Welcome to the 2020 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse. You can also visit our Kentucky Derby page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more!
Obviously, things have changed, and will continue to change, with the Kentucky Derby now moved to Saturday, September 5th. We’ll still come at you with updates along the way, as well as the latest news on the race. Here’s our latest Top 20 as we head into Florida Derby (G1) week:
1. Charlatan
Derby Points/Rank: 0 – NR
Race Record: (2) 2-0-0
Earnings: $67,200
Breeding: Speightstown – Authenticity (Quiet American)
Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich, John Fielding, and Golconda Stables
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: 1st, Allowance at Santa Anita
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Mike “Saratoga Slim” Spector
Analysis: His hype train continues to roll, thanks to an ultra-impressive allowance victory in his second start where he earned a 106 Beyer speed figure. Simply put, this horse simply looks to be faster than anyone else in the crop. With the Derby pushed back to September, it also gives him plenty of time to build a foundation and mature before the race. It’s fun to think about his future.
2. Tiz the Law
Derby Points/Rank: 22 – 14th
Race Record: (4) 3-0-1
Earnings: $498,900
Breeding: Constitution – Tizfiz (Tiznow)
Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Trainer: Barcaly Tagg
Last Race: 1st, Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike
Analysis: His ultra-impressive Holy Bull Stakes (G3) win became even better after Ete Indien – a distant second that race – won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). He showed a quick burst of speed when needed in the Holy Bull, a must-have for a horse to win the Derby. He also has room for improvement off of that effort, making him dangerous moving forward this weekend in the Florida Derby (G1).
3. Nadal
Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 5th
Race Record: (3) 3-0-0
Earnings: $753,000
Breeding: Blame – Ascending Angel (Pulpit)
Owner: George Bolton, Arthur Hoyeau, Barry Lipman, and Mark Mathiesen
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: 1st, Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Paul “Free Beers” Withrow
Analysis: His Rebel Stakes (G2) performance was one of the ages, as he was pressed through fast fractions early, and still held on for the win. Winning a race like the Kentucky Derby will be tough with his style; however, he suddenly has plenty of time to learn to rate his early speed. This is another Baffert horse who has a big-time future.
4. Authentic
Derby Points/Rank: 60 – 3rd
Race Record: (3) 3-0-0
Earnings: $331,200
Breeding: Into Mischief – Flawless (Mr. Greeley)
Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich, John Fielding, and Golconda Stabels
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: 1st, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman
Analysis: He backed up a his solid Sham Stakes (G3) win with another wire to wire victory in the San Felipe Stakes (G2). There is no doubt he is one of the most talented horses in the crop after these victories. The only question mark left with him is the distances getting longer. Can he carry his speed at a mile and 1/4? His pedigree suggests it could be a challenge.
5. Ete Indien
Derby Points/Rank: 54 – 4th
Race Record: (5) 3-1-0
Earnings: $333,156
Breeding: Summer Front – East India (Mizzen Mast)
Owner: Linda Shanahan, Sanford Bacon, Dream With Me Stable Inc., Horse France America, D P Racing LLC (Deron Pearson) & Patrick L. Biancone Racing LLC
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Last Race: 1st, Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jared Welch
Analysis: After a strong runner-up performance in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), he backed up that form in a big way next out, dominating the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). His high cruising speed is going to be dangerous no matter where he runs and his pedigree should be beneficial as the distances get longer. He’s stamped himself as a contender and has an opportunity to get revenge on Tiz the Law this weekend in the Florida Derby (G1).
6. Honor A. P.
Derby Points/Rank: 20 – 17th
Race Record: (3) 1-2-0
Earnings: $122,200
Breeding: Honor Code – Hollywood Story (Wild Rush)
Owner: C R K Stable LLC
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Last Race: 2nd, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White and Ryan Stillman
Analysis: We finally got to see him run in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), which was a solid second place effort. He has every right to improve off of that race as well, with it being his first in five months. This also looks like a horse that is going to love going the Kentucky Derby distance. Let’s hope he can stay healthy.
7. Sole Volante
Derby Points/Rank: 30 – 11th
Race Record: (5) 3-1-1
Earnings: $266,310
Breeding: Karakontie – Light Blow (Kingmambo)
Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone, and Limelight Stable Corp.
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Last Race: 2nd, Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Real Dynasty
Analysis: He backed up his performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) with solid runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). His running style is always going to leave him with a lot of work to do in the stretch, especially in a race like the Kentucky Derby. You can rely on him to come with a big run in the end, though, which makes him interesting in the underneath positions.
8. Gouverneur Morris
Derby Points/Rank: 4 – 48th
Race Record: (3) 2-1-0
Earnings: $161,500
Breeding: Constitution – Addison Run (Unbridled’s Song)
Owner: Team Valor International and WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: 1st, Allowance Race at Tampa Bay Downs
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “Wise Dan” Waite
Analysis: This horse has always had a lot of hype, which he backed up with a nice win at Tampa Bay Downs against allowance company. As of now, he’s pointing towards the Florida Derby (G1), which will give us a great gauge of his talent level.
9. Independence Hall
Derby Points/Rank: 14 – 21st
Race Record: (4) 3-1-0
Earnings: $250,000
Breeding: Constitution – Kalahari Cat (Cape Town)
Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables LLC, Kathleen Verratti, and Robert Verratti
Trainer: Michael Trombetta
Last Race: 2nd, Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman
Analysis: His Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) effort was not terrible. He drafted right behind a very fast early pace, then got passed late by Sole Volante. It’s important to note that he was well-clear of third in that race. He’s a solid horse, though perhaps that race raised some distance concerns. He’ll run in the Florida Derby (G1) this weekend.
