It’s that time of year when we’re all analyzing the Kentucky Derby from every angle imaginable. Everyone is trying to pick the winner, but I’ll start with a different angle. I’m going to throw out five horses who have no chance to win on the first Saturday in May, and that seems like an easier task this year than ever before. When I did this article last year, I listed Shagaf (finished 20th), Trojan Nation (16th), Tom’s Ready (12th), My Man Sam (11th), and Majesto (18th). Here are the five horses who I believe have no shot to win the Kentucky Derby:
Usually, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby is a major contender for the Kentucky Derby, but this year’s race came back as one of the weakest runnings ever. Gormley has had some good moments during his career as a multiple Grade 1 winner, but he’s turned in two pathetic efforts when facing top-flight company: in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he was a complete non-factor, and in the San Felipe Stakes, where Mastery dominated him. When running against nineteen of the best horses in the crop, I don’t like his chances.
2. Battle of Midway
As previously mentioned with Gormley, this year’s Santa Anita Derby was extremely weak. Battle of Midway did set pretty decent fractions on the front end before just being edged by Gormley to finish second, but he’s likely to face even more pace pressure in the Kentucky Derby. Plus, the colt is still lightly raced and may not be ready for a race of this magnitude. As much respect as I have for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, I don’t think he can win the Kentucky Derby with this horse.
This is too much too soon for him. He’ll be making just the fourth start of his career in the Kentucky Derby, yet he’s still eligible for an entry-level allowance race. Patch is developing into a really nice horse, but my fear is that entering this race will actually hurt his development. Hopefully, he can work out a decent trip and not get discouraged. Plus, we are still unsure how talented the group of horses coming out of Fair Grounds truly are, which makes his second in the Louisiana Derby hard to gauge.
With Cloud Computing not running in the Kentucky Derby (smart), that means Untrapped will make the starting gate. That’s good news for the connections of this horse, as running in the Derby is a once-in-a-lifetime experience, but I don’t think that he has any shot to win. This horse is without question the ultimate grinder, but actually winning a race like this is a far stretch. Much like Patch, he has won just once and is still eligible for an entry-level allowance race.
5. Lookin At Lee OR Malagacy
Right now, Lookin At Lee sits at #21 in the point standings, while Malagacy’s connections are mulling over either running in the Kentucky Derby or going to a shorter race. Either way, neither horse has a shot. Lookin At Lee is the type of horse everyone seems to love for some reason, and every time, he burns their money. He’s always closing with a decent kick that makes you think he’s going to win, yet he comes up short. He is the ultimate “next time” horse, and that’s not going to change in Kentucky. If Malagacy ends up running, he will really be up against it. He’s definitely a one-turn horse. He might even be a special one turn horse, but he doesn’t have the same kick going long.