Welcome to the 2022 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse.
You can also visit our Kentucky Derby page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more!
Let’s take a look at our latest list leading up to this weekend’s Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs:
1. Messier
Pros: Multiple graded stakes winner; 103 Beyer in recent victory
Cons: Lost to Slow Down Andy
Outlook: He put up the first “wow” performance of the year when he come home victories in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) by 15-lengths. However, he’s trained by Baffert, so who knows if he’ll even be in the Kentucky Derby when all is said on done. Regardless, he set the standard with that victory, and they all have to prove they’re up to his level as of right now.
2. Smile Happy
Pros: Perfect record; graded stakes victory over the Churchill Downs surface; horses he beat keep coming back and winning
Cons: Speed figures still a bit low
Outlook: His Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) victory was pretty impressive, while many of the runners behind him have come back to win. He showed a burst of speed late in both starts so far. We’ll see him in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds for his 2022 debut.
3. Emmanuel
Pros: Solid debut effort at Gulfstream Park; followed up with an easy Tampa Bay allowance victory
Cons: Speed figure aren’t flashy; still no stakes experience
Outlook: This horse has looked ultra-impressive in both of his starts, and has the look of being Todd Pletcher’s best horse. Stakes company will definitely be next.
4. White Abarrio
Pros: Only loss came to our second ranked horse; showed improvement in 2022 debut Holy Bull Stakes (G3) victory
Cons: All wins have come at Gulfstream Park.
Outlook: This colt stamped himself as a player with a pretty easy and dominant win in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. His early running style is what you in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
5. Epicenter
Pros: Three solid races in a row; has the early speed needed to be in position
Cons: Recent loss to a 28/1 shot in the Lecomte Stakes (G3)
Outlook: There is still a lot to like about this Steve Asmussen runner, despite the recent runner-up effort in the Lecomte Stakes (G3). He did the dirty work in that one, and should improve as the distances get longer.
6. Slow Down Andy
Pros: Improved greatly in his last start; distance pedigree; defeated our #1 ranked horse.
Cons: Other than 1 race, he’s looked extremely average
Outlook: If his Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) win wasn’t a fluke and he can build off of that effort, then he will be a factor. We’ll see him in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on February 26.
7. Newgrange
Pros: Three straight wins; speed figures are close to what the top group has earned
Cons: Didn’t take a step forward in the Southwest Stakes (G3)
Outlook: There is nothing wrong with being three for three, but he didn’t look flashy in the Southwest Stakes (G3), even though it was a gritty win. He did not seem to like that track at all, which played a factor.
8. Corniche
Pros: Undefeated; Bob Baffert; Champion Juvenile
Cons: Speed figures are low; competition he’s faced has looked bad; still no workouts since the BC.
Outlook: He’ll be the champion 2-year-old with ease while being the clear Kentucky Derby favorite heading into 2022. However, the level of competition that he has faced isn’t great, plus he still hasn’t worked since before the Breeders’ Cup.
9. Forbidden Kingdom
Pros: Very impressive win in the San Vicente Stakes (G2); tremendous trainer
Cons: Unproven around two turns
Outlook: There is no doubt this horse took a major step forward in his San Vicente Stakes (G2) victory. Now, he must show he can do that around two turns in his next challenge, which will likely be the San Felipe Stakes (G2).
10. Simplification
Pros: Earned solid speed figure in recent win; has a distance pedigree; showed versatility in recent start
Cons: Has been inconsistent; struggled out of the gate in last start
Outlook: He may have been the best horse in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), but we’ll never know, after a bad break from the gate found him in last. He still ran well to recover and finish second in that race, though.
11. Mo Donegal
Pros: Excellent pedigree; victory going long
Cons: Unimpressive speed figures; Remsen winner hasn’t done much in a long time on the Derby Trail; third in 2022 debut
Outlook: Even though he was third in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), that race was a little short for him, but should set him up well for his next start. He has a bit more talent than the other recent Remsen Stakes (G2) winners, so you need to take him seriously moving forward.
12. Call Me Midnight
Pros: Solid victory in the Lecomte Stakes (G3); Solid trainer
Cons: Several losses on the resume; running style
Outlook: He threw his name into the hat with an impressive victory in the Lecomte Stakes (G3); however, his running style of coming from behind will always leave him with a lot to do.
13. Early Voting
Pros: Undefeated 2 for 2; win at 1 1/8 miles
Cons: Speed figures are low; no wins outside of Aqueduct
Outlook: His Withers Stakes (G3) victory was solid enough; however, he will have to step his game up when facing better competition.
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14. Zandon
Pros: Solid in both of his starts so far; should improve
Cons: Low speed figures
Outlook: His runner-up effort in the Remsen Stakes (G2) was impressive considering it was his first time going two turns. If he can improve, he might be one that can rise up the rankings.
15. Pappacap
Pros: Consistent runner; Grade 2 winner
Cons: Four clear losses when running against solid competition
Outlook: He seems like the type that will hit the board in a lot of races, but might not be good enough to win one of the big ones. Until proven otherwise, that is how we’re going to label him.
16. Make It Big
Pros: Undefeated in three starts, all victories were decisive
Cons: Class remains a question mark
Outlook: He passed his first test with flying colors, shipping to Remington Park and winning the Springboard Mile Stakes. He earned an 84 Beyer for the victory, which is solid for that time of year.
17. In Due Time
Pros: Impressive victory last time; should be good going two-turns
Cons: No stakes experience; figures a smidge below the top ones
Outlook: Let’s see if this impressive allowance winner can crank it up a notch and successfully take on stakes company next time out. He looks ready to give it a try.
18. Chasing Time
Pros: Impressive win going two turns; solid pedigree
Cons: Speed figures are still low
Outlook: He made a name for himself with an impressive win against allowance runners at Oaklawn Park. Now, he will likely go to the Rebel Stakes (G2), where he will have to prove he can do it against tougher competition.
19. Doppelganger
Pros: Solid debut effort at Los Alamitos
Cons: Off the board finish against stakes horses
Outlook: This horse looked pretty professional on debut, sitting a little off the pace, and then pouncing late for an easy debut victory. However, he didn’t look nearly as good in the San Vicente Stakes (G2), but that race could have been a little short for him. He’s still a player until we see him around two turns.
20. Classic Causeway
Pros: Second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), which is becoming a key race
Cons: Has struggled to finish the deal against stakes horses.
Outlook: This one has some talent, and nice early speed, but just needs to learn how to finish. If he does, he could become very dangerous, very quickly. We’ll see what he does this weekend in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.
