Somo’s Pick 6: Week 4 NFL and College Football Free Picks

Boom!  What a start!  Another 4-2 week adds an additional $275 to the total and we are now 12-6 for the year and +7U ($700) on the 6-pack picks.  The honorable mentions popped off another undefeated week going 3-0 and running up to a 9-0 YTD record (+9.63U).

I thought this was a tough week, but was able to find a couple I like even with Barstool sports blowing up my Alabama 1H / 1Q spot.  They posted that Bama is now 12-0 ATS in their last 12 1^st Halves.

Duke vs. North Carolina (-20)

Known as more of a basketball match up, this isn’t exactly a barn burner on the football field.  The Tar Heels year has not going as expected, but it’s time to get right here vs. a rival they would love to pummel at home.  North Carolina is way, way more talented and Duke slightly overrated after wins over other basement dwellers Kansas and Northwestern.  UNC needs this game, they will be fully revved up and, while I don’t like laying 20, North Carolina should score at will.

The Bet – $110 to win $100 – North Carolina -20

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints – Total 41.5

You won’t confuse either of these teams for tracks stars this season as they have been dead nuts under teams.  New Orleans has one of the shortest average pass yards attempted and runs the clock to control the game.  The Giants aren’t great but will want to try to lead with Barkley.  I doubt it works, but it will grind the clock and bring this game to a crawl.  If you can find the 1H Under 21.5, I would take that.  At the time I am writing this, it’s not available (it’s 21) so I am playing the full game.

The Bet – $110 to win $100 – Under 42

Pittsburg Steelers vs Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Big Ben is just done.  We faded him last week vs. Cinny and cruised to an easy win.  Guess what, this Packers team is much better then the Bengals.  I considered Over Ben attempts since the Steelers can’t run the ball and will likely be playing catch up here, but I would rather just take the significantly better team and lay less then a touchdown.

The Bet – $110 to win $100 – Packers -6.5

Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

I was planning on staying away from this game, but man, the Colts are just too banged up.  They will be missing 4 starters on Sunday, including their All-Pro Guard and an additional OL, and could be missing their starting QB and RB as well.  The struggled to score last week vs. the awful Titans defense and will face a tougher test this week vs. the Dolphins D in a warm and humid Miami.  Additionally, Miami needs the game badly after falling last week to the Raiders in OT.  Expect a better effort from Brissett as well after a full week of home practice with the 1’s in a revenge game.

The Bet – $110 to win $100 – Miami -2.5

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-4)

The Rams are coming off a huge win at home vs. Tampa and have owned Arizona the last 6 times they have played.  I am slightly worried that the Rams come out with a little bit of a hangover and that’s why you’ve seen this line drop from -6 down to -4.  The Over is interesting at 54.5, but it’s a little too high for me.  I’m instead going to turn to a player rushing total.  For Arizona to keep pace with Los Angeles, Kyler Murrey will have to use his legs in both designed runs and scrambling.  The inside pressure from Aaron Donald should help force those scrambles and Los Angeles points won’t hurt either.

The Bet – $110 to win $100 – Kyler Murrey Over 35.5 Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos

Denver hasn’t played anyone of note so this will be their first real test.  I expect they pass it with flying colors.  Baltimore is just in a tough spot here.  They had a huge win over Kansas City, then a letdown on the road vs. Detroit.  Now they fly home across a time zone and turn around and fly back to Denver and play in altitude.  It’s just a recipe for disaster.  Denver’s defense should hold up so it will be all about the Denver offense.  Teddy Two Gloves has been solid vs. the blitz this year, which the Ravens love to bring, and I expect he will have a good game through the air.

The Bet – $100 to win $105 – Denver ML +105

That’s it for this weeks’ 6-Pack!  Let’s keep it rolling and lock up another winning week!  I’m planning on playing some Maryland tonight, if you want some Friday action and as always, here’s the other bets that I was considering!

Honorable Mentions:

Wisconsin -1.5

Louisiana Tech +18.5

Detroit Lions +3 (if Fields starts, no bet if it’s Dalton)

Teaser – KC -1 / GB -0.5

Dallas -4