Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects #5

New to the Top 20: California Chrome, Ring Weekend, Vinceremos, Kobe’s Back

Dropped Out: Top Billing, Shared Belief, Bayern, Midnight Hawk

With the Kentucky Derby fast approaching, you can find odds information by clicking here: 2014 Kentucky Derby Odds

1. Cairo Prince – With Top Billing now off the Derby trail, Cairo Prince assumes the top spot for the first time this year.  He’s ran the best and most consistent races out of any of the others in the crop, and his competition in the Holy Bull that he beat have come back to run well.  The Florida Derby is up next for him.

2. Tapiture – It’s Rebel week, which means round two of the showdown between Tapiture and Strong Mandate.  Tapiture is plenty talented, but whether or not he can get the mile and one-quarter is still in question.  That question won’t have to be answered this weekend, but they only get longer after the Rebel.

3. Strong Mandate – The tough luck Strong Mandate gets another shot this week at Tapiture in the Rebel Stakes, and hopefully he can finally get a half way decent trip.  The talent and ability are there, now we’ll see if the maturity level can rise to match that ability.  If it does, he can become the number one horse in the crop.

4. Candy Boy – It looks like he’ll have a legit threat in the Santa Anita Derby as California Chrome was impressive last weekend.  Still liking this one a bit more, especially with the added distance.

5. Samraat – Quietly moving up the ranks!  The colt has don’t nothing wrong, but will be tested with the extra distance of the Wood Memorial next time out.  That seems to be the only question mark on him.

6. California Chrome – Welcome to the Kentucky Derby picture California Chrome!  You can never quite trust a state bred until you see them against open company, but just like Samraat this guy proved he’s for real in a big way as he crushed open company in the San Felipe.  His beyer number is the highest of any horse in the crop.  Will he travel well?

7. Intense Holiday – It’s odd that you still don’t hear much buzz about Intense Holiday, but he’s looking better and better everyday.  The horse is scheduled to run in the Louisiana Derby next, and you can bet his running style will fit in quite well once he gets to Kentucky.

8. Honor Code – Skipping the Rebel and running in an allowance Wednesday at Gulfstream.  Seems like a curious move, and one that will make his only Derby prep race an all or nothing shot.  The move makes me skeptical…

9. Constitution – He’s a perfect two for two, but he has not faced stakes company yet.  His last victory at Gulfstream was against a super group of allowance horses which might project that he will be able to handle the jump up in class that is sure to happen next time out.

10. Ring Weekend – Absolute runaway winner of the Tampa Bay Derby came out of nowhere!!  The trip and set up were perfect for him, but I still like that he drew away from this field nicely.  It may have not been the strongest group, but this runner proved he has to be taken seriously.

11. Uncle Sigh – The Kentucky Derby distance is a serious question mark, but you can’t underestimate this ones heart.  The rivalry with him and Samraat has been a bright spot during the early prep races.

12. Bobby’s Kitten – He’s back, and he looked as good as ever!  We all are skeptical as to if he can run a step on the dirt, and if he makes the Kentucky Derby it will be his first start on something other than turf of poly track.  He has an all or nothing shot at the Derby as he’s scheduled for the Bluegrass Stakes in April.

13. Wildcat Red – Believe he’s more of a miler, but he has run very fast races and deserves to be ranked for now.  The Florida Derby will tell us if he stays in the rankings.

14. General A Rod – Recently defeated by Wildcat Red, but the added distance of the Florida Derby will most likely help him turn the tables next time out.  He’s probably the better of the two prospects when projecting who will run well in the Kentucky Derby.

15. Commissioner – Very curious to see where he ends up next, and how well he runs.  I was very high on him in the Fountain of Youth, but that track did him no favors.  Still think he could be something special…

16. Vinceremos – New to the list and very deserving off two consistent Tampa Bay efforts.  He’s not going to blow you away with his talent, but he’s the kind of horse that will find his way into the Derby field just by being an honest effort kind of horse.

17. Albano – Narrowly defeated by Intense Holiday in the Risen Star, and will look to turn the tables on him next time out in the Louisiana Derby.  Trainer Larry Jones knows how to get them ready so you can’t count Albano out.

18. In Trouble – Was very impressed with his effort in the Gotham last time out off a long layoff.  Now the question is whether he can repeat that again, and find himself a spot in the Derby

19. Tamarando – Hard knocking and honest horse, but perhaps a little short on talent.  He’s got a great shot to make the Derby, but perhaps not a great shot at winning it.  Could see him passing tired horse late though…maybe a superfecta crasher. 

20. Kobe’s Back – We’ll find out how he does going two turns this weekend in a tough Rebel Stakes.  If he can carry his speed going longer, he could be especially dangerous.

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More information on the KDFW is available at www.KentuckyDerby.com.