Pavlovian 2026 Kentucky Derby Profile, Odds, Analysis & Past Performances

Pavlovian 2026 Kentucky Derby Profile, Odds, Analysis & Past Performances

Welcome to our 2026 Kentucky Derby Horse Profiles, where we break down every contender expected to enter the gate at Churchill Downs. Each profile covers past performances, running style, pedigree, and key strengths and weaknesses—giving you a complete snapshot of how every horse stacks up on racing’s biggest stage.

Pavlovian enters the Kentucky Derby as a tough, battle-tested colt who continues to trend in the right direction after strong efforts on the prep trail. He proved his grit with a win in the Sunland Park Derby and followed it up with a game runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby, showing he can compete with top company. Although his last two impressive efforts came either on the lead or sitting right near the front, he still profiles best as a tactical stalker—capable of sitting just off the pace before grinding away in the stretch. That versatility could be an asset in a chaotic Derby field, though he lacks a true explosive kick and will need the right setup to outfinish the top tier.

Projected Odds: 35-1
Breeding: (Pavel – Mandy’s Grace, by Bellamy Road)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
Race Style: Tactical Stalker/Speed
Last 3 Beyers: 90-87-71

Pros:

  • Proven toughness in stretch battles
  • Versatile enough to race on or just off the pace
  • Consistent form against quality competition
  • Trending upward at the right time

Cons:

  • Lacks an explosive finishing kick
  • May struggle to separate from top contenders late
  • Needs the right pace setup to maximize impact
  • Recent success came in favorable pace scenarios

Past Performances

Fair Grounds — March 21, 2026 — $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby (G2)
Finish:
2nd

Sunland Park — February 15, 2026 — Sunland Park Derby (Listed)
Finish:
1st

Santa Anita — January 17, 2026 — California Chrome Cal Cup Derby
Finish:
3rd

Los Alamitos — December 14, 2025 — King Glorious Stakes
Finish:
4th

Del Mar — October 31, 2025 — Golden State Juvenile Stakes
Finish:
DNF

Santa Anita — October 4, 2025 — Allowance Optional Claiming
Finish:
2nd

Del Mar — September 5, 2025 — I’m Smokin Stakes
Finish:
7th

Del Mar — August 9, 2025 — Best Pal Stakes (G3)
Finish:
2nd

Santa Anita — June 15, 2025 — Maiden Special Weight
Finish:
1st

Santa Anita — May 25, 2025 — Maiden Special Weight
Finish:
2nd

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2026 Kentucky Derby Horse Profiles

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