Racing Dudes Kentucky Derby Rankings 5/14/20: Preps Return with Matt Winn

Welcome to the 2020 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse. You can also visit our Kentucky Derby page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more!

Obviously, things have changed, and will continue to change, with the Kentucky Derby now moved to Saturday, September 5. We’ll still come at you with updates along the way, as well as the latest news on the race. Here’s our latest Top 20 with the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) up this weekend:  

1. Nadal

Derby Points/Rank: 150 – 1st

Race Record: (4) 4-0-0

Earnings: $1,053,000

Breeding: Blame – Ascending Angel (Pulpit)

Owner: George Bolton, Arthur Hoyeau, Barry Lipman, and Mark Mathiesen

Trainer: Bob Baffert 

Last Race: 1st, Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Paul “Free Beers” Withrow 

Analysis: We’ve got a new number one for the first time in a while after Nadal’s impressive win in Division 2 of the Arkansas Derby (G1). There is no doubt he drew into the tougher of the two races; however, that didn’t seem to matter. After showing he could relax in the early stages of the race for the first time, Nadal finished with much more punch than his previous races, which is exactly what he had do prove he could do. He’s the one to beat as of now. 

2. Tiz the Law 

Derby Points/Rank: 122 – 2nd

Race Record: (5) 4-0-1

Earnings: $945,300

Breeding: Constitution – Tizfiz (Tiznow)

Owner: Sackatoga Stable 

Trainer: Barcaly Tagg

Last Race: 1st, Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike 

Analysis: He turned the Florida Derby (G1) into a romp over one of the better fields of the season. His running style is perfect for the Kentucky Derby, while he’s shown his consistency this season. We also haven’t seen the best from him yet as he has won both of his races this season under wraps. He drops to number two on our rankings this week, but that doesn’t mean he’s still not a prime time contender. 

3. Charlatan 

Derby Points/Rank: 100 – 4th

Race Record: (3) 3-0-0

Earnings: $367,200

Breeding: Speightstown – Authenticity (Quiet American)

Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich, John Fielding, and Golconda Stables  

Trainer: Bob Baffert  

Last Race: 1st, Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Mike “Saratoga Slim” Spector  

Analysis: There is no doubt he drew into the weaker of the two divisions of the Arkansas Derby (G1), which worked out perfectly for his first try against stakes company. Nobody could run with him early once again in this race, which saw him cruise to a wire to wire victory. This was his least impressive performance yet, though, while it’s still questionable that he wants to go the Kentucky Derby distance. Still, this horse has a tremendous amount of ability.  

4. Authentic 

Derby Points/Rank: 60 – 8th

Race Record: (3) 3-0-0

Earnings: $331,200

Breeding: Into Mischief – Flawless (Mr. Greeley)

Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich, John Fielding, and Golconda Stabels 

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Last Race: 1st, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman 

Analysis: He backed up a his solid Sham Stakes (G3) win with another wire to wire victory in the San Felipe Stakes (G2). There is no doubt he is one of the most talented horses in the crop after these victories. The only question mark left with him is the distances getting longer. Can he carry his speed at a mile and 1/4? His pedigree suggests it could be a challenge. He recently worked a sizzling six furlongs at Santa Anita, which suggests he’s ready to roll. 

5. Honor A. P.

Derby Points/Rank: 20 – 23rd

Race Record: (3) 1-2-0

Earnings: $122,200

Breeding: Honor Code – Hollywood Story (Wild Rush)

Owner: C R K Stable LLC

Trainer: John Shirreffs 

Last Race: 2nd, San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White and Ryan Stillman

Analysis: We finally got to see him run in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), which was a solid second place effort. He has every right to improve off of that race as well, with it being his first in five months. This also looks like a horse that is going to love going the Kentucky Derby distance. Let’s hope he can stay healthy.  He should run next in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

6. Ete Indien 

Derby Points/Rank: 74 – 6th 

Race Record: (6) 3-1-1

Earnings: $405,156

Breeding: Summer Front – East India (Mizzen Mast)

Owner: Linda Shanahan, Sanford Bacon, Dream With Me Stable Inc., Horse France America, D P Racing LLC (Deron Pearson) & Patrick L. Biancone Racing LLC

Trainer: Patrick Biancone 

Last Race: 3rd, Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jared Welch  

Analysis: Nothing went his way in the Florida Derby (G1); however, he still showed a lot of heart to finish third. He drew wide, lost a shoe, and was cut during the race, but still didn’t quit. He may not be as talented as a horse like Tiz the Law, but this is a horse that is always going to be difficult to beat. 