10. Wells Bayou
Derby Points/Rank: 100 – 1st
Race Record: (5) 3-1-0
Earnings: $845,293
Breeding: Lookin At Lucky – Whispering Angel (Hard Spun)
Owner: Clint Gasaway, Lance Gasaway, Madaket Stables LLC, and Wonder Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: 1st, Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Austin/Evil Steveil
Analysis: A wire to wire victory in the Louisiana Derby (G2) has earned him a spot (at least we think) into the Kentucky Derby. He has proven to be strong on the front end, with back-to-back solid efforts in prep events. This victory was at 1 3/16 miles as well, so he is not distance-limited.
11. Maxfield
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 26th
Race Record: (2) 2-0-0
Earnings: $354,412
Breeding: Street Sense – Velvety (Bernardini)
Owner: Godolphin, LLC
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Last Race: 1st, Breeders Futurity (G1) at Keeneland
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jared Welch
Analysis: This colt was extremely solid as a 2-year-old, which made people excited about his chances in big races this year. This horse will benefit most from the Kentucky Derby pushback. He was up against it from a timing standpoint, but now he has plenty of time to properly prepare for the race.
12. King Guillermo
Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 8th
Race Record: (4) 2-0-1
Earnings: $240,350
Breeding: Uncle Mo – Slow Sand (Dixieland Band)
Owner: Victoria’s Ranch
Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila
Last Race: 1st, Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: How about this 49/1 upset winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G2)? Not only did he win, he crushed the field while earning a solid 98 Beyer speed figure. We’ll see where he ends up next now that the Kentucky Derby has been moved to September.
13. Basin
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 28th
Race Record: (4) 2-1-1
Earnings: $361,000
Breeding: Liam’s Map – Appenzell (Johannesburg)
Owner: Jackpot Farm
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Last Race: 3rd, Rebel Stakes (G1) at Oaklawn Park
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White and Ryan Stillman
Analysis: His 2020 debut in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was decent, finishing third to Nadal. There is a good chance he can build off of that effort, while he also will benefit from the Kentucky Derby being moved to September, buying him a little more time to develop.
14. Storm the Court
Derby Points/Rank: 32 – 10th
Race Record: (6) 2-0-2
Earnings: $1,232,951
Breeding: Court Vision – My Tejana Storm (Tejano Run)
Owner: Exline-Border Racing LLC, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson, and Dan Hudock
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Last Race: 3rd, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White and Ryan Stillman
Analysis:There is no doubt he was better in the San Felipe Stakes (G2); however, he still was a distant third in the race. He’ll likely to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate, which is good, but him making much of an impact seems like a long shot.
15 . Enforceable
Derby Points/Rank: 33 – 9th
Race Record: (9) 2-2-2
Earnings: $367,150
Breeding: Tapit – Justwhistledixie (Dixie Union)
Owner: John Oxley
Trainer: Mark Casse
Last Race: 5th, Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike
Analysis: His off the board finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) isn’t to concerning considering his rough trip. However, with his running style, he is always going to have a big chance for those problems. The Kentucky Derby will only maximize those issues.
16. Max Player
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 31st
Race Record: (3) 2-1-0
Earnings: $173,500
Breeding: Honor Code – Fools in Love (Not For Love)
Owner: George Hall
Trainer: Linda Rice
Last Race: 1st, Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “Wise Dan” Waite
Analysis: The Withers Stakes (G3) winner is now on the Kentucky Derby scene, even though the race wasn’t all that fast. Still, his pedigree is solid, and he did show a nice closing kick. His next race is up in the air with the Wood Memorial (G2) likely not happening.
17. Silver Prospector
Derby Points/Rank: 21 – 15th
Race Record: (9) 3-0-2
Earnings: $719,718
Breeding: Declaration of War – Tap Softly (Tapit)
Owner: Ed Orr and Susie Orr
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Last Race: 6th, Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Brandon “B$” Bauer
Analysis: This colt is extremely inconsistent. At his best, he can be a player, but he has shown up with two really dud efforts this year, including the Rebel Stakes (G2) last time out.
18. Modernist
Derby Points/Rank: 70 – 2nd
Race Record: (5) 2-0-2
Earnings: $388,800
Breeding: Uncle Mo – Symbolic Gesture (Bernardini)
Owner: Pam and Martin Wygood
Trainer: Bill Mott
Last Race: 3rd, Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike
Analysis: This horse ran pretty well to finish 3rd in the Louisiana Derby (G2), especially since he broke from the far outside 14-post. He may benefit from the extra time for the Kentucky Derby, considering he still seems to be developing.
19. Mischevious Alex
Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 6th
Race Record: (7) 4-1-1
Earnings: $344.230
Breeding: Into Mischief – White Pants Night (Speightstown)
Owner: Cash is King LLC and LC Racing
Trainer: John C. Servis
Last Race: 1st, Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Austin/Evil Steveil
Analysis: At one turn, this horse is pretty impressive, but his two-turn form is yet to be seen. It’s highly questionable if he can get the Kentucky Derby distance, which is why we have him ranked this low.
20. Thousand Words
Derby Points/Rank: 25 – 13th
Race Record: (4) 3-0-0
Earnings: $235,000
Breeding: Pioneerof the Nile – Pomeroys Pistol (Pomeroy)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Spendthrift Farm LLC
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: 4th, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Paul “Free Beers” Withrow
Analysis: He suffered his first defeat in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), where he finished a well-beaten fourth. It was a total no-show for him, though, so you’d have to think he will show up with a better effort next time out. Still, he has a lot of proving to do after that effort.
