Del Mar

Will Arrogate Lose This Week?

Melanie Martines


He’s going to crush the field.

Now that we’ve successfully previewed the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap at Del Mar, let’s talk about something that’s actually interesting and worth your time.

How much money will Arrogate eventually win?

To date, Arrogate has collected a whopping $17,084,600 from 8 career lifetime starts, a marker that has already made him the winningest horse in North American history. With five more projected starts to finish his career, it’s reasonable to think that he can – and should – more than double that before all is said and done.

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You might think I’m crazy. You also might wonder why I projected five more starts before he’s done. Let’s face it: somehow, astoundingly, amazingly, Arrogate will find a way to quadruple his on-track earnings once he goes to stud, and his connections won’t risk that for all the oil in the Middle East. They will, however, first want to repeat a takedown of the twin mega-millions jackpot races in the first quarter of 2018, especially considering that the purses have increased.

Here’s how I predict he will end his career (because unless he injures something – knock on wood – nobody can beat him):

As of 7/20/17 $17,084,600
San Diego Handicap $120,000
Pacific Classic $600,000
Breeders’ Cup Classic $3,300,000
Pegasus World Cup *$9,300,000
Dubai World Cup **$6,000,000
Grand Total $36,404,600
*based on winner’s percentage of 2018 purse (58% of $16m) unchanging from percentage of 2017 purse (58% of $12m)
**based on winner’s percentage of and total amount of 2018 purse (60% of $10m) unchanging from winner’s percentage of and total amount of 2017 purse (60% of $10m)

Not so crazy now, am I? But, wait – it gets better.

The 2018 Dubai World Cup has yet to announce the purse structure. What was once the world’s richest race with a $10m purse has been overshadowed since the 2017 Pegasus World Cup debuted last year with a $12m purse. If you thought that move irked Sheikh Mohammed, imagine how he reacted when the Stronach Group announced that the 2018 edition of the Pegasus would be getting a raise – to $16m.

We’re now left to choose between one of two options:

1. Sheikh Mohammed does his best Conor McGregor impression

2. Sheikh Mohammed does his best Floyd Mayweather impression

Rumblings shortly after the 2017 race indicated that Sheikh Mohammed would do whatever it took to regain the title of World’s Richest Race, with some predicting that the purse would double to $20m. Doubling the purse means doubling the winnings, and that would put Arrogate over the $42m mark.

With each passing day, Arrogate’s time draws closer to an end. We are treated to greatness every time that he steps onto the track, so appreciate it while you can. We may never see another one like him.



  1. Joe

    July 20, 2017 at 7:23 pm

    Read some comments that Baffert said his last races will be at Del Mar. hopefully that isn’t the case.

  2. Curtis Kalleward

    July 20, 2017 at 11:10 pm

    Agree with your hopefulness. I just can’t foresee his connections passing up a chance at $15-20 million in 2 races. The only way I do is if he looks vulnerable/loses in Breeders’ Cup.

  3. Alex Williams-Thomas

    July 22, 2017 at 10:10 pm

    Del Mar 7/22/2017. Witness one of the biggest race fixing scams of all time, Baffert style.
    How will he and Smith talk their way out of this. One would not necessarily jump to this conclusion but for the weight of cash placed on the eventual winner bringing his odds down from 20/1 to 7/1. just before the off whilst the favorite was still at 1/9 or something higher due to regular punters money. Tell me, Who would be so sure that they were going to beat Arrogate and back him accordingly.

    If this race was run in Europe, the entire connections of Arrogate would have been before the stewards to explain the running of Arrogate. You know, doing their job to protect integrity in the industry. Here, the stewards just show up for their tea and biscuits. It’s so corrupt.

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