Betting Tips

Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings

Here is a look at the current Kentucky Derby graded earings.  The top 20 get into the race, so this is your field as of today:

1. Hansen $1,550,000 – He is the graded earings leader, but can he actually win the Derby?  He looks to have distance limitations in my opinion.  Maybe an exotic play…

2. Daddy Long Legs $1,294,030 – He has been very impressive on turf and synthetics, but his dirt form is highly questionable.  Second in earnings but a throw out for me.

3. Union Rags $1,170,000 – Can you believe this horse is actually going to come into the Derby flying under the radar?  He’s been the “hype horse” almost all year, but things are quiet now.  I look for him to run a big race, but is he good enough to win it all?

4. Dullahan $855,000 – His trainer is very confident, but Dullahan has not run well on the dirt.  I’ll pass…

5. Creative Cause $836,000 – I think the distance of the Derby will fit this guy extremely well.  He’s got a big time chance.

6. Gemologist $703,855 – He’s undefeated and ran a big race in the Wood last out.  I think he’s still a little green, but looms very dangerous.

7. Sabercat $701,429 – He’s not quite up to this level.  Throw out for me.

8. Take Charge Indy $698,400 – He’ll be the most over bet horse in this race.  Calvin Borel is the rider, and his win in the Florida Derby was over some tough competition.  Any time Borel has a horse in this one you must respect it, but I’d be shocked if he actually wins.  Exotic play at best.

Bodemeister

9. Bodemeister $660,000 – Our pick as of this moment.  He could be something special.

10. I’ll Have Another $601,000 – This one is getting no respect.  SLEEPER!

11. Daddy Nose Best $545,558 – “Wise Guy” horse!  His win at Sunland was impressive, and it looks like he’ll love the Derby distance.  He got a good pace set up in his last race, and will likely get it again in this one.

12. Liaison $393,000 – His status is up in the air.  Baffert wants to see him train over the Churchill surface before he decides what to do.  Either way, I don’t see him having any say in the outcome.  Throw out.

13. Alpha $380,000 – Another “wise guy” horse, but has had some foot issues lately.  Not sure how serious they are, but hearing that has cooled me off on this one.

14. Prospective $367,327 – This one looks to be a throw out to me.

15. Trinniberg $324,500 – He’s a sprinter and automatic throw out.  However, he could have a huge impact on the race.  If the speed horses elect to chase him, it could cause a pace melt down.

16. Done Talking $311,000 – Pretty talented horse, but in over his head in this spot.

17. Went the Day Well $282,000 – He exits the same race as Animal Kingdom last year, and also has the same connections.  I don’t see him winning though, not quite as talented as Animal Kingdom

18. Rousing Sermon $270,000 – I love this horse because he always runs his heart out, but he’s just not fast enough to compete at this level.

19. Mark Valeski $260,000 – Logical longshot…maybe use in your deep exotic tickets.

20. El Padrino $250,000 – This is my long shot special.  I think he’ll rebound from his dull effort in the Florida Derby and run big here.  Exotic play for sure, maybe more…

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21. Isn’t He Clever $191,333 – He’s been transferred to the barn of Steve Asmussen, and is said to still be considering the Derby.  He’s on the outside looking in, but only needs one defection to get in.  He was pretty bad in the Arkansas Derby, but before then he looked to be heading in the right direction.

22. Optimizer $184,708 – D Wayne Lukas is still pointing him towards the Derby, and it’s not too far-fetched that he could get in.  He probably doesn’t deserve it, and if he gets in I don’t see him making much of an impact.

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