Welcome to the 2018 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse. You can also visit our Kentucky Derby page for loads of information including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, our Derby Trail Tracker, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more! Saturday, we’ll get back on track with prep races after a “bye” last weekend, so let’s take a look at the rankings heading into it:
1. Good Magic
Derby Points/Rank: 24 – 2nd
Race Record: (3) 1-2-0
Earnings: $1,216,600
Breeding: Curlin – Glinda the Good
Owner: e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Last Race: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes at Del Mar; Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Curtis “Magic” Kalleward
Analysis: The time has come for Good Magic to make his highly-anticipated 3-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes this weekend at Gulfstream Park. He’s been working out extremely well for this debut, so the expectations are very high. We’ll get to see if he passes this test and if he’ll continue to be #1 in the rankings.
2. McKinzie
Derby Points/Rank: 20 – 5th
Race Record: (3) 3-0-0
Earnings: $270,000
Breeding: Street Sense – Runway Model
Owner: Watson, Pegram, and Weitman
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White/Ryan Stillman
Analysis: He’s still the most hyped of all of Baffert’s 3-year-olds, and that means a lot, as he continues to show up with star horses each week. Solomini did finish ahead of him in their only matchup, the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, so we’ll have to see how that situation progresses. Baffert took the blinkers off for his most recent start, and the horse responded with an ultra-impressive performance. My Boy Jack winning the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes flatters McKinzie after the son of Street Sense easily defeated him in the Sham.
3. Solomini
Derby Points/Rank: 14 – 9th
Race Record: (4) 1-2-1
Earnings: $472,000
Breeding: Curlin – Surf Song
Owner: Zayat Stables
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos, Finished 3rd (via DQ)
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jared Welch
Analysis: This son of Curlin exudes class with runner-up finishes in the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes and the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In his most recent start, he crossed the wire first but was disqualified in a very controversial call. That race has already produced FOUR total next-out winners, which flatters Solomini in a big way.
4. Bolt d’Oro
Derby Points/Rank: 14 – 7th
Race Record: (4) 3-0-1
Earnings: $576,000
Breeding: Medaglia d’Oro – Globe Trot
Owner: Ruis Racing LLC
Trainer: Mick Ruis
Last Race: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes at Del Mar, Finished 3rd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Mike “Saratoga Slim” Spector
Analysis: He had the most talent of this crop as a 2-year-old, but a tough trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile caused him to finish third. However, he is a multiple Grade 1 winner and has won in dominating fashion. A jockey switch to Javier Castellano is a major bonus, too, and he’s set to make his 2018 debut in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 10.
5. Audible
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 17th
Race Record: (4) 3-0-1
Earnings: $287,720
Breeding: Into Mischief – Blue Devil Bel
Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club International, and SF Racing
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: After facing lessor competition at Aqueduct, it was questionable how he would handle the jump up in class, but he passed the test with flying colors, bursting onto the scene with a major score in the Holy Bull. He now has to be considered a serious player and is perhaps Pletcher’s best prospect at the moment.
6. Avery Island
Derby Points/Rank: 14 – 11th
Race Record: (5) 3-1-0
Earnings: $365,332
Breeding: Street Sense – Kinda Spicy
Owner: Godolphin Racing
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Last Race: Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Mike “Saratoga Slim” Spector
Analysis: Avery Island had a tremendous 2018 debut, easily taking home the Withers. The New York route to Kentucky seems logical for him, as all of his big victories have come over the Aqueduct surface. The win was also at a mile and 1/8, which was his second solid effort at that distance.
7. Free Drop Billy
Derby Points/Rank: 14 – 7th
Race Record: (6) 2-3-0
Earnings: $495,220
Breeding: Union Rags – Trensa
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Dale Romans
Last Race: Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, Finished 2nd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: He ran well to finish second in the Holy Bull after a layoff that followed a very disappointing effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His race at the Breeders’ Cup was the only time that he’s ever finished off the board, so he has to be considered a major player. He’ll likely improve in his next start.
8. Catholic Boy
Derby Points/Rank: 14 – 10th
Race Record: (5) 3-1-0
Earnings: $354,000
Breeding: More Than Ready – Song 0f Bernadette
Owner: Robert LaPenta
Trainer: Jonathan Thomas
Last Race: Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “The Fan Man” Waite
Analysis: He made his 2018 debut in the Sam F. Davis, and while he didn’t run poorly, it was disappointing that he couldn’t pass Flameaway in the stretch and had to settle for second. There’s still reason to be optimistic, but he must improve in his next race.
9. Sporting Chance
Derby Points/Rank: 2 – 26th
Race Record: (4) 2-1-1
Earnings: $319,140
Breeding: Tiznow – Wynning Ride
Owner: Robert Baker and William Mack
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Last Race: Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Finished 3rd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jared Welch
Analysis: Many may think that he’s ranked too highly after finishing third in his 2018 debut race, but he should improve off of that effort next time out. His trip in the Southwest was less than ideal, and the sloppy track played strongly to horses on the inside. The race was just what he needed going forward.
10. Bravazo
Derby Points/Rank: 54 – 1st
Race Record: (7) 3-1-1
Earnings: $426,528
Breeding: Awesome Again – Tiz o’ Gold
Owner: Calumet Farm
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Last Race: Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: The Coach is back in the Derby! Bravazo shipped to Fair Grounds for the Risen Star and pulled off a 21-1 upset over a field loaded with Kentucky Derby prospects. The Awesome Again colt has developed greatly as a 3-year-old. He’s now two-for-two in 2018 and will likely return to Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby.
