HOT NFL Player Props Action! | Slim Pickins Debuts; New TNF Halftime Show Announced!

Welcome to Slim Pickins NFL Player Props, the product that is more than just picks!

Betting and winning in the long run on NFL player props is more than picking players that you think are going to do well each week.

Yes, most of our time will be spent analyzing players, the defenses they’re playing and game script (i.e., if a team will be playing from behind or expected to be sitting on a big lead early). We’ll spend plenty of time digging into the injuries from week-to-week that may help players emerge and how certain players are trending, but Player Handicapping is just one of the four major components of betting and winning in the long run playing player props.
The Foundational Four for Player Props is:

Player Handicapping
Wagering Strategy
Bankroll Management
Discipline

After Player Handicapping, Wagering Strategy is the next skill to master.

So you like a wide receiver this week. Is the best bet a straight wager? Do you like him enough to play a 2-part or even 3-part parlay with his quarterback or go out on a limb that he’ll score a touchdown that week? From week-to-week, we will need to pick our spots accordingly and make the right call when pulling the trigger (or hitting Submit on our betting apps) on your top “Prime Plays” and “Action Plays” of the week.

We’ll get more into Player Handicapping and Wagering Strategy in the Picks articles coming out later this week, but right now we’ll start with Bankroll Management to start the season in out first article. Every week I will look to write about a part of the four cornerstones of NFL player props to help educate our readers beyond just telling you that I think a guy is gonna go over.

The betting apps ain’t gonna teach you how to actually gamble. They don’t want you to win. The former football players and coaches on TV are probably betting for the first time in their lives like many of you who are now getting this access for the first time for a full season.

I’ve been gambling on horse racing for 30 years and have been in fantasy football leagues since that same time in 1992 (we got the stats in the newspaper back then and scored by pencil & pad). I have won an award for handicapping journalism and have angles / strategies that I want to develop with you all as a community on our “Slim & Somo Thursday Night Halftime Show” each week with one of the best handicappers in the country Mike “Somobomb” Somich. I will also be hosting a Friday afternoon Twitter Spaces, so make sure to follow me on Twitter @SaratogaSlim to join along!

So now you know what I’m about, let’s start our education on Bankroll Management.

It starts with a very important question to ask yourself:
“How much am I willing to lose this NFL season betting player props?”

Sounds crazy for a tout to ask you how much you want to lose, but I’m not a tout. I know it sounds corny, but I really want to use my 30 years experience betting on horse racing and playing fantasy football to help this NFL community understand how to bet responsibly, be able to enjoy the games and beat the house winning enough to make this season an overall enjoyable experience.
For example, say I want to budget $100 a week on player prop bets. Therefore, over 22 weeks of the NFL season including playoffs, I need to be willing to lose $2,200 this season. I need to look at my bank account and say to myself, “Can I afford to lose that much money over the next 6 months?” If you say yes and you can still pay your rent / mortgage and your expenses, then that’s your bankroll for the season.

Of course we don’t plan to lose every bet to put us down $2,200, but that number needs to not hurt your financial situation. Stay within that number. It’ll make you feel comfortable with your wagers. Remember the saying, “Scared money don’t make money.” You can’t play scared that you can’t pay for your home if you lose this bet. This money should be your disposable income or your entertainment budget for the week.

Therefore, using that $100 weekly budget, how do we build out our Bankroll Management?

We utilize what’s called the unit structure. I’m focusing on picking my spots wisely each week (not betting every game, just my strongest opinions), so I’m only looking to make 4 or 5 prime plays each week.

I’ll also likely make 3 action bets each week (mostly on Thursday night, Sunday night and Monday night football), so in total, I’ll probably want to make only 7 or 8 bets each week.

If I use $10 as my unit size that should give me the flexibility to make the bets I want each week. Betting three Prime Plays (my strongest opinions of the week) as straight bets at $20 (2 units) each week brings my bets to $60. If I go 2 out of 3 on my Prime Plays, I should still be able to come out a little bit ahead.

I’ll want to take a couple swings each week with 2- and 3-part parlays as Prime Plays for $10 (1 unit) each adding another $20 to my weekly bets.

A couple action plays, possibly straight bets at 1 unit each adds another $20 to my bets for the week and now I’m at my $100 budget.

Before we start the picks in my next articles, please set your budget for the year, for each week and decide on your unit size.

This sets you up to enjoy the year and have a plan to follow. Keeping to that plan is the Discipline you must build to be successful over a long period of time. Gambling has its ups and downs, but being disciplined to not reach and get loose with your bets is the next topic to tackle next week!

Enjoy the picks and please tweet at me @SaratogaSlim or e-mail me at slim@racingdudes.com with any questions.