Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks 2026 Betting Bible
Aaron Halterman
Happy Derby Day!!
Jared Welch
It’s Derby Day — time to bet smart and cash tickets!
Races & Bet Summaries
1 Maiden Special Weight $20 Win - #11 Powershift $10 Win - #3 Silent Way
Aaron Halterman | Win |
11Powershift
|
|---|---|
| Place |
3Silent Way
|
| Show |
8Bourbon Dream
|
| Next Best |
6Cromwell
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #11 Powershift
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 3,11/3,8,11
Trifecta - 3,11/3,6,8,11/3,6,8,11
Superfecta - 3,6,8,11 BOX
Daily Double - 3,11 / 4,8
Jared Welch | Win |
3Silent Way
|
|---|---|
| Place |
11Powershift
|
| Show |
2Stakeholder
|
| Next Best |
8Bourbon Dream
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #3 Silent Way
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 3,11/2,3,11
Trifecta - 3,11/2,3,8,11/2,3,8,11
Superfecta - 2,3,8,11 BOX
Daily Double - 3,11 / 4,8
2 Allowance Optional Claiming $20 Win - #8 Taptastic $10 Win - #4 Memory
Aaron Halterman | Win |
8Taptastic
|
|---|---|
| Place |
4Memory
|
| Show |
1Out of the Woods
|
| Next Best |
2Sovereign Law
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #8 Taptastic
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 4,8/1,4,8
Trifecta - 4,8/1,2,4,8/1,2,4,8
Superfecta - 1,2,4,8 BOX
Daily Double - 4,8 / 5,6
Jared Welch | Win |
4Memory
|
|---|---|
| Place |
8Taptastic
|
| Show |
1Out of the Woods
|
| Next Best |
2Sovereign Law
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #4 Memory
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 1,4,8 BOX
Trifecta - 1,2,4,8 BOX
Superfecta - 1,2,4,8 BOX
Daily Double - 4,8 / 5,10
3 Allowance Optional Claiming SKIP $5 Double - 5,10 / 5
Aaron Halterman | Win |
5John Hancock
|
|---|---|
| Place |
6Who Dey
|
| Show |
12Praetor
|
| Next Best |
9Keewaydin
|
- Best Bet
- SKIP
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 5,6,12 BOX
Trifecta - 5,6,9,12 BOX
Superfecta - 5,6,9,12 BOX
Daily Double - 5,6 / 4,5
Jared Welch | Win |
10Vibe
|
|---|---|
| Place |
5John Hancock
|
| Show |
6Who Dey
|
| Next Best |
12Praetor
|
- Best Bet
- $5 Double - 5,10 / 5
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #10 - Vibe
Exacta - 5,6,10 BOX
Trifecta - 5,6,10,12 BOX
Superfecta - 5,6,10,12 BOX
4 Derby City Distaff Stakes (G1) $20 Win - #5 Splendora $20 Win - #5 Splendora
Aaron Halterman | Win |
5Splendora
|
|---|---|
| Place |
4Ways and Means
|
| Show |
6R Disaster
|
| Next Best |
1Usha
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #5 Splendora
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 4,5/4,5,6
Trifecta - 4,5/4,5,6/1,4,5,6
Superfecta - 4,5/4,5/1,6/1,6
Daily Double - 4,5 / 3,9
Jared Welch | Win |
5Splendora
|
|---|---|
| Place |
4Ways and Means
|
| Show |
1Usha
|
| Next Best |
6R Disaster
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #5 Splendora
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 4,5/1,4,5
Trifecta - 4,5/1,4,5,6/1,4,5,6
Superfecta - 5/4/1,6/1,6
Daily Double - 4,5 / 3,9
5 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes (G2) $10 Win - #3 My Boy Prince $5 Double - 3,9 / 4,10
Aaron Halterman | Win |
3My Boy Prince
|
|---|---|
| Place |
9Litigation
|
| Show |
7Yellow Card
|
| Next Best |
10Joe Shiesty
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #3 My Boy Prince
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 3,7,9 BOX
Trifecta - 3,7,9,10 BOX
Superfecta - 3,7,9,10 BOX
Daily Double - 3,9 / 4,10
Jared Welch | Win |
9Litigation
|
|---|---|
| Place |
3My Boy Prince
|
| Show |
7Yellow Card
|
| Next Best |
10Joe Shiesty
|
- Best Bet
- $5 Double - 3,9 / 4,10
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #9 Litigation
Exacta - 3,7,9 BOX
Trifecta - 3,7,9,10 BOX
Superfecta - 3,7,9,10 BOX
6 Knicks Go Overnight Stakes SKIP $10 Win - #10 Capital Idea
Aaron Halterman | Win |
