Del Mar

Will Arrogate Lose This Week?

Melanie Martines

No.

He’s going to crush the field.

Now that we’ve successfully previewed the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap at Del Mar, let’s talk about something that’s actually interesting and worth your time.

How much money will Arrogate eventually win?

To date, Arrogate has collected a whopping $17,084,600 from 8 career lifetime starts, a marker that has already made him the winningest horse in North American history. With five more projected starts to finish his career, it’s reasonable to think that he can – and should – more than double that before all is said and done.

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You might think I’m crazy. You also might wonder why I projected five more starts before he’s done. Let’s face it: somehow, astoundingly, amazingly, Arrogate will find a way to quadruple his on-track earnings once he goes to stud, and his connections won’t risk that for all the oil in the Middle East. They will, however, first want to repeat a takedown of the twin mega-millions jackpot races in the first quarter of 2018, especially considering that the purses have increased.

Here’s how I predict he will end his career (because unless he injures something – knock on wood – nobody can beat him):

RACE WINNER’S SHARE
As of 7/20/17 $17,084,600
San Diego Handicap $120,000
Pacific Classic $600,000
Breeders’ Cup Classic $3,300,000
Pegasus World Cup *$9,300,000
Dubai World Cup **$6,000,000
Grand Total $36,404,600
*based on winner’s percentage of 2018 purse (58% of $16m) unchanging from percentage of 2017 purse (58% of $12m)
**based on winner’s percentage of and total amount of 2018 purse (60% of $10m) unchanging from winner’s percentage of and total amount of 2017 purse (60% of $10m)

Not so crazy now, am I? But, wait – it gets better.

The 2018 Dubai World Cup has yet to announce the purse structure. What was once the world’s richest race with a $10m purse has been overshadowed since the 2017 Pegasus World Cup debuted last year with a $12m purse. If you thought that move irked Sheikh Mohammed, imagine how he reacted when the Stronach Group announced that the 2018 edition of the Pegasus would be getting a raise – to $16m.

We’re now left to choose between one of two options:

1. Sheikh Mohammed does his best Conor McGregor impression

2. Sheikh Mohammed does his best Floyd Mayweather impression

Rumblings shortly after the 2017 race indicated that Sheikh Mohammed would do whatever it took to regain the title of World’s Richest Race, with some predicting that the purse would double to $20m. Doubling the purse means doubling the winnings, and that would put Arrogate over the $42m mark.

With each passing day, Arrogate’s time draws closer to an end. We are treated to greatness every time that he steps onto the track, so appreciate it while you can. We may never see another one like him.

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