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It’s that time of year…we all are analyzing the Kentucky Derby from every angle imaginable. Everyone is trying to pick a Kentucky Derby winner, but today I’ll start with a different angle. I’m going to throw out five horses who have no chance to win on the first Saturday in May. Here are the five horses who I believe have no shot to win the Kentucky Derby:
My old friend Shagaf lands in the spot of my number one horse that can’t win the Kentucky Derby! If you remember I wrote an article stating I did not believe Shagaf was a legit Kentucky Derby before he won the Gotham Stakes in March. The Gotham Stakes made me squirm a little bit, but his race in the Wood Memorial confirmed to me that Shagaf is indeed a pretender. He’ll have to pull an absolute 180 while improving fifteen lengths to make an impact in this race. The only thing that scares me is his trainer, Chad Brown, who I hold in high regard.
Lets start with the obvious…he’s a maiden! How about this…he hadn’t even finished in the exacta before running second in the Wood Memorial as a huge longshot. I have no idea if it was the slop that moved this horse up that day, or a very weak field, but he is extremely unlikely to make any impact in the Kentucky Derby. Congrats to the connections for getting him into the race, but don’t look for them anywhere near the winners circle.
Dallas Stewart is back once again with a longshot in a Triple Crown race, and once again he’ll have a chance to blow up your exacta’s and trifecta’s when his horse hits the board. However, as far as winning the race Tom’s Ready has little chance. He’s been beaten very easily by Gun Runner a couple of times, and basically he hasn’t shown that he is fast enough to make any real noise. Sure you can’t leave him off on your tickets underneath, but don’t put him on top.
Late onto the scene, My Man Sam impressed many in the Bluegrass Stakes, but I’m not falling for him. His running style puts him in major jeopardy in a race like the Kentucky Derby, and lets face it he was a nose away from not even qualifying for the race. The horse that he was all out to beat for second in the Bluegrass was Cherry Wine who is currently not in the Kentucky Derby, and not one I’m overly high on. Deep closers will take money often times in this race, but this one won’t take any of mine.
He’s the only horse on the list that I hesitated to include, but in the end he just isn’t fast enough to win this race. I’ll start with the positive which is he has turned into a different horse when going two turns. However, he has ran mostly slow races, and he has not been competitive with the winners of the stakes races he has ran in. Could be a late developing type of horse, but not one that I think will be ready to shine in the Kentucky Derby.
Purchase our ONE MONTH PRO PACKAGE anytime before May 6th and receive our full card KENTUCKY OAKS TIPS, KENTUCKY DERBY TIPS and PREAKNESS TIPS for no additional charge. As an added bonus you will also receive our exclusive 20-page KENTUCKY OAKS/DERBY WAGERING GUIDE ($25 value). This standalone product contains horse capsules for each of the horses running including: Jockey, Trainer, Projected Odds, Running Style, Last 5 Races, Pros, Cons & Bottom Line along with wagering strategy including trifecta, superfecta and Oaks/Derby double approach. We’ve also included historical pace analysis including late pace numbers to help pick longshots to hit the board. If that’s not enough, this guide includes the running styles for the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners, a Kentucky Derby workout report and picks for the Oaks and Derby from multiple professional handicappers.
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