10Capital Idea
|
|---|---|
| Place |
4Be You
|
| Show |
6Tour Player
|
| Next Best |
2Dragoon Guard
|
- Best Bet
- SKIP
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 4,6,10 BOX
Trifecta - 2,4,6,10 BOX
Superfecta - 2,4,6,10 BOX
Daily Double - 4,10 / 2,3
Jared Welch | Win |
10Capital Idea
|
|---|---|
| Place |
4Be You
|
| Show |
2Dragoon Guard
|
| Next Best |
6Tour Player
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #10 Capital Idea
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 2,4,10 BOX
Trifecta - 2,4,6,10 BOX
Superfecta - 2,4,6,10 BOX
Daily Double - 4,10 / 3,8
7 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G2) SKIP $10 Double - 3,8 / 1
Aaron Halterman | Win |
3Portfolio Duration
|
|---|---|
| Place |
2Sweet Rebecca
|
| Show |
4Temptable
|
| Next Best |
8Pin Up Betty
|
- Best Bet
- SKIP
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 2,3,4 BOX
Trifecta - 2,3,4,8 BOX
Superfecta - 2,3,4,8 BOX
Daily Double - 2,3 / 1,6
Jared Welch | Win |
8Pin Up Betty
|
|---|---|
| Place |
3Portfolio Duration
|
| Show |
2Sweet Rebecca
|
| Next Best |
4Temptable
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Double - 3,8 / 1
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #8 Pin Up Betty
Exacta - 2,3,8 BOX
Trifecta - 2,3,4,8 BOX
Superfecta - 2,3,4,8
8 Pat Day Mile Stakes (G2) $20 Win - #1 Englishman $20 Win - #1 Englishman
Aaron Halterman | Win |
1Englishman
|
|---|---|
| Place |
6Crude Velocity
|
| Show |
7Crown the Buckeye
|
| Next Best |
2Trouble Calling
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #1 Englishman
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 1,6/1,6,7
Trifecta - 1,6/1,2,6,7/1,2,6,7
Superfecta - 1,2,6,7 BOX
Daily Double - 1,6 / 4,12
Jared Welch | Win |
1Englishman
|
|---|---|
| Place |
6Crude Velocity
|
| Show |
4Secured Freedom
|
| Next Best |
5Stop the Car
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #1 Englishman
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 1,6/1,4,6
Trifecta - 1,6/1,4,5,6/1,4,5,6
Superfecta - 1,4,5,6 BOX
Daily Double - 1,6 / 4,12
9 American Turf Stakes (G1) $10 Win - #4 Stark Contrast $20 Win - #4 Stark Contrast
Aaron Halterman | Win |
4Stark Contrast
|
|---|---|
| Place |
12Remember Mamba
|
| Show |
7Alpyland
|
| Next Best |
8Greenwich Village
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #4 Stark Contrast
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 4,7,12 BOX
Trifecta - 4,7,8,12 BOX
Superfecta - 4,7,8,12 BOX
Daily Double - 4,12 / 6,7
Jared Welch | Win |
4Stark Contrast
|
|---|---|
| Place |
12Remember Mamba
|
| Show |
7Alpyland
|
| Next Best |
8Greenwich Village
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #4 Stark Contrast
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 4,7,12 BOX
Trifecta - 4,7,8,12 BOX
Superfecta - 4,7,8,12 BOX
Daily Double - 4,12 / 2,6
10 Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) $50 Win - #6 Knightsbridge $40 Win - #6 Knightsbridge
Aaron Halterman | Win |
6Knightsbridge
|
|---|---|
| Place |
7Imagination
|
| Show |
2Cornucopian
|
| Next Best |
1Disco Time
|
- Best Bet
- $50 Win - #6 Knightsbridge
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 6,7/2,6,7
Trifecta - 6,7/1,2,6,7/1,2,6,7
Superfecta - 1,2,6,7 BOX
Daily Double - 6,7 / 6,9
Jared Welch | Win |
6Knightsbridge
|
|---|---|
| Place |
2Cornucopian
|
| Show |
7Imagination
|
| Next Best |
1Disco Time
|
- Best Bet
- $40 Win - #6 Knightsbridge
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 2,6/2,6,7
Trifecta - 2,6/1,2,6,7/1,2,6,7
Superfecta - 1,2,6,7 BOX
Daily Double - 2,6 / 5,6
11 Old Forester Turf Classic Stakes (G1) $20 Win - #6 Rhetorical $10 Win - #5 Mercante
Aaron Halterman | Win |
6Rhetorical
|
|---|---|
| Place |
9Test Score
|
| Show |
3Asbury Park
|
| Next Best |
1Corruption
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #6 Rhetorical
