Papa Dudes Free Picks for Churchill Downs 6/20/21

Happy Father’s Day to all you Dads out there and I hope you enjoy your day. Today we are going to bet Churchill Downs with a budget of $50 or so and see if we can increase our bankroll. We are going to highlight some races and stay away from some others and see where we end up at the end of the 10-race card on the last Sunday of racing at Churchill for the Spring-Summer meet.

There are are also 2 playoff games on tap in the NBA and one NHL game as well to analyze and try to make some sense of what is going on in these unpredictable games. They have been great so far.

Let’s get started with Churchill.

Race 1: Starter Allowance

My Picks: 3,4,5 The day starts off with a race where I have a horse that I feel good about betting, but, it is anything but a sure thing. Robertino Diodoro sends out #3 Cantrell Hill and he is 5-2 on the morning line. He has six starts this year and has hit the board in five of them albeit only one has been a winner. It is also a concern that in his one start at Churchill he finished a lackluster 6th but he had a bad trip and he is shortening back to 7 furlongs which is more to his liking. We aren’t going to go too heavy on him but like him enough to throw some pesos his way.

The Bet: $10 to Win on #3

Race 2: Claiming

My Picks: 4,8,5 #4 Big Bella Brown trainer by J. Keith Desormeaux looks to have a good shot at winning this one. He has been claimed 4 times already this year which is an indication that a lot of people like him too. He has a win and two seconds in four starts and finished and had a shot in his last race at Churchill in a similar race. Again, we are going easy on him.

The Bet: $5 to win, $5 to Place

Race 3: Maiden

My Picks: 1A,9,8 Strictly a guess on these picks as nine of the twelve entries are racing for the first time. I do have some interest in throwing a little bit on the #9 Conagher since he has raced two times and has finished second both times and the morning line has him at 12-1.

The Bet: $5 to Win on #9

Race 4: Claiming

My Picks: 4,5,6 I don’t like much of anything on this race and could see any horse winning.

No Bet

Race 5: Starter Allowance

My Picks: 4,5,7 In this race, #4 Gold for Kitten has sparked my interest. This filly is two for two and won a $50k claiming race on May 6th over the local track. Morning line odds are 5-1 but will they stay there?

The Bet: $5 to Win on #4

Race 6: Maiden Claiming

My Picks: 2,6,9 I’ll make this brief. I hate these low level maiden races and I have no clue on this one. I think I might have spent 45 seconds on it.

No Bet

Race 7: Maiden

My Picks: 7,8,4 I like #7 Laynlomakendough at 8-1 and #8 Played Hard in this one. I said I like them not love them.

The Bet: $2 Exacta Box on 7,8

Race 8: Allowance

My Picks: 5,14,2 I am looking at #5 Falkirk trained by Ian Wilkes but is he worth a bet in this 12-horse field? Not only that as I have making these picks it isn’t known whether #14 Aloha West will run or not since he is main track only. I’m going to pass.

No Bet

Race 9: Allowance

My Picks: 10,8,4 I normally don’t like these allowance races with horses who have never won two races but there is a horse in here who has shown some potential. Steve Asmussen sends out #10 Happymac and he looks to be the best in this field. He has 5 previous starts and won by 10 lengths breaking his maiden in late April at Oaklawn Park. He then ran at Churchill on May 21st and lost by 3/4 of a length. He is the lone speed and should get out and hopefully wire the field.

The Bet: $25 to Win on #10

Race 10: Maiden

My Picks: 3,11,4 Nothing in this race reaches out and grabs me. Looks like a sucker race. I’ll pass.

No Bet

Papa Dudes Sports Plays of the Day

The NHL has one game today and it is a doozy.

Vegas at Montreal

There is no question that Vegas is the better team but the Canadiens are ahead in the series 2-1 as we head into game 4 in Montreal. So what is going on here? It is very simple. Carey Price has been unbelievable in goal for Montreal and is keeping his team in the game. And, in Game 3 as the final minutes were counting down with Vegas protecting a 2-1 lead, Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury misplayed the puck and simply handed the willing Canadiens the tying goal and they went on to win in overtime. These are the things that make predictions for hockey games so difficult. In the playoffs you have to get solid goaltending in order to win and Montreal is getting it.

So, what do we expect Sunday night in Game 4? I look for Vegas to come out flying and be even more offensive than they have been and I expect Price to be equal to the task in goal. But, despite the huge gaffe by Fluery on Friday, he has been very good too. It should be a great game and I just think Vegas is the better team and will somehow get a couple of pucks past Mr. Price. But I’m rooting for the Canadiens.

My Pick: Vegas

There is a Game 7 on Sunday night in the NBA and a Game 1 matchup in the Western Conference Finals Sunday afternoon.

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix

Ok, the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard have sure made believers out of me. I’ve had them buried several times during these playoffs yet here they are headed into the final round for the first time in their history. They are facing a well-rested Phoenix team that made mincemeat out of Denver and also defeated LeBron James and the LA Lakers. But, sometimes, a team coming off a layoff comes out flat in the first game against an opponent who has been on a roll like LA has been on. And, added to that, Chris Paul the star of the Suns is out because of Covid protocol despite being fully vaccinated. Go figure.

But, the Clippers will be without Leonard again and can they get the same production from everyone again?

My Pick: Phoenix -4.5

Atlanta at Philadelphia

One can’t help but think that the Hawks left this series slip away Friday night in Atlanta. Up 3-2 and coming off an unbelievable comeback victory in Philly in Game 5, they had all the momentum but couldn’t close the deal against the Sixers. Now, Game 7 is back in the City of Brotherly Love and I don’t think the Sixers will be in a loving mood.

However, this series has been a roller coaster and has been totally unpredictable so who knows what the Hell will happen? I’ve said all along that I thought Philadelphia was the better team and I still do so in a Game 7, I’m going with the best team but I wouldn’t bet the spread.

My Pick: Philadelphia (But I Wouldn’t Bet It)

That’s it for another week. Once again, I hope all the Dads out there enjoy their day and I can’t help but think back about 13 years ago watching the U.S. Open golf tournament with my sons as was customary in our household, and Tiger Woods made an incredible putt on the final hole to tie Rocco Mediate and force an 18-hole playoff the next day. Those were the days when he was in his prime and golf was must-see TV. I doubt the TV will be tuned to golf tomorrow and that’s a shame.

Good luck everyone and I’ll see you next week.

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