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It’s been a blast starting off a new product with the Racing Dudes! Slim Pickins has been well received so far, so thank you all for the support early. We cashed our first bet of the year on Thursday Night Football when Buffalo Bills wide receive Gabriel Davis quickly scored the first touchdown of the season, so let’s keep it rolling into Sunday’s action!
I gave out my top three straight wagers of Week 1 Sunday on our debut of “Slim & Somo’s Thursday Night Halftime Betapalooza,” so check out those bets in the video below including an under on a stud running back on Sunday Night Football and touchdown projections for two big-time wide receivers here:
Tune in every Thursday night at halftime for my preview of the Sunday action with one of the best handicappers in the game Mike “Somobombs” Somich. We’ll cover the straight wagers on the show each week.
Before you do any gambling on NFL player props, I STRONGLY SUGGEST, you read my article on Wagering Strategy, Bankroll Management and DISCIPLINE here:
HOT NFL Player Props Action! | Slim Pickins Debuts; New TNF Halftime Show Announced!
These aspects are as important as the actual Player Handicapping discussed below. To bea winning player prop gambler in the long run, building strong skills in all four foundations of this game is important.
The parlays below are my new Slim Pickins product, which are FREE for Week 1, so enjoy:
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore RavensRavens at New York Jets, 9/11/22, 1 p.m. Eastern, CBS
Bet size: 1 unitOdds: +217
I love Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson this year in a contract year and think he’s going to destroy the Jets to start off his return to MVP status. I just don’t know if the game script guarantees overs for him, as he may not have to throw too much in the second half or run a lot to beat a bad Jets team.
The expected game script is for the Ravens to lead early, but how will they get there? The 2021 first-team All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews should have a big part in giving the Ravens a comfortable lead. The Jets gave up the 4th most receiving yards to tight ends last year and have a similar defense in 2022, except for possible superstar rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner, who may be locked on Ravens top wide receiver Rashad Bateman. Bateman takes over that duty from Marquise Brown, who was traded to Arizona in the off-season, so there are even less weapons from Lamar Jackson to use, so the reliance on Andrew’s may be even more punctuated above his career-high 107 catches of last year.
The Jets will likely so little resistance opening Andrews to do whatever he wants in the middle of the field. Jackson will have no trouble leaning on his top target early in this one. So why not try to more than triple my money utilizing a stud in Week 1 to go over his yardage target of 67.5 yards and score a TD? Andrew’s had 9 TDs total last year and averaged 110 yards per game receiving in the last 5 games last year, even with Lamar Jackson missing the last four of those games.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles at Detroit Lions, 9/11/22 1 p.m. Eastern, FOX
Bet size: 1 unitOdds: +431
If you watched my Slim Pickins season preview video (Check if out here), I called Jalen Hurts my 2022 quarterback break-out. He gets a great opportunity to “show out” in his first game of the year on the road against a Lions team, who were 9th worst against the pass last year. Going over 232.5 passing yards for Hurts could be a challenge if you think the Eagles will blow out the Lions, but in front of a sold-out crowd, the young stars in Detroit should hopefully make enough plays to keep the Eagles passing.
The Eagles offense was run-first at the later points of 2021, which is also concerning, but none of those games were played with budding superstar wide receiver Arthur Juan “A.J.” Brown on the Eagles. A.J. Brown is one of the most efficient players we’ve seen this millennium, but has been unable to stay completely healthy. He’s as healthy as he’s going to be this year and ready to explode on the fast turf track indoors on Sunday.
A.J. Brown is always a risk to break one or two big plays a game, so the 67.5 yards over is attainable with a couple big plays alone. You have to hope Hurts is more accurate going into his third year in the NFL than he was last year with only a 61.3% completion rate, but A.J. Brown should help that. Detroit was horrendous against #1 wide receivers last year, so I’m sure Hurts will look to exploit the Lions secondary for a TD to his new weapon. The +431 odds here is juicy playing this 3-part parlay that has been called the “chalk daily fantasy (DFS) stack” of the week.
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
49ers at Bears, 9/11/22 1 p.m. Eastern, FOX2-part parlay
Bet size: 1 unitOdds: +299
Possibly the two top running quarterbacks in the NFL face off in this one and I’m ready to play both of second-year QBs to go over their rushing yards prop lines.
In Trey Lance’s three games last year that he recorded more than 7 carries, he averaged almost 54 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. An average rushing game here puts Lance over his 34.5 rushing yards prop line versus a suspect Bears defense.
The game script may favor the 49ers leading early over the Bears, but that shouldn’t affect Justin Fields rushing yards, as he may be running for his life early behind a rag-tag offensive line. The 49ers did have the 7th best rush defense last year, but I feel this game can turn into a little “whatever you can do, I can do better match-up” between the two second-year QBs.
Operating in a possible prevent defense in the second-half, we could see Fields using his legs first to slide and run out of bounds chewing up yards to go over his 33.5 rushing yard line. So don’t get worried in the first half if Fields hasn’t had a lot of yards rushing yet. I spoke about Fields on my season preview video that you can watch here for some really good stats on why I like Fields rushing yards as a prop bet to play all year round.
I’m looking to get four times my money playing a fun one here with two young quarterbacks ready to run into Week 1.
Enjoy the picks and please tweet at me @SaratogaSlim or e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
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