11. Firenze Fire
Derby Points/Rank: 3 – 24th
Race Record: (7) 4-1-0
Earnings: $589,100
Breeding: Poseidon’s Warrior – My Every Wish
Owner: Mr. Amore Stable
Trainer: Jason Servis
Last Race: Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, Finished 2nd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: This solid, consistent horse has been steady in both of his 2018 starts. As a juvenile, he won the $150,000 Jerome Stakes, then had a nice run in the Withers to finish second. He might be best when going one turn, but his 1 1/8-mile Withers performance shows that he is at least serviceable when going longer.
12. Instilled Regard
Derby Points/Rank: 19 – 6th
Race Record: (6) 2-2-1
Earnings: $244,000
Breeding: Arch – Enhancing
Owner: OXO Equine
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Last Race: Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, Finished 4th
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman
Analysis: His fourth-place effort in the Risen Star left a lot to be desired, but it wasn’t enough to remove him from the rankings completely. He seemed a little dull in the race, but he still managed to run well enough to be close to the leaders in the end. Perhaps shipping back and forth to Fair Grounds from California took its toll on him.
13. Snapper Sinclair
Derby Points/Rank: 22 – 4th
Race Record: (6) 2-1-1
Earnings: $352,360
Breeding: City Zip – True Addiction
Owner: Bloom Racing Stable LLC (Jeffery Bloom)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Last Race: Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, Finished 2nd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: This is one tough colt. He fought on to a solid third-place finish in the Grade 3 LeComte Stakes two races back, then nearly won the Risen Star, losing by a nose while battling Bravazo all the way down the stretch. His early speed and staying power will make him tough in any race that he enters.
14. Tiz Mischief
Derby Points/Rank: 6 – 20th
Race Record: (5) 1-2-1
Earnings: $121,600
Breeding: Into Mischief – Indivia
Owner: Frank L. Jones Jr.
Trainer: Dale Romans
Last Race: Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, Finished 3rd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: Although he was a distant third in the Holy Bull, he might improve off of his next start, as Romans horses usually succeed with more and more racing experience. He is a drop-back-and-make-one-run type that can win when the pace gets hot up front.
15. Noble Indy
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 19th
Race Record: (3) 2-0-1
Earnings: $91,600
Breeding: Take Charge Indy – Noble Maz
Owner: WinStar Farm and Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, Finished 3rd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman
Analysis: The Risen Star was a solid first try against stakes company. He ran well to finish third while up against a small track bias and has a right to improve as he goes forward. At this point, all options are on the table as to where he’ll start next.
16. Vino Rosso
Derby Points/Rank: 2 – 32nd
Race Record: (3) 2-1-0
Earnings: $68,000
Breeding: Curlin – Mythical Bride
Owner: Repole Stables and St. Elias Stables
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes, Finished 3rd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “The Fan Man” Waite
Analysis: He ran well enough to catch our attention in the Sam F. Davis and is a horse that should love going longer. He has a chance to really excel when it means the most. Jockey John Velazquez has already committed to ride him in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 10th.
17. Combatant
Derby Points/Rank: 12 – 14th
Race Record: (5) 1-3-0
Earnings: $248,550
Breeding: Scat Daddy – Border Dispute
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Willis Horton Racing LLC
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Last Race: Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Finished 2nd
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman
Analysis: Could this be the Lookin At Lee of 2018? He’s finished second in three straight Kentucky Derby prep races, but he just can’t seem to have things go his way enough to pick up a win. His Southwest effort was another positive start, and he should continue to make an impact along the Kentucky Derby trail.
18. My Boy Jack
Derby Points/Rank: 12 – 13th
Race Record: (8) 2-3-1
Earnings: $425,145
Breeding: Creative Cause – Gold N Shaft
Owner: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables and Monomoy Stables LLC
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Last Race: Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: He got things exactly like he needed them in the Southwest, as the track at Oaklawn was favoring inside speed. Jockey Kent Desormeaux never left the rail, and My Boy Jack simply crushed them in the stretch. If he can repeat that kind of performance on a dry track, then he’ll be dangerous, but he must prove that he can do so first.
19. Flameaway
Derby Points/Rank: 10 – Not TC Nominated
Race Record: (7) 5-0-0
Earnings: $434,834
Breeding: Scat Daddy – Vulcan Rose
Owner: John C. Oxley
Trainer: Mark Casse
Last Race: Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: The Sam F. Davis was his first start on a fast dirt surface, and he seemed to relish the ground, as he won the race while holding off the heavily-favored Catholic Boy. We’ll need to see him prove it again before we totally buy in, but there’s no doubt that he served notice as a horse to watch.
20. Magnum Moon
Derby Points/Rank: 0 – NR
Race Record: (2) 2-0-0
Earnings: $37,800
Breeding: Malibu Moon – Dazzling Song
Owner: Robert and Lawana Low
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Allowance Race at Tampa Bay Downs, Finished 1st
Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE
Analysis: He looks like the Always Dreaming of 2018. Magnum Moon picked up two nice victories in a row, including an allowance race at Tampa Bay where he basically schooled behind horses before winning for fun down the stretch. After passing that test with flying colors, he’s now being pointed towards a Derby prep race. However, he’s also racing against the clock, as he has just two starts, none of which came as a 2-year-old.
