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There’s now less than two weeks to the Kentucky Derby (G1), which has all of us handicapping diligently searching for long shots that could bring us a massive score. This year, the superfecta could pay $20,000 or more, with a crop of 3-year-olds who have been far from consistent. The great thing about betting the Kentucky Derby is the prices you can get on horses who should be much lower odds. Even if the favorite wins the race, the exotics will still pay massive, with a 20 horse field spreading out the money in a lot of different ways. With that being said, here are three long shot horses who could help make the Superfecta payout a life-changing amount this year.
After terrible trips in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Blue Grass Stakes (G2), he could be dangerous at a big price in this race. Even with poor trips, he still showed a willingness to keep trying, closing quickly in both races to get up and hit the board. Obviously, the worry will once again be the trip, but it is a good sign that he has already faced adversity, and still came running at the end. In his last two races, his style has been to drop back and make one run; however, at times in his career he has shown a bit of tactical speed. He’ll have to show that kind of tactical speed to have a shot to win this race. To hit the board, he just needs to finish up like he has in his last couple of starts.
This is the most logical underneath horse to use in the race. His chances of winning in this spot are close to zero; however, he has shown in all of his races that he could be a Lookin At Lee, Keen Ice, or Ice Box type of horse. All of those horses would come with a nice run at the end, they just couldn’t ever get all the way up for the win. Country House showed that same thing in all three of his prep races this year, finishing second in the Risen Star (G2), fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G3), and third in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He has also performed well on multiple surfaces and at multiple race tracks. All the signs point to him being in the underneath spots of the trifecta or superfecta on the first Saturday in May.
Many will bypass this horse, and for good reason with him still being a maiden. He also is technically still on the outside looking in, ranked 21st on the Kentucky Derby Points List, but he is the first one in with any defection that might happen between now and then. He may still be a maiden; however, this horse is steadily improving with each race, while also improving as the distances get longer. In the Florida Derby (G1) he was a non-threatening second to Maximum Security, who might end up being one of the favorites in the race. He also defeated Code of Honor in that race, who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), and who will probably be half the price of Bodexpress on Derby day. Finally, his running style should suit this race perfectly, which will give him a tactical advantage over most of the field. This is the type of year where a maiden can hit the board in the Kentucky Derby.
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