The Kentucky Derby (G1) Future Wager Pool 4 closed on Sunday, April 5, with a familiar choice atop the betting choices when “All Other 3-Year-Olds” finished as the 3/1 choice ahead of top individual options Tiz the Law (5/1) and Charlatan (5/1).
Likely due to the Kentucky Derby moving from May 2 to September 5, bettors were apprehensive to bet any individual choices that must wait five months before entering the Run for the Roses.
A week removed from his resounding Florida Derby (G1) victory, trainer Barclay Tagg’s Tiz the Law was bet down to co-leading honors alongside Charlatan, the late-blooming undefeated Bob Baffert pupil who most recently won a Santa Anita Park allowance event. Charlatan garnered $89 in win bets more than Tiz the Law.
Other horses attracting bettors’ interests included the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner Maxfield (9/1), the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Nadal (9/1), the San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Authentic (10/1), and the San Felipe runner-up Honor A. P. (15/1). Along with Charlatan, Baffert trains Nadal and Authentic.
The full results from Kentucky Derby Future Wager 4:
| # | HORSE NAME | ML ODDS | FINAL ODDS | GROSS WIN POOL | FINAL $ ODDS | $2 PAYOFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Authentic | 8 | 10 | $10,448.89 | 10.30 | $22.60 |
| 2 | Basin | 30 | 56 | $2,078.34 | 56.20 | $114.40 |
| 3 | Charlatan | 8 | 5 | $17,364.90 | 5.80 | $13.60 |
| 4 | Enforceable | 50 | 33 | $3,441.90 | 33.50 | $69.00 |
| 5 | Ete Indien | 20 | 29 | $3,923.51 | 29.30 | $60.60 |
| 6 | Excession | 20 | 85 | $1,378.62 | 85.30 | $172.60 |
| 7 | Gouverneur Morris | 30 | 31 | $3,622.86 | 31.80 | $65.60 |
| 8 | Honor A. P. | 12 | 15 | $7,005.16 | 15.90 | $33.80 |
| 9 | King Guillermo | 20 | 36 | $3,212.16 | 36.00 | $74.00 |
| 10 | Major Fed | 50 | 54 | $2,138.74 | 54.60 | $111.20 |
| 11 | Max Player | 50 | 67 | $1,745.36 | 67.20 | $136.40 |
| 12 | Maxfield | 20 | 9 | $11,209.42 | 9.60 | $21.20 |
| 13 | Mischevious Alex | 30 | 46 | $2,504.82 | 46.50 | $95.00 |
| 14 | Modernist | 50 | 50 | $2,298.99 | 50.70 | $103.40 |
| 15 | Nadal | 6 | 9 | $10,830.47 | 9.90 | $21.80 |
| 16 | Ny Traffic | 50 | 71 | $1,647.10 | 71.30 | $144.60 |
| 17 | Shivaree | 50 | 85 | $1,384.14 | 85.00 | $172.00 |
| 18 | Sole Volante | 30 | 34 | $3,369.97 | 34.30 | $70.60 |
| 19 | Storm the Court | 50 | 53 | $2,177.40 | 53.60 | $109.20 |
| 20 | Thousand Words | 30 | 45 | $2,553.52 | 45.60 | $93.20 |
| 21 | Three Technique | 50 | 63 | $1,858.68 | 63.00 | $128.00 |
| 22 | Tiz the Law | 6 | 5 | $17,275.96 | 5.80 | $13.60 |
| 23 | Wells Bayou | 30 | 28 | $4,089.66 | 28.10 | $58.20 |
| 24 | Mutuel Field (All Others) | 5-2 | 3 | $26,788.25 | 3.40 | $8.80 |
Here’s who some Racing Dudes members and fans thought were the best value plays in Pool 4:
Mike Somich: “All Others (3/1) – The Derby is just so far out and we have no idea how future points will be scored.”
Ricky Pasternak: “Wells Bayou (25/1) – Since turning 3, he’s absolutely dominated on the track. A second in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and a win in the Louisiana Derby (G2) make him one of the hottest horses in the country.”
Curtis “Magic” Kalleward: “Honor A. P. (15/1) – He was my top pick to win the Derby as a juvenile, despite making just two starts and winning the latter, because of his breeding and his connections. Now that the Derby is several months out, I expect trainer John Shirrefs to take his time planning out the perfect path to the first Saturday in September. If he makes the gate, then 15/1 will seem like a pure gift.”
Paul “Free Beers” Withrow: “Honor A. P. (15/1) – This horse looks bred to go long and both his sire and his dam got better with age. His odds floated up (he opened at 12/1), and if he stays healthy, 15/1 could be a steal in September.”
Ryan Stillman: “Cezanne hasn’t even debuted for the Baffert barn, yet he cost over $3.5 million, is by Curlin, and was a buzz horse before he ever sold. If he debuts and wins big, his price will drop.”
Editor’s note: Cezanne was not an individual entry, but Ryan’s point remains valid
Aaron Halterman: “The best value of this Kentucky Derby Future Pool would definitely be to not waste your money. Keep it in your pocket instead. This was a ridiculous pool. We don’t even know what the prep schedule will look like in the coming months.”
Jared Welch: “Charlatan (5/1) – I get it. Taking 5/1 on a horse to win the Kentucky Derby five months in advance who’s never ran in a stakes sounds a bit crazy, right? But there is no mistaken this horse is the most talented horse in the bunch and King Baffert has now been given the gift of time for him to develop. That’s scary. 5/1 is the definition of value when he will likely be half that in September.”
