Early 2021 Breeders’ Cup Predictions #4: Are We Facing A Chalk Fest?

For the final weeks leading up to the 2021 Breeders’ Cup, we’ll give our top picks for all 14 races. This week, we wonder: are we facing a chalk fest? Will the races be won mostly by big favorites? Where do we think we’ll find potential price plays?

Here’s our fourth set of predictions for the year-end World Championships, which will be held November 5-6 at Del Mar:

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Saturday, November 6, 2021

Longines Classic

Pick: Essential Quality 

Cox has them over a barrel here with two big gray monsters, both of which have different running styles. For my money right now, I’ll take Essential Quality, with the assumption that Knicks Go will face some pace pressure that softens him up. This is a true situation where pace will make the race. If it looks like Knicks Go can be lone speed, then he will be the one who takes home the big prize. Time will tell what the pace scenario will ultimately look like.

Longines Turf

Pick: Tarnawa  

Let’s face it, if she ships over again and shows up with her normal effort, then the rest are running for second. She’s put up back-to-back efforts overseas that are much better than anything that will be in this field. It’ll be interesting to see if she defends last year’s title.

Longines Distaff

Pick: Private Mission  

I’ve been looking for a horse to beat the mighty Letruska and finally settled on Private Mission after her impressive win in the Zenyatta Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. She also has a solid win over the Del Mar surface and she has has the running style to hang with Letruska early.

FanDuel Mile Presented by PDJF

Pick: Mo Forza

We know this horse loves Del Mar and we also know his talent level is extremely high. If Miller can keep him healthy, which has been his main issue, then he should be hard to beat in this spot. He looked sharp in his most recent prep, winning the City of Hope Mile Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita.

Sprint

Pick: Jackie’s Warrior

It’ll be hard for me to pick against this horse unless we really see something spectacular in the last few prep races leading up to the big day. He was simply awesome at Saratoga when defeating Life Is Good, who might be better than anything Jackie’s Warrior will face in this race. Trainer Steve Asmussen has a ton of quality sprinters headed towards this event and this is his best one. His last prep race should set him up perfectly for the Breeders’ Cup.

Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf

Pick: War Like Goddess 

This filly is the pick for now after 2 monster efforts at Saratoga against stakes company. She hasn’t faced a field quite like what she’ll see at Del Mar, though, so we’re still anxiously awaiting who might ship in from overseas.

Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile

Pick: Life Is Good 

Wow, does this horse have a ton of talent. He crushed the Kelso Handicap (G2) field with ease on his way to the Dirt Mile, where he’ll be a major favorite. It’s hard to see him losing this race if he shows up with his best effort.

Turf Sprint

Pick: Lieutenant Dan

Here’s the good news: our longshot pick in this race for the fourth straight week won the Eddie D Stakes (G2) last weekend at Santa Anita. Here’s the bad news: that victory means we’ll get a much lower price on him at Del Mar. Still, I’ll stick with him for now because he loves Del Mar and is on fire coming into the race.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Pick: Bella Sophia

Let’s take a swing against the heavily-favored Gamine with a horse who’s been ultra-impressive in her last few starts. She seems to be the only one in the group who can compete with the defending champ, so perhaps she can upset at a nice price.

Future Stars Friday, November 5, 2021

TVG Juvenile Presented by the TAA

Pick: Corniche

We’ll leave him as the pick for now after a very nice win in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), but this field looks like it’s going to be loaded. He’ll have several worthy challengers, including Champagne Stakes (G1) Jack Christopher, but we’ll stick with Corniche for another week.

Juvenile Turf

Pick: Annapolis  

He’s been our pick for the first 3 weeks of this article, so why would we change after he fought hard to win the Pilgrim Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park in his second start? It wasn’t a “take your breath away” type of race; however, he was solid and earned a nice 89 Beyer Speed Figure for the victory.

Juvenile Fillies

Pick: Echo Zulu

She looks like she could be a single after another dominating effort in the Frizette Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. Attemping two turns remains her biggest question mark, but she stretched out to a mile just fine in her latest blowout victory.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Pick: Wild Beauty

A few weeks ago, we said that our pick was “European to be named later.” We now have our horse after Wild Beauty won like a monster in the Natalma Stakes (G1) at Woodbine. Right now, trainer Charlie Appleby looks nearly impossible to beat in the United States.

Juvenile Turf Sprint

Pick: One Timer

This field is still fairly wide-open, but we’ll go with One Timer for now. He’s shown great speed in his starts so far and was fairly impressive in the Speakeasy Stakes. However, we still have a couple of more races to analyze this coming weekend.