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There were several games that I considered this week as my 5 Best Bets and four of them jumped out at me and that is what I look for when the lines come out. Finding that 5th one has been a challenge and I had a lot of trouble deciding which one to choose. I’m coming off an excellent week as I hit my Lock of the Week for the fourth straight time and also hit both of the upset specials for the fourth straight week. Let’s see if I can keep those streaks going as we head to the betting windows this Saturday, and Sunday.
Arkansas at Georgia: This is a game featuring two good Top-10 teams squaring off in Athens in an important SEC game as well as one with national implications. Arkansas is the surprise team of the year and they are playing at a high level. They dismantled Texas in week 2 and last week knocked off No. 7 Texas A&M ,20-10 showing that they have the physicality to take on an opponent like Georgia. If Arkansas can run the ball and have some success, I think they can make this interesting. Georgia, without a doubt, has a dominant defense. But, when looking further into the numbers, the teams they have played have a combined ranking of 110th out of 130 FBS schools in offense efficiency. So, they haven’t played anyone that has much on offense. The Georgia offense is ranked 32nd and, lost in the discussion of the two teams, is the fact that the Arkansas defense is 12th in the country. I think Arkansas can control the Georgia defense making this game close. Georgia is an 18 point favorite and I think they will win but won’t cover.
PAPA DUDES PICK: Arkansas +18
Boston College at Clemson: Boston College comes into this one with a 4-0 record that is somewhat deceiving. They have defeated 3 nobodies and last week knocked off a decent Missouri team for their best win. Offensively, they have average numbers, but they aren’t inept either and, while everyone thinks Clemson is playing great on defense, the numbers show them as having the 25th best unit. Meanwhile, the Tigers offense is 121st out of 130 schools and the Boston College defense is ranked 21st. Everyone knows that Clemson has had enormous problems scoring. Is this the week they come out of it? Clemson is favored by 15 points. I think they win but I don’t think they cover.
PAPA DUDES PICK: Boston College +15
Baylor at Oklahoma State: I’m not sold on the Bears who come into this one at 4-0. They have played one team that can play and that was an Iowa State team that is struggling. The Bears beat them 31-29 but they were dominated everywhere but the scoreboard. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is also 4-0, and have two straight impressive wins over Boise State and Kansas State. They are tough in Stillwater and they seem to be getting better on offense and figuring some things out. They are 3.5 point favorites.
PAPA DUDES PICK: Oklahoma State -3.5
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech: The Panthers come into Atlanta with a 3-1 record with their best win against a struggling Tennessee. Their lone loss was to unheralded Western Michigan. They are the kind of team that is always around 7-5 and 6-6 at the end of the season. Surprisingly, they have some solid stats but I believe they are skewed by the schedule they have played. After opening the season with a disappointing loss to Northern Illinois, Georgia Tech has come back and are playing much better. They come into this one at 2-2 and came within 6 points of winning at Clemson two weeks ago. Last week, they thrashed North Carolina 45-22 in Atlanta. Pittsburgh is a 3 point favorite.
PAPA DUDES *UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK* Georgia Tech +3
3 OTHERS I CONSIDERED:
Texas Tech at West Virginia: I like West Virginia in this one at -7. They were solid at Oklahoma last week.
Louisiana Tech at NC State: The Wolf Pack won a huge game against Clemson last week. Can they cover the spread? La Tech +18
Tennessee at Missouri: I like the Tigers to cover this one easy. Take Missouri -3
Carolina at Dallas: The Panthers invaded Texas last week as they journeyed to Houston and knocked off the Texans. Now, they head to Dallas and encounter the Cowboys which present a very difficult challenge. Sam Darnold is off to a great start with his new team and he is playing at a high level. A win here and the Panthers will be judged as a team to be reckoned with. Meanwhile, Dallas has an offense that has been very impressive in the first three games of the young season. Dak Prescott has been fantastic and he has a bevy of receivers that can make plays. The running game is getting better each week. The Panthers are going to have to score points and I’m not sure they can score enough. I rode the Dallas train last week and I’m hopping aboard again this week.
PAPA DUDES *LOCK OF THE WEEK* Dallas -4.5
One More to Consider:
Tennessee at New York Jets: Titans should win by more than 7 right? Tennessee -7
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