Papa Dudes Free Picks for Churchill Downs 5/8/21

It’s the 2nd Saturday in May at Churchill and the vibe is just a tad different than the feeling of last Saturday. But, there is some good racing so let’s see if we can hit some winners.

Race 1: Starter Allowance

My Picks: 2,4,1

Race 2: Claiming

My Picks: 1,5,4

Race 3: Maiden

My Picks: 12,10,8

Race 4: Maiden

My Picks: 7,6,4

Race 5: Maiden

My Picks: 5,7,3

Race 6: Maiden

My Picks: 2,4,12

Race 7: Allowance

My Picks: 2,4,5

Race 8: Allowance

My Picks: 13,12,10

Race 9: Allowance

My Picks: 1,10,5

Race 10: Stakes

My Picks: 2,4,8

Race 11: Maiden

My Picks: 2,5,4

Best Bets of the Day

Race 1: I like #2 Flat Lucky trained by Ron Moquett. He is coming off a win at Oaklawn Park and has hit the board in all of his last 5 starts including three winners. He is obviously in good form and the Oaklawn horses have been doing well in the early going. Look for him to stay close to the early pace and come running late.

The Bet: $20 to win on #2

Race 7: Bob Baffert sends out #2 Himiko in a short field of 5 horses. The problem is the odds will probably drop to 2/5 or 3/5. But, picking horses in advance like we do, we don’t have the odds when we are picking the races.

The Bet: $30 to win on #2

Race 9: Another Baffert runner #1 Crystal Ball should win this one. This is a race with a lot of speed in it and this filly has plenty of it and has shown the ability to hang on to leads.

The Bet: $30 to win on #1

Race 8: Let’s play a .50-cent Pick-4 using these 4 races. In Race 8, I like the #13 World Tour trained by Bill Mott. The problem is the horse is an also eligible and might not even be in the race. If he scratches, I wouldn’t play this bet. In the 9th race, the aforementioned #1 Crystal Ball can almost be a single but I’ll throw in #10 Market Rumor to give myself more coverage. In Race 10, Brad Cox sends out #2 Goin Good and all the Cox horses are live right now. The 11th race is scary but we’ll throw out 3 of them to finish the ticket.

The Bet: .50-cent Pick-4: 10,12,13 / 1,10 / 2,4,8 / 4,7,9

Best Sports Plays of the Day

We are getting very close to the end of the NHL regular season, and these final games are extra hard to pick, because it is difficult to judge who is going to give maximum effort, who is resting players for the Stanley Cup run, and who is not going to show up at all. With that in mind let’s look at some games that still have significance to the playoffs.

Nashville over Carolina

The Predators are in a battle for the final playoff spot with Dallas. As of this post, Nashville has a 4 point lead but if the Stars win on Friday it could be down to just 2. Having said that, Nashville needs this one badly. Carolina has clinched a spot in the Central but is in a battle with Tampa Bay for the top spot and home ice advantage. In short, this is a monster game.

My Pick: Nashville

Vegas over St.Louis

There is no doubt that the Blues need this one worse as of this writing. They still haven’t clinched a spot in the West but they are very close. These two teams played on Friday and if the Blues win that game the importance of this game would be greatly diminished. Vegas is fighting with Colorado for the top spot in the Central and has a 4 point lead as of this post but Colorado has a game at hand.

My Pick: Vegas

Colorado over Los Angeles

This matchup is very similar to the Blues-Knights game. The Kings are barely hanging on to their playoff hopes with the Blues having a commanding lead of 8 points as of this post. It could be down to 6 or it could be 10 and the Kings would be eliminated. Meanwhile, Colorado is still trying to nail down the top seed against the Knights.

My Pick: Colorado

Florida over Tampa Bay

These two rivals are locked into a battle for 2nd place in the Central and Tampa can still finish 1st unless they lost on Friday to Dallas. Nevertheless, this is a huge game to settle home ice in the first round for both of these teams. This should be a good one.

My Pick: Florida

To wrap up this Saturday let’s take a stab at a couple of NBA games with huge playoff implications.

Washington at Indiana

These two teams are neck and neck in the Eastern Conference for the last two positions in the playoffs. Currently the Pacers are one-half game ahead of the Wizards and sit in 9th place. A victory here would give them a little cushion. The Pacers are at home but that is not necessarily a good thing as they have a 12-20 record on their home court. Also, Washington is playing well winning 7 out of their last 10 games. Indiana is coming off a great win against Miami a couple of nights ago and the Wizards played a very good Milwaukee team and lost by 1. It is a very even game.

The Bet: Indiana -2.5

Brooklyn at Denver

This is a game involving 2 very good teams that are solidly entrenched in the playoffs. The Nets have lost 4 in a row and Denver has won 8 out of their last 10. The Nuggets are hard to beat at home and they are playing their best ball of the season. Meanwhile, the Nets are losing ground on the 76ers in the race for the top seed in the East. All indications point to a Denver win but I think Brooklyn snaps out of their funk and can beat the spread.

The Bet: Brooklyn +3.5

That covers it for today. Hope we hit some winners and we’ll be back tomorrow. Good luck everyone!