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 3,6,9 BOX
Trifecta - 1,3,6,9 BOX
Superfecta - 1,3,6,9 BOX
Daily Double - 6,9 / 6,9,12,18
Jared Welch | Win |
5Mercante
|
|---|---|
| Place |
6Rhetorical
|
| Show |
4Program Trading
|
| Next Best |
9Test Score
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #5 Mercante
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 4,5,6 BOX
Trifecta - 4,5,6,9 BOX
Superfecta - 4,5,6,9 BOX
Daily Double - 5,6 / 6,9,14,18
12 Kentucky Derby (G1) $.50 Trifecta - 1,6,12,18 / 1,6,12,18 / 1,6,7,8,12,14,15,18 $.50 Trifecta - 6,14,18 / 1,6,14,18 / 1,6,7,8,11,12,14,15,16,18,19
Aaron Halterman | Win |
6Commandment
|
|---|---|
| Place |
18Further Ado
|
| Show |
12Chief Wallabee
|
| Next Best |
1Renegade
|
- Best Bet
- $.50 Trifecta - 1,6,12,18 / 1,6,12,18 / 1,6,7,8,12,14,15,18
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #6 Commandment
Exacta - 1,6,12,18 BOX
Superfecta - 6,18 / 1,6,12,18 / 1,6,12,18 / 1,6,7,8,12,14,15,18
Daily Double - 6,18 / 8,11
Jared Welch | Win |
18Further Ado
|
|---|---|
| Place |
6Commandment
|
| Show |
14Potente
|
| Next Best |
1Renegade
|
- Best Bet
- $.50 Trifecta - 6,14,18 / 1,6,14,18 / 1,6,7,8,11,12,14,15,16,18,19
- More Suggested Bets
-
Win - #18 Further Ado
Exacta - 6,18/1,6,14,18 | 1,12,14/18
Superfecta - 6,14,18 / 1,6,14,18 / 1,6,12,14,18 / 1,6,7,8,12,14,15,18,19
Daily Double - 6,18 / 8,11
13 Allowance Optional Claiming $20 Win - #8 Gilded Bandit $20 Win - #8 Gilded Bandit
Aaron Halterman | Win |
8Gilded Bandit
|
|---|---|
| Place |
11Noble Affair
|
| Show |
1Small Town
|
| Next Best |
10Buetane
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #8 Gilded Bandit
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 8,11/1,8,11
Trifecta - 8,11/1,8,10,11/1,8,10,11
Superfecta - 1,8,10,11 BOX
Daily Double - 8,11 / 7,9
Jared Welch | Win |
8Gilded Bandit
|
|---|---|
| Place |
11Noble Affair
|
| Show |
1Small Town
|
| Next Best |
2Heartily
|
- Best Bet
- $20 Win - #8 Gilded Bandit
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 1,8,11 BOX
Trifecta - 1,2,8,11 BOX
Superfecta - 1,2,8,11 BOX
Daily Double - 8,11 / 3,9
14 Maiden Special Weight $10 Win - #9 Big Jake $10 Win - #3 Interrogator
Aaron Halterman | Win |
9Big Jake
|
|---|---|
| Place |
7Act of Parliament
|
| Show |
3Interrogator
|
| Next Best |
8Find No Fault
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #9 Big Jake
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 3,7,9 BOX
Trifecta - 3,7,8,9 BOX
Superfecta - 3,7,8,9 BOX
Jared Welch | Win |
3Interrogator
|
|---|---|
| Place |
9Big Jake
|
| Show |
7Act of Parliament
|
| Next Best |
14Brave Pilot
|
- Best Bet
- $10 Win - #3 Interrogator
- More Suggested Bets
-
Exacta - 3,7,9 BOX
Trifecta - 3,7,9,14 BOX
Superfecta - 3,7,9,14 BOX
Multi-Race Bets
| Race | Bet Type | Bet Details | Bet Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $.50 Pick 5 | 3,11 / 1,4,8 / 5,6,9,12 / 4,5 / 3,7,9,10 | $96 |
| 2 | $.50 Pick 4 | 4,8 / 5,6,9,12 / 4,5 / 3,7,9,10 | $32 |
| 3 | $.50 Pick 5 | 5,6,9,12 / 4,5 / 3,9 / 4,6,10 / 2,3,4,8 | $96 |
| 4 | $.50 Pick 4 | 4,5 / 3,9 / 4,6,10 / 2,3,4,8 | $24 |
| 5 | $.50 Pick 5 | 3,7,9 / 2,4,6,10 / 2,3,4,8 / 1,6 / 4,12 | $96 |
| 6 | $.50 Pick 4 | 2,4,6,10 / 2,3,4,8 / 1,6 / 4,12 | $32 |
| 8 | $.50 Pick 5 | 1,6 / 4,7,8,12 / 6 / 3,6,9 / 1,6,7,8,12,14,15,18 | $96 |
| 9 | $.50 Pick 4 | 4,7,8,12 / 6 / 3,6,9 / 1,6,7,8,12,14,15,18 | $48 |
| 10 | $.50 Pick 5 | 6,7 / 3,6,9 / 1,6,12,18 / 8,11 / 3,7,8,9 | $96 |
| 11 | $.50 Pick 4 | 3,6,9 / 1,6,12,18 / 8,11 / 3,7,8,9 | $48 |
Consensus Picks
| Race | Aaron Halterman | Jared Welch | Mike "Papa Dude" Halterman | Vinny Blond | Jon White | AI | Best Speed | Best Long Shot | Consensus |
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10 Trends to Know
Kentucky Derby 152
The blueprint to Derby winners—10 trends you can’t afford to ignore.