7. King Guillermo  

Derby Points/Rank: 90 – 5th

Race Record: (5) 2-1-1

Earnings: $340,350

Breeding: Uncle Mo – Slow Sand (Dixieland Band)

Owner: Victoria’s Ranch

Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila 

Last Race: 2nd, Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Austin and Evil Steveil   

Analysis: It’s funny that we were all skeptical of this horse after he won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2); however, now we all believe in him after losing division 2 of the Arkansas Derby (G1). His loss showed that he can repeat that top effort, though, when finishing a solid second to the powerful Nadal. We now know to take this horse very serous moving forward to the next round of potential prep events.

8. Sole Volante  

Derby Points/Rank: 30 – 17th 

Race Record: (5) 3-1-1

Earnings: $266,310

Breeding: Karakontie – Light Blow (Kingmambo)

Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone, and Limelight Stable Corp.

Trainer: Patrick Biancone 

Last Race: 2nd, Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Real Dynasty 

Analysis: He backed up his performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) with solid runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). His running style is always going to leave him with a lot of work to do in the stretch, especially in a race like the Kentucky Derby. You can rely on him to come with a big run in the end, though, which makes him interesting in the underneath positions. 

9. Maxfield 

Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 33rd

Race Record: (2) 2-0-0

Earnings: $354,412

Breeding: Street Sense – Velvety (Bernardini) 

Owner: Godolphin, LLC

Trainer: Brendan Walsh 

Last Race: 1st, Breeders Futurity (G1) at Keeneland 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jared Welch

Analysis: This colt was extremely solid as a 2-year-old, which made people excited about his chances in big races this year. Now, we’ll finally get to see how he’s matured since a nice 2019, as he makes his much anticipated return in this weekend Matt Winn Stakes (G3). We’ll know more about him after this start. 

10. Enforceable 

Derby Points/Rank: 33 – 15th

Race Record: (9) 2-2-2

Earnings: $367,150

Breeding: Tapit – Justwhistledixie (Dixie Union)

Owner: John Oxley 

Trainer: Mark Casse 

Last Race: 5th, Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike

Analysis: His off the board finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) isn’t to concerning considering his rough trip. However, with his running style, he is always going to have a big chance for those problems. The Kentucky Derby will only maximize those issues. 

11. Basin

Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 10th

Race Record: (6) 2-2-1

Earnings: $471,000

Breeding: Liam’s Map – Appenzel (Johannesberg)

Owner: Jackpot Farm

Trainer: Steve Asmussen 

Last Race: 2nd, Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White and Ryan Stillman 

Analysis: His Arkansas Derby (G1) runner up effort to Charlatan was exactly what he needed after a lackluster effort in the Oaklawn Stakes. We always thought this horse would be good enough to jump back into contention, so it’s nice to see him back on the list. He may end up proving to be Asmussen’s best 3-year-old.

12. Modernist 

Derby Points/Rank: 70 – 7th 

Race Record: (5) 2-0-2

Earnings: $388,800

Breeding: Uncle Mo – Symbolic Gesture (Bernardini) 

Owner: Pam and Martin Wygood 

Trainer: Bill Mott

Last Race: 3rd, Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike

Analysis: This horse ran pretty well to finish 3rd in the Louisiana Derby (G2), especially since he broke from the far outside 14-post. He may benefit from the extra time for the Kentucky Derby, considering he still seems to be developing. 

13. Mr. Monomoy 

Derby Points/Rank: 52 – 9th 

Race Record: (5) 2-1-1

Earnings: $327,162

Breeding: Palace Malice – Drumette (Henny Hughes)

Owner: Madaket Stables LLC, Michael Dubb, and Doheny Racing Stable

Trainer: Brad Cox 

Last Race: 1st, Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Real Dynasty 

Analysis: We’ve put this colt back on the list since the race has been moved. His talents are still in question; however, he probably has enough points to make the race. How he recovers from his injury will determine if he makes the starting gate. 

