Kentucky Derby Trends 2024 | Post Position Analysis

Post position is important in every race, but the Kentucky Derby trends for gate assignments are magnified.

With up to 20 horses loading into the 2024 Kentucky Derby gate, post position analysis is important and can dramatically affect how you bet.

Watch Magic explain in further detail, then tell us YOUR favorite Kentucky Derby trends in the Comments!

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The table below reflects the performances from each post position (1-23) since the 1st Kentucky Derby was run under the current qualifying points system in 2013.

The stats include total starts per post along with wins, win %, Top 3 finishes, and Top 3 %:

Best Posts For Winners

Since 2013, 4 different posts are tied for having produced the most winners.

Posts 5, 8, and 10 are all 2 for 11 (18.2%), but Post 7 boasts the highest percentage among multiple victors, with 2 from 10 starters (20%). The first post to three-peat could either be Catalytic (30/1), Honor Marie (20/1), Just a Touch (10/1), or T O Password (30/1).

Posts 13, 16, and 21 have each produced 1 winner at respective clips of 9.1% (1 for 11), 10% (1 for 10), and 25% (1 for 4). Anyone who wants to play an absolute bomb of a long shot should consider West Saratoga (50/1), Grand Mo the First (50/1), and Epic Ride (50/1).

Note that only 20 horses total may enter the gate, so any horse who draws post 21 has to benefit from another horse scratching.

Worst Posts For Winners

No horse has won the Derby from the 1 slot since Ferdinand in 1986, so drawing the rail must have stung the connections of Dornoch (20/1).

However, the only post to never have a Kentucky Derby winner is post 17. So who exits from post 17 this year? That would be the morning line favorite, Fierceness (5/2).

Along with 17, posts 2, 3, 4, and 14 all share the most starters (11) without a win. Looking to break this 0-fer streak will be #2 Sierra Leone (3/1), #3 Mystik Dan (20/1), #4 Catching Freedom 8/1, #14 Endlessly (30/1), and Fierceness.

Best & Worst Posts For Top 3 Finishes

Along with producing the most winners (2) in this span, post 5 also boasts the best production rate for finishing in the top 3, with 4 in-the-money finishers from 11 starters (36.4%). Catalytic will try adding to the tradition at what will surely be a square price.

Other trifecta-friendly starting gate slots include post 7, which has produced 3 finishers in the top 3 from 10 starters (30%). Additionally, posts 3 and 8 are each 3 for 11 (27.3%). This bodes well for Mystik Dan, Honor Marie, and Just a Touch.

On the flip side, 4 posts each share the distinction of having never produced an in-the-money finisher since 2013.

Posts 12 and 19 are each 0 for 9; sorry, #12 Track Phantom (20/1) and #19 Resilience (20/1). Post 15 is 0 for 10; our apologies, #15 Domestic Product (30/1).

But worst of all, post 2 is the clubhouse leader with an 0-11 run. Thoughts and prayers, Sierra Leone.

Note that posts 22 and 23 each debuted a runner in 2023, so we didn’t find it fair to poo-poo on them with such a small sample size.

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