Pletcher 

Last Race: 1st, Allowance Race at Tampa Bay Downs  

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “Wise Dan” Waite

Analysis: This horse has always had a lot of hype, which he backed up with a nice win at Tampa Bay Downs against allowance company. As of now, he’s pointing towards the Florida Derby (G1), which will give us a great gauge of his talent level.

9. Independence Hall

Derby Points/Rank: 14 – 21st 

Race Record: (4) 3-1-0

Earnings: $250,000

Breeding: Constitution – Kalahari Cat (Cape Town)

Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables LLC, Kathleen Verratti, and Robert Verratti

Trainer: Michael Trombetta 

Last Race: 2nd, Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman 

Analysis: His Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) effort was not terrible. He drafted right behind a very fast early pace, then got passed late by Sole Volante. It’s important to note that he was well-clear of third in that race. He’s a solid horse, though perhaps that race raised some distance concerns. He’ll run in the Florida Derby (G1) this weekend.

10. Wells Bayou  

Derby Points/Rank: 100 – 1st 

Race Record: (5) 3-1-0

Earnings: $845,293

Breeding: Lookin At Lucky – Whispering Angel (Hard Spun)

Owner: Clint Gasaway, Lance Gasaway, Madaket Stables LLC, and Wonder Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox 

Last Race: 1st, Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Austin/Evil Steveil  

Analysis: A wire to wire victory in the Louisiana Derby (G2) has earned him a spot (at least we think) into the Kentucky Derby. He has proven to be strong on the front end, with back-to-back solid efforts in prep events. This victory was at 1 3/16 miles as well, so he is not distance-limited. 

11. Maxfield 

Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 26th

Race Record: (2) 2-0-0

Earnings: $354,412

Breeding: Street Sense – Velvety (Bernardini) 

Owner: Godolphin, LLC

Trainer: Brendan Walsh 

Last Race: 1st, Breeders Futurity (G1) at Keeneland 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jared Welch

Analysis: This colt was extremely solid as a 2-year-old, which made people excited about his chances in big races this year. This horse will benefit most from the Kentucky Derby pushback. He was up against it from a timing standpoint, but now he has plenty of time to properly prepare for the race. 

12. King Guillermo  

Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 8th

Race Record: (4) 2-0-1

Earnings: $240,350

Breeding: Uncle Mo – Slow Sand (Dixieland Band)

Owner: Victoria’s Ranch

Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila 

Last Race: 1st, Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE 

Analysis: How about this 49/1 upset winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G2)? Not only did he win, he crushed the field while earning a solid 98 Beyer speed figure. We’ll see where he ends up next now that the Kentucky Derby has been moved to September. 

13. Basin

Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 28th

Race Record: (4) 2-1-1

Earnings: $361,000

Breeding: Liam’s Map – Appenzell (Johannesburg)

Owner: Jackpot Farm

Trainer: Steve Asmussen 

Last Race: 3rd, Rebel Stakes (G1) at Oaklawn Park 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White and Ryan Stillman 

Analysis: His 2020 debut in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was decent, finishing third to Nadal. There is a good chance he can build off of that effort, while he also will benefit from the Kentucky Derby being moved to September, buying him a little more time to develop.   

14. Storm the Court

Derby Points/Rank: 32 – 10th

Race Record: (6) 2-0-2

Earnings: $1,232,951

Breeding: Court Vision – My Tejana Storm (Tejano Run)

Owner: Exline-Border Racing LLC, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson, and Dan Hudock

Trainer: Peter Eurton 

Last Race: 3rd, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White and Ryan Stillman 

Analysis:There is no doubt he was better in the San Felipe Stakes (G2); however, he still was a distant third in the race. He’ll likely to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate, which is good, but him making much of an impact seems like a long shot. 

15 . Enforceable 

Derby Points/Rank: 33 – 9th

Race Record: (9) 2-2-2

Earnings: $367,150

Breeding: Tapit – Justwhistledixie (Dixie Union)

Owner: John Oxley 

Trainer: Mark Casse 

Last Race: 5th, Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike

Analysis: His off the board finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) isn’t to concerning considering his rough trip. However, with his running style, he is always going to have a big chance for those problems. The Kentucky Derby will only maximize those issues. 

16. Max Player 

Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 31st

Race Record: (3) 2-1-0

Earnings: $173,500

Breeding: Honor Code – Fools in Love (Not For Love)

Owner: George Hall 

Trainer: Linda Rice

Last Race: 1st, Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “Wise Dan” Waite 

Analysis: The Withers Stakes (G3) winner is now on the Kentucky Derby scene, even though the race wasn’t all that fast. Still, his pedigree is solid, and he did show a nice closing kick. His next race is up in the air with the Wood Memorial (G2) likely not happening. 

17. Silver Prospector 

Derby Points/Rank: 21 – 15th

Race Record: (9) 3-0-2

Earnings: $719,718

Breeding: Declaration of War – Tap Softly (Tapit)

Owner: Ed Orr and Susie Orr

Trainer: Steve Asmussen  

Last Race: 6th, Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Brandon “B$” Bauer

Analysis: This colt is extremely inconsistent. At his best, he can be a player, but he has shown up with two really dud efforts this year, including the Rebel Stakes (G2) last time out. 

18. Modernist 

Derby Points/Rank: 70 – 2nd 

Race Record: (5) 2-0-2

Earnings: $388,800

Breeding: Uncle Mo – Symbolic Gesture (Bernardini) 

Owner: Pam and Martin Wygood 

Trainer: Bill Mott

Last Race: 3rd, Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike

Analysis: This horse ran pretty well to finish 3rd in the Louisiana Derby (G2), especially since he broke from the far outside 14-post. He may benefit from the extra time for the Kentucky Derby, considering he still seems to be developing. 

19. Mischevious Alex 

Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 6th

Race Record: (7) 4-1-1

Earnings: $344.230

Breeding: Into Mischief – White Pants Night (Speightstown)

Owner: Cash is King LLC and LC Racing   

Trainer: John C. Servis 

Last Race: 1st, Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Austin/Evil Steveil 

Analysis: At one turn, this horse is pretty impressive, but his two-turn form is yet to be seen. It’s highly questionable if he can get the Kentucky Derby distance, which is why we have him ranked this low.  

20. Thousand Words

Derby Points/Rank: 25 – 13th 

Race Record: (4) 3-0-0

Earnings: $235,000

Breeding: Pioneerof the Nile – Pomeroys Pistol (Pomeroy)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Spendthrift Farm LLC

Trainer: Bob Baffert 

Last Race: 4th, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Paul “Free Beers” Withrow 

Analysis: He suffered his first defeat in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), where he finished a well-beaten fourth. It was a total no-show for him, though, so you’d have to think he will show up with a better effort next time out. Still, he has a lot of proving to do after that effort.