Churchill Downs Pick 6 Analysis 5-31-12

There is a $53,530 carryover today for the Churchill Downs Pick 6.  Here is our large and small ticket for those trying to hit it.  Good luck!

Large Ticket

Race 4: 1,3,4,5

Race 5: 2,3,5

Race 6: 2,3

Race 7: 5,6

Race 8: 5,7

Race 9: 6,7,9

Cost: $576

Analysis: After looking over the card this looks like it has a chance to carryover, so playing this large of a ticket could be a waste.  The fourth and fifth race seem extremely difficult.  The sixth might have a single in Regal Nurse, but I don’t believe she is a lock by any means.  Going two deep in the 7th is a huge risk, so if you think you can get by with a couple singles, you might add a few more in that one.  Race 8 is fairly straight forward, and then the ninth is a MSW for two-year olds so who knows there.

Small Ticket

Race 4: 3,4

Race 5: 2,5

Race 6: 2,3

Race 7: 6

Race 8: 5,7

Race 9: 9

Cost: $32

Analysis: I think this is the more reasonable play, but the chances of hitting it go down quite a bit.  My two singles in the 7th are risky, considering one is 6-1 on the morning line, and one is a unraced two-year old.  Just playing a hunch that Asmussen will have the two-year old ready, and I like Motion on the turf.  Like I said earlier, I think there is a chance of a carryover, so playing light may be the way to go.