14. Gouverneur Morris

Derby Points/Rank: 34 – 14th 

Race Record: (5) 2-1-1

Earnings: $247,500

Breeding: Constitution – Addison Run (Unbridled’s Song)

Owner: Team Valor International and WinStar Farm LLC

Trainer: Todd Pletcher 

Last Race: 3rd, Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park  

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “Wise Dan” Waite

Analysis: This horse continues to show his class in big races. He ran decent once again in the division 1 of the Arkansas Derby (G1), finishing third to Charlatan. However, it seems like he could have some distance issues, after making big moves on the turn twice only to flatten out in the stretch. He is still one that can make some noise as we head into the summer. 

15. Wells Bayou  

Derby Points/Rank: 100 – 3rd 

Race Record: (6) 3-1-0

Earnings: $860,293

Breeding: Lookin At Lucky – Whispering Angel (Hard Spun)

Owner: Clint Gasaway, Lance Gasaway, Madaket Stables LLC, and Wonder Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox 

Last Race: 5th, Arkansas Derby (G2) at Oaklawn Park 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Austin/Evil Steveil  

Analysis: He was given a tough chore in Division 2 of the Arkansas Derby (G1), being asked to set a hot pace, with the monster Nadal breathing down his neck. Wells Bayou was not able to stick around to hit the board; however, it’s a positive that he at least finished fifth. This is a useful horse that still has a shot to be successful throughout the rest of this season. 

16. Ny Traffic 

Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 12th 

Race Record: (7) 2-1-2

Earnings: $336,970

Breeding: Cross Traffic – Mamie Reilly (Graeme Hall)

Owner: John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing, and Paul Braverman

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Last Race: 2nd, Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE 

Analysis: You have to start taking this horse seriously, with him being 9th in the standings. This year, he has hit he board in all three of his starts, including a runner up finish last time out in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He could be a valuable horse to have when we eventually know what races will be involved in the second round of preps.

17. Shivaree  

Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 13th

Race Record: (10) 3-3-1

Earnings: $338,055

Breeding: Awesome of Course – Garter Belt (Anasheed)

Owner: Jacks or Better Farm, Inc.

Trainer: Ralph Nicks  

Last Race: 2nd, Florida Derby (G2) at Gulfstream Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: NONE

Analysis: Three straight runner-up efforts against stakes company, including the Florida Derby (G1) last time out, has earned this horse a spot in the rankings. The chances of him making a solid impact in the Kentucky Derby are slim, but there is no doubt he can make the race, depending on what the new points system looks like moving forward. 

18. Mischevious Alex 

Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 11th

Race Record: (7) 4-1-1

Earnings: $344.230

Breeding: Into Mischief – White Pants Night (Speightstown)

Owner: Cash is King LLC and LC Racing   

Trainer: John C. Servis 

Last Race: 1st, Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Austin/Evil Steveil 

Analysis: At one turn, this horse is pretty impressive, but his two-turn form is yet to be seen. It’s highly questionable if he can get the Kentucky Derby distance, which is why we have him ranked this low.  

19. Max Player 

Derby Points/Rank: 10 – 37th

Race Record: (3) 2-1-0

Earnings: $173,500

Breeding: Honor Code – Fools in Love (Not For Love)

Owner: George Hall 

Trainer: Linda Rice

Last Race: 1st, Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “Wise Dan” Waite 

Analysis: The Withers Stakes (G3) winner is now on the Kentucky Derby scene, even though the race wasn’t all that fast. Still, his pedigree is solid, and he did show a nice closing kick. He’s probable to start in the Belmont Stakes on June 20.  

20. Pneumatic 

Derby Points/Rank: 0 – NR

Race Record: (2) 2-0-0

Earnings: $87,600

Breeding: Uncle Mo – Teardrop (Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC

Trainer: Steve Asmussen 

Last Race: 1st, Allowance at Oaklawn Park 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman 

Analysis: This horse could be a rising star after two straight impressive wins at Oaklawn Park. In his recent victory, he dominated allowance foes with an effortless rally down the stretch. He’ll move up to stakes company this weekend with a start in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3).