Trend 1: Early Class Matters
Notes
Only four horses in the last 50 years have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes at 2 or before March 31 of their 3-year-old season: Genuine Risk, Sunny’s Halo, Mine That Bird, and Always Dreaming.
Takeaway
If they didn’t step up early, they’re already behind. This race doesn’t wait for late bloomers—you better have been battle-tested against real competition.
Trend 2: Proven Winners Only
Notes
Since 1973, only six Kentucky Derby winners failed to win a graded stakes race prior to the Derby.
Takeaway
No class, no chance. If they haven’t proven they can win at the graded level, history says they’re not winning this.
2026 Horses That Fit This Negative Trend:
Chief Wallabee, Pavlovian, Right to Party, Danon Bourbon, Chip Honcho, Great White
Trend 3: Be There Turning for Home
Notes
59 of the last 62 Derby winners were 1st or 2nd with a furlong to go in at least one of their final prep races.
Takeaway
You better be in the fight turning for home. Deep closers sound fun… until they’re spinning their wheels passing tired horses for 5th.
Trend 4: No Last-Minute Experiments
Notes
No Kentucky Derby winner in over 50 years has added or removed blinkers in their final prep.
Takeaway
This isn’t the time to experiment. You want a finished product—not a horse whose connections are still guessing. Yeah… we’re looking at you, Chief Wallabee.
Trend 5: No Layoff Legends
Notes
Excluding 2020, no horse has crossed the wire first in the Derby off a layoff of six weeks or longer in nearly 70 years.
Takeaway
Recency matters. Fitness matters. You don’t show up to the biggest race of your life off the couch.
2026 Red Flags: Fulleffort, Emerging Market, Pavlovian, Incredibolt, Golden Tempo, Stark Contrast, Chip Honcho.
Trend 6: Experience at 2 Is (Almost) Mandatory
Notes
Only three horses ever—Apollo, Justify, and Mage—have won the Derby without racing at age 2.
Takeaway
Can it happen? Sure. Is it likely? Not even close. You’re asking a horse to do something almost no one ever has.

2026 trying it anyway: The Puma, Emerging Market, Potente, Chief Wallabee.
Trend 7: You Need More Than Potential
Notes
Horses with just one or two lifetime starts almost never win the Derby. Leonatus (1883) is the lone exception.
Takeaway
You can’t fake experience in this race. If they haven’t been through the fire, they’re probably not suddenly becoming legends.
 (Cough) Emerging Market (cough).
Trend 8: Fade the Internationals
Notes
In the last 50 years, horses with experience outside the U.S. and Canada are 0-for-50 in the Derby. Exclusively international runners are 0-for-18 since 1992.
Takeaway
Different racing styles, different surfaces, different everything—and it hasn’t translated. Until it does, we’re fading.

2026 internationals: Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean, Six Speed.
Trend 9: Dead Rail
Notes
Post 1 hasn’t produced a winner since 1986. Post 2 hasn’t since 1978.
Takeaway
The inside is a nightmare in a 20-horse cavalry charge. Traffic, pressure, no escape route.
Until proven otherwise… these are auto toss territory.
Trend 10: Pedigree Legends
Notes
13 of the last 16 Derby winners were sired by stallions who won a Grade 1 race at 1 1/16 miles or longer.
Takeaway
Distance pedigree isn’t optional—it’s everything. If they’re not bred to get the trip, good luck getting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.
2026 pedigree players: Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade, Fulleffort, The Puma, Emerging Market, Potente, Pavlovian, Right to Party, Incredibolt, Golden Tempo, Iron Honor, Danon Bourbon, Chief Wallabee, Litmus Test, Napoleon Solo.
