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2021 Kentucky Oaks Post Position Trends and Analysis
Credit: Coady Photography

2021 Kentucky Oaks Post Position Trends and Analysis

LEXINGTON, KY – Shadwell Stable’s undefeated Malathaat is the 5/2 morning line favorite in a field of 14 3-year-old fillies entered Monday for the 147th running of the $1.25 million Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) to be run at 1 1/8 miles Friday afternoon at Churchill Downs.

“I’m basically fine with the draw,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “I probably would have preferred to be a bit more toward the middle but if it was a case of drawing inside or outside, I’ll take the outside. It’ll work out fine.”

Post position is important in every race, but in a race like the Kentucky Oaks this year with 14 horses, it’s vital. How do you feel about Malathaat drawing post 10 toward the outside? Here are the trends you need to know before you make your pick.

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Kentucky Oaks Post Position Trends

Looking back at the last 10 runnings of the Kentucky Oaks, an outside draw actually tends to give horses an edge. In fact, in the past 10 years, horses exiting from post position 9 or higher won at an incredible 70% clip!

Here are the most recent winning Kentucky Oaks post positions:

2019Serengeti Empress13
2018Monomoy Girl14
2017Abel Tasman13
2016Cathryn Sophia12
2015Lovely Maria7
2013Princess of Sylmar6
2012Believe You Can9
2011Plum Pretty12

When you look at this year’s field for the Kentucky Oaks, the morning line favorite Malathaat drew post 10, which only seems to further increase her chances of winning. Other fillies who could benefit: Will’s Secret, Search Results, Competitive Speed, and Millefeuille.

1Pauline's PearlRicardo Santana Jr.Steve Asmussen20/1
2MaracujaKendrick CarmoucheRob Atras20/1
3ClairiereTyler GaffalioneSteve Asmussen5/1
4Crazy BeautifulJose OrtizKenny McPeek15/1
5Pass the ChampagneJavier CastellanoGeorge Weaver15/1
6Travel ColumnFlorent GerouxBrad Cox3/1
7Ava's GraceDavid CohenRobertino Diodoro50/1
8MorazUmberto RispoliMichael McCarthy30/1
9CoachLuis SaezBrad Cox50/1
10MalathaatJohn VelazquezTodd Pletcher5/2
11Will's SecretJon CourtDallas Stewart30/1
12Search ResultsIrad Ortiz Jr.Chad Brown3/1
13Competitive SpeedChris LanderosJavier Gonzalez50/1
14MillefeuilleJoel RosarioBill Mott20/1

Kentucky Oaks Wagering Guide

For a more in-depth look at the race, including pace projections, check out our Inside Track to the Kentucky Derby wagering guide! Features in-depth analysis of all seven stakes on the card including the $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1). But that’s not all! Get bonus race-by-race analysis and betting suggestions for the entire Kentucky Derby card, PLUS bonus analysis for Friday’s Kentucky Oaks (G1)!

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